I will not wallow in this gloom and doom talk. I always look for something to be optimistic about, and there it was this morning on CNBC.
“Our next guest thinks that you can make 20 percent on the American stock market this year,” announced the cable news network host.
Now THAT’s a hell of a tease. How can you not pay attention? The prediction comes from Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, who is considered consistently bullish.
“I’m thinking 15 to 20 percent returns and I think it’s mainly about confidence.
His argument is that people like you and me who believe in saving for the future, are beginning to realize that putting your money in a bank where you interest rate is what – one percent? – is about as profitable as watching dust collect. And it’s not going to change.
The stock market may jump around, but you don’t have to be an investment genius to get five percent, maybe even six or seven percent. When people begin to accept that as the new normal maybe it’ll snowball.
“I think in couple weeks we’re going to have some progress made on fiscal issues,” continued Paulsen. “Bank lending is going up – and that’s the type of thing that gives you the sense of a sustainable recovery going forward.”
Of course you might ask, why believe this guy, he IS one of those analysts who in 2008 predicted the recession wouldn’t be so bad. But stocks did recover from that, and it’s fun to dream.
The other thing I like is that 2013 is the first year in a long time with no end of the world predictions pending. Except for the fact that it ends in 13. But I choose to ignore that.