Updated Nov 29, 2012 - 1:17 pm

Should the Mariners make a splash?

By Shannon Drayer

I planned on writing about some "what if" scenarios for the Mariners today and then came across Dave Cameron's piece on U.S.S. Mariner which summed up just about everything I wished most folks already knew when they asked me about the latest Mariners rumors. The post is a great explanation of just where a lot of the rumors we hear this time of year in particular come from. If you are a fan of hot stove baseball he points to certain things you should keep in mind when hearing about certain players being tied to certain teams. Good stuff. If you have a few minutes please give it a read.

As for the "what ifs", I wanted to get your thoughts on some things. The Mariners have money to spend this year but it is a rather thin free-agent market. It doesn't appear that there will be any buyer-friendly deals for the M's with any of the top 10 names. The Mariners will most likely will have to overspend to get one of those players and honestly, that's okay. Top free agents in any given year get top dollars. Some years the top free agents are better than the top free agents in other years but regardless, those at the top in any given year are going to get top dollar.

David Wright could be an option for the M's if the Mets don't retain him. (AP)

We are hoping that Jack Zduriencik will be able to make a good trade or two in the next couple of months but obviously, that is not completely in his control. A little bit more, but still not completely in his control, is who he spends his money on. The player has to be willing to come to Seattle and sometimes that may take a little extra. Who do you reach for if you are the Mariners and you have to spend that money?

Mike Napoli may or may not have a team willing to go three years with him. If he does, do you go four or even five? If that is the best bat available to you that you know you can bring to Seattle, how far do you go for him?

According to various reports, the Red Sox have had ongoing negotiations with Nick Swisher. That could be a tough bidding war to find yourself in. Do you do something bold to try to avoid that?

No one knows what the market for Josh Hamilton is. Someone could make a huge splash at the winter meetings next week or his market could be even slower to develop. What is your limit for Hamilton and do you re-think that if it appears you may not be able to get anything else big done?

One last scenario: what if the Mets cannot get a deal done with David Wright and decide to trade him? What if you could pull off a Cliff Lee-like deal for him? Lee was relatively cheap at $8 million the year he pitched for the Mariners and none of the players Zduriencik gave up have come back to haunt them. Wright is scheduled to earn $16 million this year. Would you take him at that salary for one year if you still had the money shortly after the winter meetings?

Do you not spend that money and gamble that you can get a deal done that will bring in established players? You can only do that if you still have money left to spend.

At some point the Mariners will have to do something bold to bring the bat they want via free agency to Seattle. Give it some thought. Are you comfortable doing that with a player that is currently available this year? Are you willing to roll the dice that a big name will actually be available in trade?

Is there someone on the market that you would be willing to make a splash for? How far would you go?

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Gig Harbor fan wrote...

should we make a splash!!???

November 28, 2012 6:29 pm

Should we make a splash? Let's see...hmmmmm, the Mariners have lost more attendance in the past ten years than anyone in pro sports......hmmmmmm. 10 years ago they were tops in MLB...Tops, not the Yankees, not the Dodgers....Seattle! Fix the team or become a high school team....20 fans a game.

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Zduriencik in '09a wrote...

Well said

December 2, 2012 4:38 pm

But Shannon is part of the crew that says it's probably bad to take a risk cause you might end up with another Chone Figgins. So let's keep cutting payroll and continue losing year after year after year after year after year...

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Stevil wrote...

For the right guy, yes.

November 28, 2012 6:52 pm

A splash doesn't have to be a tidal wave of ridiculous overspending, though. That goes for trades as well.

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bigguitarman wrote...

Absolutely

November 28, 2012 7:06 pm

The M's at the very least should be in line for a big TV deal soon, and payroll is very low now. It's time to show M's fans that they are serious about putting a winner on the field and sign the best bat available. He may be risky, but there is no question who the best hitter available this year is. Sign Hamilton and Lohse, or Hamilton and Napoli. M's fans have been patient long enough!

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bigmoccs wrote...

Trade now........FA next couple of years!

November 28, 2012 7:32 pm

As a fan I want to win now! Being realistic I can wait a year or two, more?!?! I don't like the sound of that having waited this long for the Mariners. But to have a winner for a long period of time sounds a lot better than what we were left with after the early 2000! We have pitching we can part with, veteran and prospects pitchers! We can add a bat like Ellsbury or Stanton from Miami for one of our big three and another prospect in the outfield. We could also add someone like Billy Butler/trade or Napoli thru FA for the infield/DH. We can continue to add via FA in the next couple of years when more money comes available thru the TV deal!

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benjamin6 wrote...

Of course we should but....

November 28, 2012 7:33 pm

The M's front office won't get anything done, just like last season, and the season before that, and the season before that. Yes I know they went after Chone Figgins and he totally busted, however they failed to acquire any big name talent though free agency since then. I love Z and McNamara, they are great talent evaluators, but until Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln are gone, this team will never win. I won't be attending a single Mariners game until they are gone. I CAN'T WAIT FOR NEW OWNERSHIP!!!

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*logos* wrote...

here here

November 28, 2012 8:15 pm

can't wait until the team is sold to local ownership.

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shannon drayer wrote...

Let's do a little better here.

November 28, 2012 9:46 pm

Appreciate the comments but most of you are not answering the question. Who do you make the splash for. Who, that is available, do you go above and beyond for? Gig Harbor, too easy. Yes, they should do something but what? Stevil, what would be ridiculous? Bigguitarman, I assume you mean whatever it takes for the combos you mentioned? Bigmoccs,Stanton is not available and Butler most likey is not either. Elsbury has just 1 year remaining on his contract. If you hold out hoping to make a deal for these players you very well could end up empty handed.

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ThirteenOfTwo wrote...

My own free agent suggestions:

November 28, 2012 10:22 pm

I'd back up the truck for Swisher. Most of the rumors I've been seeing have him pegged at 4/56 or so, which would be an absolute heist. Dave's offseason plan said he was willing to go 7/100; I'm not THAT enthused but I would be entirely happy to give him the same contract B.J. Upton just landed (5/75) or even something like 6/90 if necessary. I don't think the Red Sox are willing to go that high. I like Hamilton, too, at or below 6/130. But I understand Z's hesitation to go all in for him given that he'll likely wait until the end of the winter to sign and if the team misses out on him they get nothing. My fallback option to those two would be Ludwick, I guess, though he's old. Ross' home/road splits and left/right splits scare me and Hairston just seems like a lamer version of Casper Wells. Napoli would be cool on a one-year deal but with Montero, Jaso, and Zunino already around he doesn't seem to fit into the big picture. Another option that I haven't seen discussed a lot that I would actively pursue is starting pitching. I know popular perception is that the Mariners are all-pitch no-hit and don't need more pitching, but to me that's pretty obviously skewed by the park. We can upgrade over Beavan, right? Almost any FA starter is an upgrade over Beavan. The team needs both a pitcher and a hitter so there's probably no $$ for Greinke or Sanchez but I'd be thrilled to get Edwin Jackson (~4/40?), Brandon McCarthy (~2/14 w/incentives?), Dan Haren (~2/20 w/incentives?) or Ryan Dempster (~3/30?).

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shannon drayer wrote...

Thanks thirteen

November 28, 2012 10:44 pm

Exactly what I was looking for. Will be interesting to see what Swisher gets in light of the Upton signing. 6 years is pushing it for Hamilton but maybe you have to look at that. Zduriencik did tell Greg Johns on mariners.com that adding to the rotation is an option.

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Zduriencik in '09a wrote...

The Rotation?

December 2, 2012 4:41 pm

Gee, after 4 years of the worst offense in the American League, the problem isn't the pitching. This team needs to score more runs. Get Swisher or Hamilton. It can be done. This team has made a ton in profits and needs to put more of that money into the player payroll. A new scoreboard without a better offense is a joke.

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ThirteenOfTwo wrote...

My own trade suggestions:

November 28, 2012 10:43 pm

Unfortunately it seems like the trade market is pretty thin at the moment as most teams aren't exactly eager to deal young stud outfielders, and if I'm going to give up the farm for a guy I want him to be young. But here are a couple of ideas. 1) Josh Reddick could probably be had from Oakland, since they're constantly flipping established players and their outfield is a position of strength. He's going to regress a bit in the power department but I still think he's a very good player. They need catching and infield help... I might give up a package starting with Montero and including some of our minor league infield prospects (NOT Seager/Ackley) if it could bring back Reddick. 2) I'd love to get either Alex Gordon or Wil Myers from the Royals and would give up a lot (Erasmo plus Hultzen plus Romero, Walker plus Miller, other equivalently valuable packages) to make it happen. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like a great fit because the Rays also want those players and have better pitching to deal (Moore, Hellickson) than us. 3) There aren't really very many other high-level outfielders you could trade for. I think the best bet after that is finding a left-handed platoon partner for Wells. That's not as flashy as getting a guy like Myers, but it could be just as effective for a lot cheaper. Some options include Michael Brantley, Logan Morrison, and Mike Baxter. My favorite platoon candidate of them all is the Pirates' Garrett Jones, who is playing the wrong position (his OF defense is better than his 1B defense) and isn't being platooned strictly enough. The way they're misusing him makes me think the Pirates might undervalue him and be willing to deal for something like Carp + Vargas + cash. A Jones/Wells platoon would combine to hit and field like Nick Swisher for about $5M in total cost. Now that's a deal.

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Stevil wrote...

@Shannon

November 29, 2012 5:17 am

Ridiculous would be signing Hamilton to anything close to the 7/175 feeler he put out there. Any deal more than four years and guaranteeing him over a hundred million would be ridiculous. Mike Napoli would be ridiculous for anything more than two years, averaging over eight million a year. Trading a couple of top pitching prospects and a promising middle infielder for Justin Upton, would be ridiculous. So who would I make a splash for? I'd make a serious play for Nick Swisher. Four, even five years if necessary, in the ballpark of 55-65 million. I would try to pry Wil Myers away from KC for a package that might include one star pitching prospect, a middle-infielder, and maybe a reliever. That's just a sample. What do you think?

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bigguitarman wrote...

Just Want A Winner

November 28, 2012 11:06 pm

Hey, I know it's easy to spend other people's money and all- but pretty much yes. Be the last bidder on Hamilton. If that is the only Free Agent move that can be made, I believe it is the one that MUST be made. You could add another big bat through trade, maybe, though I hate the idea of losing the Big Three. Lohse or Napoli may sound like a stretch as well but I do think both Hamilton and one of them could be had for less than $35-50 million a year. Not that I know anything, mind you. I am just sick to death of losing.

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Misterwes31 wrote...

I tHink so..

November 29, 2012 12:02 am

As far as I know 2014 free agents market isn't going to be huge either. The team has struggled, of course, but I believe their young talent is now ready for a heavy hitter in it. 2 years ago, they looked like they were 5 pieces away.. Now they seem like they could build on this with a couple more pieces. Napoli or Martin doesn't make sense to me. Swisher would be a good one to spend on. (Any of those guys will get multi year, corner outfielder makes more sense to me.) plus a switch hitter is always good and he plays first base as well. Trades are probably better ways to go. Justin upton of course, but I'd want to know what Jack Z thinks of him.. Marlins seem pretty sure Stanton isn't going anywhere.. The royals have a couple of guys, too. The interesting thing here is many names we hear hit in hitters parks and come off down years... It'll be interesting to see which way we go. Now simply as a non-thinking fan, I want 2 bats this winter. I better get it. The payroll is going up and as far as I'm concerned, we have resources to spend for trades.

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Your Vibe wrote...

big splash

November 29, 2012 12:08 am

I've read so many trade scenarios involving 2 or more of a top 5 farm systems top 5 prospects. Most of them involve players coming back who are young but proven and making around $10 million a year. I think the reasons to wait a year to go get what you need should apply to trades far more than FA signings. These guys people are talking about trading multiple of are mostly within a year or two away. We need a backup catcher, 1 or 2 outfielders and a starter. A backup catcher or starter are not going to be a veteran middle of the order bat, which is the biggest need this team has. Why give up more players that could be on that contending team when FA could fill those needs instead. I'm not saying to get the top free agent at each spot, but there's only 1 player that fills multiple needs in my view. I think they should go as hard as they can after Hamilton very soon. If Hamilton drags his heels waiting for other teams, start getting more serious with Swisher. The need for a corner outfield bat that can hold down the #4 spot in the lineup is huge and I do think the money is a better way to get it right now than trading a possible future ace and all star ss+ more to get it. I know there's no guarantee that any on the farm even make it, but why give up those chances when the money is available to approximate the quality of player coming in without losing those players. Hamilton without the substance abuse and possibly related injury history, would be looking for $200+ million. He's being discounted by the entire league due to those things and could become a bargain.

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ThirteenOfTwo wrote...

2014 FA Class

November 29, 2012 12:37 am

For those wondering, by the way, the 2014 class looks pretty good as of now. Obviously guys are going to start getting locked up pretty soon but right now it's got: Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, Omar Infante, Chase Utley, Martin Prado, David Wright, David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Corey Hart, Hunter Pence, R.A. Dickey, Gavin Floyd, Matt Garza, Roy Halladay, Jason Hammel, Tim Hudson, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Colby Lewis, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and James Shields. The corner OF and SP markets are considerably better than this years'. I prefer Swisher to any of those OFs but if they miss out they could trade for Choo, wait a year, and then sign Corey Hart (or re-up with Choo). There's a case to be made that instead of pursing a starter this year the Mariners should sign a one-year stopgap like Erik Bedard and then wait for next year's loaded starting pitching market to go for one of Shields, Lincecum, Floyd, Garza, Lewis or Lester.

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Should the Mariners make a splash?

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