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Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission says an earthquake like the one that caused the Japan tsunami is not only possible on the west coast, it's inevitable. (AP Photo/File)

Study says a devastating earthquake in the Northwest is inevitable

BY Alyssa Kleven  on March 18, 2013 @ 12:09 pm (Updated: 1:48 pm - 3/18/13 )

A new study presents a grim outlook for the Pacific Northwest when the big one hits.

The study from the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission was presented to the Oregon legislature last Thursday. The commission said when an inevitable high magnitude earthquake hits, 10,000 people will die.

Commission member Jay Wilson told Seattle's Morning News that while that sounds bad, it's also the worst case scenario. And there is a lot we can do to prepare.

"Certainly the potential of this earthquake and tsunami is quite real," said Wilson. "[The report] is really trying to raise the bar to understand not just how you characterize the damage with buildings and bridges being broken, but what those impacts would be from losing that."

Sure, a 9-plus magnitude earthquake could destroy buildings and bridges, and those would need to be replaced, surely costing billions of dollars. But what would really cripple the cities and towns in outlying areas is the services impacted by those broken buildings and roads.

Without the services we would wait for electricity or running water.

Wilson said their report tries to look at a long term strategy for handling a detrimental seismic event. Looking 50 years out, Wilson recommended an improvement to infrastructure as we build it now.

"Those incremental investments really aren't that big - but the pay off is that we don't lose these services and capacity after the earthquake happens."

After the Japan earthquake and tsunami, Wilson traveled to survey the damage. He arrived in Tokyo just three months after the massive earthquake, but he wouldn't have known it just stepping off the plane.

Within two to four weeks, they had most of their services up and operating again, he said. But when Wilson traveled to the areas hit by the tsunami, things were far more dire.

That's what one of the commission's concerns is, getting services fully operational to those tsunami zones as well. That's part of the reason why they're looking at a 50 year time frame to incrementally improve.

Meanwhile, Wilson encouraged families, within their households or at work, to at least improve their sense of readiness with emergency kits and plans.

"As communities and cities, one thing we can start doing, even if we can't afford the investments, is we can start planning on how we're going to recover for this inevitable situation."

More seismic activity near you:
Check the earthquake tracker
Study makes chilling forecast about quake, tsunami

Alyssa Kleven, MyNorthwest.com Editor
Alyssa Kleven is an editor and content producer at MyNorthwest.com. She enjoys doting over her adorable dachshund Winnie - named for Arcade Fire front-man Win Butler.
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Comments (7)


  • Add A Comment

  • ron prevost wrote...
    See - I told you not to waste money replacing the viaduct.
    March 18, 2013 1:34 pm
    I was just down in the Puyallup Valley today and noticed again the evacuation routes to the uplands. And with plenty of detectors on Rainier, we should have a decent warning for any lahar dangers - the most likely danger in the near future.

    But, so far as 'the Big One', a major Cascadia slippage 9 to 9.5 earthquake (ala Japan, 2011), no matter what we do can never be enough. Can't expect it either. But I do keep a week's supply of food, water (and dog food) on hand. Just in cast I'm home when it hits.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Chuck Gould wrote...
    Coastal towns likely at greater tsunami risk than cities on Puget Sound
    March 18, 2013 1:36 pm
    Low lying cities on the main coastline would get the full brunt of a tsunami type wave. Not a pretty thought.

    Our major population centers and most infrastructure is farther inland. By the time a tsunami pinballs down the Strait of Juan de Fuca, bounces off Whidbey Island, and then heads north and south though a variety or straits and inlets it might still be capable of a lot of damage, but a bunch of the energy would be spent.

    Just about the time we think we're the masters of our own fates, up jumps an earthquake, a tsunami, or a hurricane to remind us we absolutely are not in total control. Every day is a gift. :-)

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  • HPD 5-0 wrote...
    Please take out Seattle...PLEEEEEZ!!
    March 18, 2013 4:10 pm
    ...
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rikki Doxx wrote...
    Tsunami?
    March 18, 2013 4:20 pm
    Seattle is pretty well protected from one. If Ranier blows, well so much for Seattle. But as waves go, the coast would be hardest hit. Seattle is protected pretty much by Puget Sound.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Fuego wrote...
    How long before....
    March 18, 2013 4:41 pm
    Olympia sets up a special department to study the adverse affects to our infrastucture from such catastrophe? I'm guessing that we'll need to spend 200 million to get a proper study done.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • HPD 5-0 wrote...
    Fuego
    March 19, 2013 5:14 am
    You forgot the thousands of union members that MUST be hired....
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    No worries. Hope is on the way
    March 18, 2013 6:28 pm
    The survivors will all be able to take advantage of free healthcare afterwards and everything shall be rebuilt (not by "you" of course) with carbon-tax windfall profits.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
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