WHY IT MATTERS: An election of tipping points

October 23, 2012 @ 12:41 pm


FILE - In this March 22, 2012 file photo, a pumpjack is silhouetted against the setting sun in Oklahoma City. Americans depend on energy for everything from driving their cars to powering factories, homes and offices _ and of course our smart phones, laptops and tablets. How that energy is produced and where it comes from affect jobs, the economy and the environment. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki, File) | Zoom
Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) - Election Day could well determine how much you end up paying in taxes. It could move the bar for fighting future wars. On energy, it could shape the balance between drill-baby-drill (and mine-baby-mine) and some big pollution controls. If you care about Obamacare, this may be your last, best chance to save it or unravel it _ with your vote.

Long after the fuss fades over President Barack Obama's snoozy debate opener and Mitt Romney's weird flub or two, one of them will be hard at work trying to make good on his agenda. This will include pressing any opportunity to reshape the Supreme Court, which hovers over all other issues.

The winner's policies are almost certain to find you where you live, no matter how far you are from Washington in your mind or your place. The taxman cometh. So does the Social Security check for retirees _ and the shakier-by-the-decade promise of those checks for everyone else.

Obama's mandate for almost everyone to have health insurance _ along with all the coverage protections that flow from that _ constitutes the largest reshaping of social policy in generations, with the effects to be felt ever more as the law takes firmer hold in the next few years. If Romney wins and gets enough like-minded people in Congress, he would reset that and try something else.

Though farther from home, the outsourcing of production overseas goes to the heart of American communities large and small as factory jobs vanish, or in some cases come back. Seemingly esoteric subjects like the value of China's currency and the fine print of trade deals affect what you pay for goods and perhaps whether you or the neighbors have work. Less obviously, the debt crisis on a faraway continent affects credit in the U.S. What happens in Greece, Spain and beyond may put your home loan out of reach if the turmoil gets out of hand.

Romney and Obama have sharp differences on these subjects and more, though they don't always make them easy to see. Much of the final leg of the campaign is about reaching for the middle ground. So nothing too radical, please.

For Romney, that means suddenly talking about his interest in seeing Pell grants rise for low-income college students, not about the major changes in government programs that would be required for him even to get close to his deficit-cutting goals.

For Obama, it means preaching fiscal discipline and an aggressive stance on energy production, not focusing on the tax increases for higher-end insurance policies in his health care law or the mercury pollution controls that could shut dozens of coal-fired power plants across the country. Although Obama failed to persuade a Democratic Congress to pass limits he promised on carbon emissions and he shelved a plan to toughen health standards on lung-damaging smog, a second term could give a second wind to steps like these.

Both candidates talk about cutting unnecessary regulation, but Romney's view of what's unnecessary is far more expansive than the Democrat's. That's part of a larger, fundamental and familiar divide between the two parties on the proper responsibilities of government.

Voters, like candidates, can't predict what economic calamity will come out of the blue. But it's clear both from records and rhetoric that Obama believes in the power of government and the Treasury to stimulate growth, add jobs and even save industries in ways that Romney doesn't. On Nov. 6, voters choose governing principles as much as a list of positions.

That holds true on foreign policy, too. At the moment, Romney comes across as more aggressive against Iran and on the conflict in Syria. On Afghanistan, he now supports the president's plan to end U.S. combat in 2014 and appears to have dropped his qualification that a withdrawal will depend on conditions on the ground at the time. Apparently modest differences may come to nothing after the campaign, or they could prove substantive _ determining whether the U.S. truly extricates itself from one war and how willing it will be to fight another.

The choice in the election doesn't just matter on the issues the candidates want to talk about. It can matter just as much on the issues they avoid. This is where the Supreme Court comes in.

With four justices in their 70s, there's a strong chance the next president will have a chance to fill at least one seat on a court closely divided between conservatives and liberals. One new face on the bench could mean a major change in civil liberties, gay relationships, gun control, health care, the approach to terrorism, perhaps access to abortion, and more, for years to come.

All told, a lot of tipping points on Election Day. That's democracy for you.


(Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
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Comments (20)


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  • calapete wrote...
    I thought RMoney wanted smaller, more efficient Government?
    September 10, 2012 12:41 pm
    somebody should tell Mitt that the Military is the Government.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    Dear Constitutionally challenged,
    September 13, 2012 1:58 am
    Our military is required by the Constitution. Pick your favorite social services departments and see if they are. The current expanding belt-line of Government provides an example of a self-licking ice cream cone that we can't afford.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • HPD 5-0 wrote...
    You will be voting for the literal life of our country AND our LIBERTY.
    September 10, 2012 6:11 pm
    Release us from the tyranny of the fat, lying pig liberals and return us to financial sensibility.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CldWtrSrf wrote...
    HPD 5-0....As far as Liberty go
    September 17, 2012 10:01 am
    Barry Obama/Bidden and Mittens Romney/Ryan are EXACTLY the same. They all are TYRANTS, they ALL support NDAA and all the other Fascist Totalitarian "Laws". If you want somebody that will return freedoms to America and let us live our lives how we want, vote Gary Johnson. But sycophants will be sycophants and will vote for somebody because there is a R or D next to their name, not looking into somebody and seeing that they are all the same.
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  • CH wrote...
    You will be voting for the literal life of our country AND our LIBERTY . . . .
    September 11, 2012 9:11 am
    Did not work so well with thwe last Clown. Return us to financial sensibility - Nice joke 0-0.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    Obama is currently on a parallel track with Carter in many ways.
    September 13, 2012 2:08 am
    But give him credit for not losing an embassy until months later. Bad news is, we eventually got the people back.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    Left wing Parrots
    September 13, 2012 5:17 am
    go back and look at what your Dear Leader promised to do during his LIEcampaign. And see how he has done exactly the opposite.

    Your Dear Leader PROMISED several times that if we passed his Jobs Stimulus Package that unemployment would never reach 8 percent or go any higher. Well Parrots what is it now? Promise after promise and how many stimulus's later what is the unemployment rate?

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • hnuh wrote...
    09-20-2012 From words to deeds:...
    September 20, 2012 5:57 am
    This election is a choice between the certainty of the 0bama agenda and the possibility we can rescue our country from that agenda. I will not soon forget the phrase "a self licking ice cream cone" thank you for that, it's an apt description of the entitlement society and a great, but slightly disgusting visual.
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  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    Actualy a vote for Romney is a vote for a President. Something that has been missing since January 21, 2009.
    September 20, 2012 6:09 am
    A vote for re immaculating the Dear Leader is a vote for four more years of the last 4 years only worse. MUCH WORSE!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CH wrote...
    Actualy a vote for Romney is a vote for a Circus Clown. Something that has been missing since January 21, 2009 . . . .
    September 23, 2012 8:56 am
    How did that work for the Country?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    New "Hope & Change" milestone!!!!
    September 23, 2012 11:33 am
    Americans are now more likely to die from suicide than in a car crash! (better put two rounds in the gun CH just in case you miss on the first try)
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • CH wrote...
    Americans are now more likely to die from suicide than in a car crash! . . . .
    September 23, 2012 2:53 pm
    Democrats have something to live for - Teapublicans don't. You won't be missed Rangerhawk! Try to hang on till 11/7/12 we want to see your comments be for you check out.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
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