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Real Clear Politics poll this week has the president and Romney tied at 47.6 percent. (AP Photo/file)

Poll roundup: Presidential race opens up as election day nears

BY Tom Tangney  on November 1, 2012 @ 6:34 am (Updated: 1:11 pm - 11/1/12 )

We're now only five days away from election day. The campaigns are back in full swing after taking a short break to deal with the hurricane. The first question on everyone's mind is "Will Hurricane Sandy have any effect on the presidential polls?" The answer is yes, but not in the way you might have thought.

The real impact is that there have been fewer polls! Both Gallup and Rasmussen suspended their national polls for a few days to let us get over Hurricane Sandy a bit.

But still, Real Clear Politics, which takes an average of all the major polls, continues to churn out results. They show Romney and Obama tied at 47.6 percent each.

My reading of those results is: The closer Election Day gets, the more open the presidential race seems.

In the all-important Electoral College, Real Clear Politics a month ago had only seven toss-up states - a mere 82 undecided electoral votes.

Now, only five days out, Real Clear Politics has 11 toss-up states and a whopping 146 electoral votes up for grabs.

Most of those new toss-up states have come from the president's side, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but Real Clear Politics has also just moved North Carolina out of the "for sure" Romney column - so both sides are taking hits.

Clearly, the race is not only tightening, it's broadening.

The Obama campaign has been playing a lot of defense this week. It sent its number one surrogate Bill Clinton to Minnesota of all places.

Vice President Joe Biden is spending time in Pennsylvania. And the president is heading to Wisconsin Thursday.

Those are all states Obama had hoped to have nailed down by now.

Every day the president, Bill Clinton, and Joe Biden have to spend defending Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and Michigan and Minnesota is a day they're not spending in all-important Ohio.

So how goes Ohio? Ohio is still the big battle zone, and Obama's supposed firewall - with the president holding a small but persistent two point lead. But for the first time, one poll this week, Rasmussen, actually put Romney in the lead there - by two points. Is that a sign of things to come?

Could be? But just on Wednesday, a new Quinnipiac poll has the president up by five in Ohio. So maybe, just maybe, the Dems feel like they can risk shoring up places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. But if Ohio does steady for the president, Michigan is all of a sudden wobbly for him. A Detroit News poll has Obama's lead cut to under 3 percent. Michigan, the heart of auto bailout country, that's got to be a concern.

But the Romney campaign has to be concerned with the latest Quinnipiac poll out of Florida. That has Romney up by only one point. So when Romney resumed campaigning Thursday, after a one day hiatus for the storm, he of course was in Florida.

New Wall Street Journal/NBC battleground state polls out show the president up in Wisconsin by three, New Hampshire by two, Iowa by six, and Pennsylvania by four.

Pundit Joe Klein wrote this week - anyone who claims to know who the winner will be next Tuesday is just blowing smoke.

But just an hour ago, Time Magazine's John Halperin said that in the last two days, insiders from both campaigns are starting to think that Obama's tiny but persistent leads in so many of these battleground states means "the president may have this."

We'll know in five days, or six, or seven, or ten.

Tom Tangney, KIRO Radio Host
Tom Tangney is co-host of KIRO Radio's Seattle's Morning News and resident enthusiast of...everything. He loves books, movies, TV, art, pop culture, politic, sports, and Husky football.
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Comments (16)


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  • Republicans are losers wrote...
    Nate Silver says
    November 1, 2012 7:40 am
    Obama: 300

    Romney: 238

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Splinge wrote...
    You can believe what you want...
    November 1, 2012 1:09 pm
    But the reality is, When Romney wins, it will have to be by a large enough margin the libs can't cry about it, like Algore. That's the real thing to wonder about here.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • wsualumn wrote...
    Ann Coulter
    November 1, 2012 7:57 am
    Had the following to say this morning on Glenn Beck: "Look for a Romney victory. The only way Obama can win Ohio is by cheating. Watch MSNBC on Tuesday evening as their hosts will be crying over Obama's loss." What a hateful person Ann Coulter chooses to be. Gee, I wonder why she has never married? I think I will do the opposite of what she says regarding MSNBC. I will tune into Fox News and listen to them blame the mass media for protecting Obama and attacking Romney and all of the other excuses they can manufacture.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • ron prevost wrote...
    Wazzu - I'm not thrilled with Ann Colter (not Glenn Beck) either, BUT
    November 1, 2012 4:35 pm
    WHY do YOU think you need to make personal attacks?

    But, then, Obama seems to have dropped any pretense of talking issues, reverting only to character attacks. ... And THAT is hateful.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Roark wrote...
    Quinnipiac Poll is garbage
    November 1, 2012 8:49 am
    So is CBS and Detroit News. If you want to get a more accurate poll go with Rassmussen, which has Romney up or tied in almost every toss up state. Even given that lead, most polls are over-sampling democrats based on 2008 turnout. That's not what will happen this year. So dream on democrats. Articles like this that give you hope Obama will win will just make it worse for you on election day.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • wsualumn wrote...
    The Rasmussen Poll
    November 1, 2012 9:10 am
    Is embraced by Fox News. It is one of the few polls that has Romney either close or in the lead. Dream on conservatives.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • HLC wrote...
    WSUalum.
    November 1, 2012 9:10 am
    Why would anyone with a positive I.Q watch that crap? I guess that would leave you out and you probably have the time to waste on the taxpayers dime.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • wsualumn wrote...
    HLC
    November 1, 2012 11:20 am
    Excuse me. I have the time to waste it on the taxpayers dime? Care to explain that one to me? You obviously don't know what you are talking about. BIG SURPRISE!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Republicans are losers wrote...
    Las Vegas odds are on Obama
    November 1, 2012 9:39 am
    http://www.lvrj.com/business/william-hill-sets-obama-s-re-election-odds-at-2-5-romney-now-2-1-174667901.html
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    The poll from us American next tuesday
    November 1, 2012 10:03 am
    shows Romney as President and in a LANDSLIDE!

    Won't be any chances of Liberals getting this into courts and overturning the will of us Americans!

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    wsualumn when we Americans elect Romney this Tuesday,
    November 1, 2012 10:08 am
    all you Parrots will do is scream and squawk voter fraud and riot and do what the Dear Leader instructs all of you Parrots to do in the wake of the Dear Leaders crushing and humiliating defeat!.

    Yes their is voter fraud. It is on the left wing in this nation. Obama knows he will lose. You Parrots should prepare yourself for the same.

    Don't worry Parrots you will have 4 years to groom your next Dear Leader and regime!

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • wsualumn wrote...
    It's Me
    November 1, 2012 11:23 am
    The last voter fraud that I saw occur was in Florida and it was done by The GOP. Throwing out democratic ballots.I can't wait for Tuesday. Care to put your money where your mouth is?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Republicans are losers wrote...
    And you won't...
    November 1, 2012 11:21 am
    when he loses?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • awbitf wrote...
    I'm convinced these polls are manufactured
    November 1, 2012 11:32 am
    to make it look like a tight race. When the race is perceived as close, then more people will probably pay attention to election coverage making election coverage more valuable, thus allowing the TV/radio networks to charge more for the advertisements they show. No one wants to see a blow out, it's just not as exciting (or as profitable). Considering the millions of dollars these TV networks have invested in covering the election, of course they want to make money off of it and that's why the commission so many polls. And if you can make everyone think its close... MONEY!

    Also, think about who sits around, answers unsolicited phone calls and responds to these polls. Is that really an accurate thermometer of the nation?

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • sportsguru wrote...
    awbitf
    November 1, 2012 12:21 pm
    ding,ding,ding and we have a winner. Finally, somebody that have some common since. Thank you for giving me hope in people.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }