Obama leads; Romney with chance in electoral race

November 4, 2012 @ 5:18 pm


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Associated Press

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - President Barack Obama enters the final hours of the 2012 campaign with an edge in the hunt for the 270 electoral votes needed to win and more ways to reach that magic number. Yet the race is remarkably close in at least six states that could go either way, giving Republican Mitt Romney hope that he can pull off a come-from-behind victory.

If the election were held now, an Associated Press analysis found that Obama would be all but assured of 249 votes, by carrying 20 states that are solidly Democratic or leaning his way _ Iowa, Nevada and Pennsylvania among them _ and the District of Columbia. Romney would lay claim to 206, from probable victories in 24 states that are strong Republican turf or tilt toward the GOP, including North Carolina.

Up for grabs are 83 electoral votes spread across Colorado, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Of those, Republicans and Democrats alike say Obama seems in a bit better shape than Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, while Romney appears to be performing slightly better than Obama or has pulled even in Florida and Virginia.

The AP's analysis is not meant to be predictive, but instead to provide a snapshot of a race that has been extraordinarily close from the outset. The analysis is based on interviews with more than a dozen Republican and Democratic strategists in Washington and in the most contested states; public polls; internal campaign surveys; early vote figures; spending on television advertising; candidate travel; and get-out-the-vote organizations.

Both Republicans and Democrats say Tuesday's election has tightened across the board the homestretch. Many factors are adding to the uncertainty, including early vote tallies, Election Day turnout and the impact of Superstorm Sandy in the East. There's no telling the impact of Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, who's on the ballot in 48 states, including all the battlegrounds, or Virgil Goode, an ex-congressman from Virginia who's running on the Constitution Party ticket.

But here's perhaps the biggest issue complicating efforts to get a handle on where the race really stands: different assumptions that each party's pollsters are making about the demographic makeup of the electorate. Republicans are anticipating that the body of voters who end up casting ballots will be more like the 2004 electorate, heavily white and male. Democrats argue that 2012 voters as a whole will look more like the electorate of four years ago when record numbers of minorities and young people turned out.

The difference has meant wildly disparate polling coming from Republicans and Democrats, with each side claiming that it's measuring voter attitudes more precisely than the opposition.

Said Republican strategist Phil Musser: "The conviction with which both sides say they are on a trajectory to victory is unique."

Tuesday will determine which side is correct. For now, the gulf between the two sides' polling has made it difficult to judge which candidate is faring better in the six up-for-grabs states.

In the final hours of the campaign, national polls show a neck-and-neck race for the popular vote.

But it's the Electoral College vote that elects the president. In that state-by-state race, Obama long has had the advantage because he's started with more states _ and votes _ in his column, giving him more ways to cobble together the victories he needs to reach 270. Romney has had fewer states and votes, and, thus few paths _ though victory remained within his reach.

Said Mo Elleithee, a Democratic strategist who specializes in Virginia: "A 1 percent shift in any demographic group in Virginia is the difference between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney being president. That's how close this election is."

Over the past month, Romney's standing in national polls improved following strong performances in the October debates, and he's strengthened his position in several states, including Colorado, Florida and Virginia.

But all three are too close to call and both Romney and Obama had final weekend campaign appearances in them, underscoring their fluidity. Romney has gained ground in North Carolina, which now is tipping his way. Obama's team has all but acknowledged that it's the weakest for the Democrat of the competitive states, and the president himself isn't visiting the state in the final stretch.

But the key for both campaigns is the Midwest, specifically Ohio. It offers 18 electoral votes and figures prominently in each strategy. That urgency was evident by the multiple visits to the state by each candidate in the final days.

Obama has enough of an edge in the electoral race that he could win the White House without carrying Ohio. But it's hard to see how Romney does so.

That assessment, and Obama's slight but stubbornly persistent edge in the state, could explain why Romney made a late-game play for Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes. He began advertising heavily in the state last week and put a stop in Philadelphia on his Sunday schedule even though the state has voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1988.

Democrats projected confidence about holding Pennsylvania, although Obama responded with his own ads in the state and was sending former President Bill Clinton to campaign for him there on Monday.

Not that Romney is writing off Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without winning the state, and, without it, Romney would need a near sweep of the other battleground states.

"Ohio, you're probably going to decide the next president of the United States," Romney said Friday at a plant near Columbus.

Refusing to cede ground in Ohio, Obama's campaign is flooding the state with four visits in as many days to every major media market by the president, first lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Clinton. Obama planned to finish campaigning in Ohio on Monday at a Columbus rally with rocker Bruce Springsteen.

Obama's team was projecting confidence in Ohio, arguing that the renewed debate in the final weeks over the auto industry financial bailout _ which Obama signed and Romney has criticized _ has boosted the president at the right time while undercutting Romney. Republicans in the state don't dispute that characterization, and Obama has kept the heat on Romney over a TV ad he's running that misleadingly suggests that the auto bailout helped U.S. auto giants send jobs to China.

"This isn't a game. These are people's jobs. These are people's lives," Obama told a raucous crowd in Friday in a Columbus suburb. "You don't scare hard-working Americans just to scare up some votes."

Wisconsin, the home state of GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, also figures prominently in the calculations for both sides, but, again, is more critical for Romney, who is looking to stop Obama in the Rust Belt.

Here's why: Obama surest path to a second term cuts through both Ohio and Wisconsin, and victories in those states would give him 271 electoral votes as long as he wins all of the states that are solidly Democratic or tilting his way.

Those include:

_Iowa, where public and internal campaign polls show Obama with an edge even though Romney has campaigned in the state a half-dozen times in the past two weeks and has spent the final hours of the campaign working to narrow Obama's edge in early voting. Both candidates were in Iowa on Saturday, and Romney was back Sunday playing hard for late-deciders his team is confident will break their way and make the difference.

Obama planned to return to the state Monday. Republicans characterized that visit as a sign of instability while Obama's team said he wanted to end his campaign in the state whose 2008 caucuses put him on the road to the presidency.

_Nevada, where Republicans and Democrats say the president has gained ground over the past few weeks, despite high unemployment and foreclosures. Obama seems to be benefiting from the state's large Hispanic voting bloc and political machinery of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Romney all but acknowledged the president had an edge in the states. He scrapped plans to visit the state in the final two days. Instead, he sent Ryan.

___

Associated Press writers Charles Babington in Florida, Brian Bakst in Virginia, Julie Pace in New Hampshire, Steve Peoples in Iowa and Ken Thomas in Washington contributed to this report.


(Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
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Comments (14)


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  • HPD 5-0 wrote...
    I see "the media" has already annointed the "messiah".
    September 30, 2012 7:03 am
    All in an effort to convince those undecided that it's over. And the beat goes on....the end IS near.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CldWtrSrf wrote...
    Good thing that it doesn't reall matter...
    October 1, 2012 8:38 am
    Which one of the 2 win. Mittens and Barry, 2 sides of the EXACT same coin. Obama wins, country plunges into chaos and Civil War within 1 1/2 years....Romney wins, country plunges into chaos and Civil War within 3 years. NO DIFFERENCE!! Barry and Mittens are OWNED by the very same oligarch Globalist Masters. It makes NO DIFFERENCE which one of them "wins", we American's are SCREWED either way because the are exactly the same. I don't see how it's even possible for Mittens to "win" anyway, all the votes are going to be cast on machines and "counted" in Spain by a company owned by George Soros. You know, George Soros, the guy that is a HUGE supporter of Barry, runs Media Matters and is HEAVILY invested in Halliburton and was a Nazi Collaborator? You know, George Soros who recently sold half of his stock holdings and reinvested all that $ in GOLD? Yeah, that guy. If people like George Soros are getting out of the counterfeit Federal Reserve Dollars then they know that SOMETHING is coming very soon that is going to end America as we know it and are hedging their bets. It makes ZERO difference which one of the puppets Mittens or Barry are "elected", this is a plan of destruction by the Banksters that is soon coming to fruition. Keep eating up the THEATER though that keeps all you Sheeple occupied and not paying attention to what is really going on.-----"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."--Thomas Jefferson. A lot of his writing are about to come true!!!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Ronn wrote...
    Media Disgrace in Biased Reporting
    September 30, 2012 7:15 am
    This election coverage has confirmed the biased media majorly influencing what people hear about. The control of the news and what people are allowed to hear about seems almost criminal. What is left out and put into our news is so one sided it is truly a example of controlling of the masses via the information they are exposed to. Something needs to be done about it.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • SickofSeattleite wrote...
    Who believes this steamy pile of dog dodo?
    September 30, 2012 7:17 am
    Anyone can tell nobody is better off and Obama is a monstrosity!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CH wrote...
    I see "the media" has already annointed the "messiah" . . . .
    September 30, 2012 8:29 am
    0-0 : I see "the voters" has already annointed the "messiah". Stock up on jack danial on 11.7.12
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    "Within reach"?
    September 30, 2012 10:30 am
    I thought that Obama had already won this election. An election that has not even happened yet! A regime and Dear Leader that are "riding high" on artificially manufactured ministry of Obama re immac propaganda. Deliberate oversampling of likely Useful Idiot voters. All other independent polls show almost the exact opposite, Romney ahead and in some polls by double digits!

    I will bet you Parrots that this is the "October Surprise" that we have been waiting for.

    Guess what Parrots? We taxpaying Tea parting Americans cannot wait for you people to experience the "November the 6th Surprise" we have in store for your Dear Leader!

    Cheers!

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CH wrote...
    As race stands, Obama won the second term . . . .
    September 30, 2012 11:52 am
    if your a feiend of it's me! Ha ha [can see there being any] you need to spend the night with her. Good job 4 the xClown.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    Invented numbers. Numbers manufactured by the ministry of Obama re immaculation War room.
    September 30, 2012 12:19 pm
    Democrats oversampled more than 11 percent. I suspect that the oversampling is a lot higher than that to get these insane numbers. Independent polls paint a far different picture with Romney well in the lead. Even better than the "Cooked Books" numbers have the Dear Leader up by whatever amount.

    Face it Parrots, just because MSNBC tells you these are the numbers does not make it so!

    I cannot wait for November when the 100 percent accurate poll comes out and it is Bye bye Obama! A one term proposition.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • pacificnw wrote...
    HA HA
    September 30, 2012 3:13 pm
    So..............The FOX news poll is wrong arse whole? Will you promise to go go away when President Obama is re-elected
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • pacificnw wrote...
    He Haw ha the "TEA" bagger
    September 30, 2012 3:16 pm
    A Fox News poll of Virginia voters indicated Obama had a seven point (49%-42%) advantage over Romney. A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times survey in Virginia showed Obama up only four-points (50%-46%) over Romney, while a Washington Post poll had Obama with an eight point (52%-44%) lead over Romney in the Commonwealth. – In Ohio, a Fox News poll said Obama had a seven point (49%-42%) advantage over Romney, while an Ohio survey by The Washington Post put Obama up eight points (52%-44%) over Romney and a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed the president with a 10 point (53%-43%) lead over Romney. – A Fox News Poll of Florida voters showed Obama with a five point (49%-44%) lead over Romney, while The Washington Post survey of Floridians said Obama was up four points (51%-47%) on Romney and a Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times Florida poll indicated that Obama had a nine point (53%-44%) lead on Romney. Hardly a concerted effort to skew poll results in favor of Obama - unless you agree that Fox News is part of the conspiracy. Yet, not all conservatives are accusing the media of manipulating the data. "I do not believe the polls are all wrong," Erick Erickson, editor of the influential conservative web site RedState.com, wrote on Wednesday. "I do not believe there is some intentional, orchestrated campaign to suppress the GOP vote by showing Mitt Romney losing. I actually believe that Mitt Romney trails Barack Obama. "But I also believe the polls are reflecting a bigger Democratic strength than is really there," added Erickson, who is also a political contributor on CNN. Criticizing public polling is hardly a new phenomenon. In fact, it's a regular campaign tactic. What is new in this election cycle is that several polling organizations have started releasing their party identification numbers. And critics are seizing upon this information to formulate a flawed argument attacking the results, comparing party identification from these telephone polls to previous exit polls. It's not a valid comparison. Interviews conducted by telephone prior to an election are much different than talking to a person who has just voted for a candidate. In a telephone interview several months or several weeks before an election, a person might provide a different answer than the one they give after emerging from a voting booth. People's minds can change … which is exactly why there is such an effort by the campaigns to convince the undecided and soft-leaning voters to support their candidate. Keep in mind, party identification is not a characteristic that is set in stone such as someone's race or sex. It can evolve over time and change much like education and income levels. A study conducted a few years ago interviewed the same people six different times during a presidential election and it found that 25 percent of the participants changed their answer on party identification at least three times during the course of the study. Republicans made similar arguments in 2008 when they compared polls taken in that cycle to the 2004 exit polls. And Democrats also voiced the same argument in 2004 by comparing surveys in that election cycle to the exit polls from the 2000 election. In 2008, Democrats won the White House and only four years earlier President George W. Bush won a second term. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, addresses the party identification argument in a September 27, 2012 column. If you are interested in this argument, we think it is worth a read. As is this September 19, 2012 column by Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post. Filed under: 2012
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    pacificnw
    September 30, 2012 6:08 pm
    Like I said we will see about how all those skewed polls affect the way we Americans vote in November. Even if Obama manages to steal this election I will not go away. You Left wing Parrots will have 4 more years of putting up with me telling the truth of your Dear Leader! Ha ha!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CH wrote...
    Numbers manufactured by the ministry of Obama re immaculation War room . . . .
    September 30, 2012 6:36 pm
    Fox News HQ. All tea fools can tell us what went wron on 11.7.12 Anyone seen the xcop?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • C"mon Man wrote...
    Swing States
    September 30, 2012 9:47 pm
    Will decide. States like Ohio,Florida,New Mexico,Pennsylvania,Iowa,N.Carolina, and Colorado,not the media,Hollywood and music industry posers,who let Samuel Jackson into those people's house?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }