Weekdays at 12noon on 770 AM: The Truth
 Michael Medved

Will Evangelicals Really Sit Out the Election?

October 9, 2012 @ 11:21 am (Updated: 8:56 am - 10/10/12 )

Recent polls produced confusing results in the presidential contest - with Barack Obama ahead over-all, but Mitt Romney leading comfortably among independents.

How could this be?-as independents are the key swing votes that settle closely divided elections? Actually, many polls over-sample Democrats-predicting they'll turn out in record numbers, exceeding even the tidal wave for the hope-and-change campaign of 2008. Moreover, they also project conservative-leaning groups staying home: analysis of the Marist Poll in key swing states projected 20 to 30 percent lower white Evangelical participation than last time.

This flows from liberal assumptions that religious conservatives are disengaged from this election, and uncomfortable with Romney's Mormon faith. This means that Evangelicals can shock the elites and tip the results by rallying at least as strongly for Romney-Ryan as they did for George W. Bush-or John McCain.

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Comments (38)


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  • sportsguru wrote...
    Medved
    October 9, 2012 11:15 am
    People are tired of the Political BS as well as your BS. Politicians faux love for the American people and religions as well as your faux love for your useful idiots that follow you and there religious beliefs,lol. They are finally understanding that you only do this for financial reason and nothing else.
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  • maplefish wrote...
    Guru
    October 9, 2012 12:41 pm
    and you have a problem with a man having a job? Thats' Medved gig? Usually you have something clever or funny to say. I like you dude, but the cool thing about America is that if you don't like something, nobody is forcing you to listen to the radio or read the blog. Not sure why you have such a grudge against Medved? Seems like you'd be tolerant of his point of view being the Free Thinking Liberal fella you claim to be on these boards...
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  • sportsguru wrote...
    maplefish
    October 9, 2012 1:38 pm

    I hate arguing with people that I like and you are one of them. This is a comment blog and I have a right to post my opinion even if it is not the opinion of those that follow him. My point is that I believe that Medved don't even believe the stuff that he post most of the time and most of his post are basically pure entertainment and designed to rile up the parties and get clicks for his advertisers.

    Bottom line is that other then the extreme right and/or left, the gig is up because people not only have a low opinion of our government system, they also have a low opinion that deliver information which is his job.

    Because most of the time, it is not based on facts.

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  • maplefish wrote...
    OK
    October 10, 2012 8:29 am
    Fair enough. Point taken!
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  • dewisant wrote...
    Polls
    October 9, 2012 11:24 am
    I would not for a minute believe a poll from the rah-rah press that says Obama is ahead. I don't think "the press" has been doing it's job since at least Tet in 1968.
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  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    sportsguru
    October 9, 2012 11:24 am
    Exactly what does your Dear Leader Obama manipulate the polls for? Re Immaculation!
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  • messiah101 wrote...
    oversampling
    October 9, 2012 11:49 am
    The pollsters ask the person being polled if they are a DEM or GOP or Independant if more Dems exists then more Dems are likely to be interviewed.IF 50 Dems and 50 GOPers were contacted the polls would ALL be 50/50
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  • Rick (4) wrote...
    @messiah101
    October 9, 2012 12:28 pm
    Your statement is untrue. The polls ask people the questions and then calculate the results based off of 2008 Presidental electon turnout. Since in 2008, there was an abnormally high turnout of democrat voters, they fudge the numbers to represent that same turnout in 2012.
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  • FormerMarineSgt wrote...
    @rick, @messiah....
    October 9, 2012 4:44 pm
    Yeah - because the numbers were positive for Obama, they had to be fudged. It's the only possible answer that the right wing can accept. It's not thier fault, they just seem to be incapable of accepting that anything can go Obama's way. Just like with the unemployment numbers and the claims of conspiracy to create Obama friendly numbers - all based on nothing more than 'if the numbers are good for Obama, they can't be right....
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  • sambra27 wrote...
    Not a result of the POTUS
    October 9, 2012 12:02 pm
    Obama doesn't manipulate the polls. I get what your central point is, but not everything can be pointed directly at the President, which you always seem so fond of doing.
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  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    Even if the sampling were equal
    October 9, 2012 11:51 am
    more Americans would chose Romney. Just like we will in November!
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  • ron prevost wrote...
    I've never been that much of a fan of assumption bloc voting but.........
    October 9, 2012 11:52 am
    a goodly portion of any group - voters or bowlers or whatever - will think or believe almost anything. .......... At least once a week I hear some reference to 'Christians and Catholics', so I don't doubt an awfully lot of Evangelicals don't consider LDS Christian.

    As I noted a couple of days ago, it seems this year we have voters looking not so much why to support a candidate, but looking for a good excuse NOT TO. And had it been Mitt Romney who was detached and looking at the floor last debate, I've no doubt Evangelicals would have had their reason to stay home and not vote. ........... Just as a lot of Obama's disappointed base have their reasons now.

    But anyone who distrusts another is still looking for their reasons. If Mitt wants the evangelical vote, he can never take it for granted. ... No pandering needed. Nor any sharp move to the social right. Just solid in his strengths. and letting there people know that he Can be trusted at least not to violate their core values.

    And let others remind them of the alternative.

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  • BigBlackGuy wrote...
    How Convenient!
    October 9, 2012 12:34 pm
    When President Obama was running for office, the Evangelical, racist, right wing wackos, large corporations, and everyone who hated the sight of the man. Stood by the furious Reverend Wright hoping he would derail the President. Now since a white guy is running for office Evangelicals will "sit out." No matter what Romney's religious beliefs are, and they couldn't care less. How sickening. I hope Satan is building a bigger hell because it's going to be a lot of hateful hypocritical people joining him. http://christiandefense.org/mor_black.htm
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  • Cbrew wrote...
    So, Romney is going to get destroyed in the Foreign policy debate
    October 9, 2012 1:21 pm
    You crazy conservatives know that right? Obama has overwhelming support around the world, he has higher support in Britain France and Germany than he does here. His approval rating is in the 80-90's... That's a heck of a turn around from when Every ally we had hated the last GOP President. Obama has navigated foreign policy very well.. He's avoided getting militarily involved in these Arab Spring conflicts, he's harmed Iran's attempts to build a nuke without dropping bombs in a volatile area of the world and Americans are happy about this... Romney advocates being the policemen of the world, he said so in his recent address... Nobody is going to want to vote for a guy that's asking for wars in the middle East... Expect that debate bump to swing back the other way after this one... even after his debate "victory" he didn't gain the advantage and still sits well behind in the Electoral college. He'll be sunk after this.
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  • maplefish wrote...
    Obama is a LAUGHING STOCK
    October 10, 2012 8:32 am
    the president’s greatest failure has been not to think through the implications of these challenges to American power. Far from developing a coherent strategy, he believed—perhaps encouraged by the premature award of the Nobel Peace Prize—that all he needed to do was to make touchy-feely speeches around the world explaining to foreigners that he was not George W. Bush. He is viewed as weak...it that view is correct!
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  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    I'm technically "sitting out" the election
    October 9, 2012 1:48 pm
    Because my ballot will be coming to my house where I will sit down and cast a vote "not" to continue with the current direction things are going. Would that vote count more if I had a bumper sticker, yard sign, or went to a rally?
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  • SeattleD wrote...
    "polls over-sample Democrats"
    October 9, 2012 6:15 pm
    Republitards are insisting all political polls question an exact equal amount of Republicons as Democrats because

    one: Republitards are too stupid to understand the concept of random sampling, and

    two, Republitards are too stupid to realized if they got what they wanted every poll would have a 50/50 result.

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  • TwoTrees wrote...
    Rangerhawk wrote: "Would that vote count more if I had a bumper sticker, yard sign, or went to a rally?"
    October 9, 2012 6:31 pm
    Well, technically not (of course). However, a bumper sticker or sign just might enable someone who's been on the fence to feel as if they're not alone in choosing a candidate who is so unpopular in the main stream media. Or, they may be able to absolve themselves a touch easier for feeling racist as a result of not choosing Obama. In other words, your enthusiasm for Romney (manufactured or not) may just be the catalyst for someone else to give him serious and thoughtful consideration.
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