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This time out, Silver is staying in the state of Kentucky for his pick, but it's Louisville who he says has the best chance. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Two in a row? Nate Silver makes his NCAA tournament predictions

BY Tom Tangney  on March 21, 2013 @ 9:12 am (Updated: 9:23 am - 3/21/13 )

Every Democrat's favorite statistician, the New York Times' Nate Silver, is wading into the world of sports again, this time for March Madness.

Sure, Nate Silver nailed the most recent Presidential election, getting all 50 states correct ... and dozens of congressional races too.

But what about the statistical nightmare that is the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where upsets are the rule?

Well, did you know Silver correctly predicted last year's winner? That's right, he picked Kentucky to win it all and they did. He got March Madness right!

Then again, Silver freely admits that they were already one of the favorites and that result was as much a matter of luck as skill. Even his own forecast at the time said Kentucky only had a 27 percent chance to take it all. So even then, Kentucky bucked the odds, only a one in four chance to win.

This time out, Silver is staying in the state of Kentucky for his pick, but it's Louisville who he says has the best chance - but again, they've only been given a 23 percent chance of winning. It's just better than any other single team's chances.

What does he think of Gonzaga's chances? Well, the good news is he thinks it has the best chance among the 16 teams in the West Regional to make it to the Final Four.

But overall, he only gives the Bulldog's a 6 percent chance to win it all.

Oh, what does HE know?

Tom Tangney, KIRO Radio Host
Tom Tangney is co-host of KIRO Radio's Seattle's Morning News and resident enthusiast of...everything. He loves books, movies, TV, art, pop culture, politic, sports, and Husky football.
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Comments (2)


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  • ron prevost wrote...
    Forget Silver - games aren't won on the bsis of popularity
    March 21, 2013 12:03 pm
    BUT --- Jesuit Pope / Jesuit school. .....

    The fix is on - Gonzaga wins it all.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • soo purletiv wrote...
    Looks like
    March 24, 2013 2:36 pm
    both you dorks were wrong!

    Gonzaga got bounced early.

    And, as I recall this Silver Bozo wrongly predicted the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl.

    And to repeat what I rightly posted then: "... this numbers guy is just voodoo. It has no bearing in reality, and has nothing to do with the outcome of the game on Sunday. A lot of people have formulas for politics, sports and other "entities" that have certain success, until they fail.

    The only numbers that count, are the final numbers on the scoreboard..."

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }