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Obama vs. Romney: Latest poll results

September 18, 2012 @ 6:35 am (Updated: 9:01 am - 9/18/12 )

cedargrove
Seven weeks from today we will be electing a president, and the national polls have tightened a bit. (AP Photo)

Seven weeks from today we will be electing a president, and the national polls have tightened a bit, with Barack Obama's post-Convention bounce of 5 to 7 percentage points shrinking this past week to about a 3 per cent lead over Romney.

As for the 10 key battle ground states, one, Michigan, has moved into the "leans Obama" category this week.

Real Clear Politics, which averages all the latest polls, has the probable electoral breakdown at the moment as this (and remember you need 270 electoral college votes to win):

Obama: 237
Romney: 191

That leaves nine battleground states with 110 electoral votes still considered a toss-up.

Perhaps most significantly, Obama maintains slim leads in the key toss-up states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

Most all of these polls do not take into account the latest Middle East protests.

The Pew Research Center did do a poll strictly about that and Romney seems to have been hurt by it: 48 percent of people polled disapproved of Romney's comments immediately following the attack, 26 percent approving.

The president's numbers were better: 45 percent approving, 36 percent disapproving.

There's a general sense that Romney is lagging behind, and some sniping within the Romney campaign has been surfacing, especially in a long Politico article.

Politico has a long article detailing a lot of the frustrations many staffers have with the way the campaign has gone so far, primarily blaming top strategist Stuart Stevens for a number of missteps including Romney's convention speech, Clint Eastwood's last minute impromptu talk with a chair and the hastily called press conference about the Libya attacks.

There's backbiting and infighting in every political campaign but when it leaks out into the press that's usually a sign the campaign's in some real trouble.

There has also been speculation that the GOP Super Pacs might be considering shifting their resources away from Romney and toward the Senate and House races. Karl Rove's Super Pac American Crossroads has for instance pulled out of Michigan. But an American Crossroads rep says that we're still a long way from pulling the plug on the presidential race. In all the states Romney has to win, this rep says he's still within the margin of error.

By TOM TANGNEY

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Comments (40)


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  • Chuck Gould wrote...
    The only polls that count....
    September 18, 2012 6:47 am
    will be those conducted November 6. It's going to be a circus until then. Secret footage of Romney channeling Rush Limbaugh ("everybody voting for Obama thinks they are a victim entitled to free food and housing from the government"), a new anti-Obama film opening this week, etc. It's like two leaky battleships trading salvos.
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  • Zagnut wrote...
    When this soundbite starts getting played in ads, Obama will suffer - and rightfully so. Romney is waiting for the right time to spring it.
    September 18, 2012 6:49 am
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyLmru6no4U
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Chuck Gould wrote...
    Zag, you're entirely right!
    September 18, 2012 7:29 am
    Obama failed to reverse the Bush era policies whereby we cut taxes for the wealthiest (hoping to stimulate the economy, and that didn't work) while simultaneously starting two wars. Historically, you raise taxes in time of war, not lower them. As far as taxes and spending go, we've really had just another four years of George Bush policies. No change from "Hope and Change" at all. Obama let us down.

    I blame Obama for a lot. I blame Obama for continuing the Bush bailout policy, instead of just letting the largest corporations fail. I blame Obama for failing to try to overturn the Bush era "Prescription Drug Benefit Program" and standing by, doing nothing, while 60-million some senior citizens get even more of a "free ride" from govt.

    Seriously, this may be the last presidential election in the United States. Whether Obama or Romney wins, we'll see yet *another* four years of discredited Bush-era economic practices, and by the time that's over we should be so far in debt that our political and social infrastructure could easily collapse.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Zagnut wrote...
    Chuck, if Obama is reelected there is no doubt about the imminent collapse.
    September 18, 2012 7:45 am
    If Romney is elected, it is possible he will make the right moves to stimulate the economy, which will in turn reduce unemployment and increase revenues. So, the choice is between certain doom and possible salvation.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • messiah101 wrote...
    CG
    September 18, 2012 7:52 am
    Don't allow the huge debt to fool ya. It wasn't that long ago that folks were saying the sky is falling when the US debt was just ONE TRILLION.Remember this truism,if you owe the bank a million dollars they own you,if you owe them $16,000,000,000 you own the banks.
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  • ron prevost wrote...
    So, messiah - are you saying the WE own CHINA ?
    September 18, 2012 8:53 am
    Somehow I don't think that's the way the world economy works.
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  • Rick (4) wrote...
    @ron
    September 18, 2012 10:46 am
    China only holds about 9% of the US debt. The majority of the debt is owed to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
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  • ron prevost wrote...
    Well that totally explains why
    September 18, 2012 12:27 pm
    SSI and Medicare have become dole/entitlements. Those trust funds have been gutted with little hope of replenishment, even with the Ryan plan.

    BTW - I think that China 9% is an old stat. I'd say it's closer to 20% now.

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  • messiah101 wrote...
    ron p
    September 18, 2012 11:14 am
    Nope what I'm saying is that China cannot afford to let our economy FAIL. If we fail they fail. Thats the way it works
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • ron prevost wrote...
    Problem is, messiah, it won't work much longer.
    September 18, 2012 12:30 pm
    With a full global economy, the global Ponzi scheme is exposed. .......... And China is going to get pissed pretty soon. Best NOT cut the military too deeply.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Top Grunt wrote...
    That is what they said about GM
    September 18, 2012 1:26 pm
    Nothing is to big to fail, and China will take what they have coming to them. GM should have went Bankrupt, that was the right thing to do, and worked through the courts to come out of it, Look at all of the airlines after 9/11 some went away others came out alright. And they were all bigger than GM. Let the market decide who wins and who loses, not the guy getting the most money from the special interest, unions, banks, who ever. China is failing on its own, just like Russia, socialism will always fail, and in the mean time the people suffer. Romney may not be able to fix it all but at least he will not run us over the cliff, which BO is heading for as fast as he and his socialist friend can.
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  • Kief Sloberman wrote...
    What Middle East protests?
    September 18, 2012 6:54 am
    Oh... you mean the pre-planned attack on our Embassies on 9/11 and the murder of American diplomats? I suppose we should just forget about the Ambassador's murder....since it hurts Obama's re-election chances. Just keep spiking the ball on Bin Laden and forget about dead diplomats. Another example of liberals eating their own. The Ambassador is now snuggly under the bus along with Obama's granny and Rev. Wright. Sure are a lot of bodies under there.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    "Your gonna need a BIGGER bus"
    September 18, 2012 7:12 am
    Comrade Dear Leader Obama!
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  • Moondoggie wrote...
    Turns out Romney was right
    September 18, 2012 7:42 am
    -----The Pew Research Center did do a poll strictly about that and Romney seems to have been hurt by it: 48 percent of people polled disapproved of Romney's comments immediately following the attack, 26 percent approving.----- Did any poll ask if anybody was bothered by the fact the Pres. Obama didn’t bother with extra security on 9/11?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Moondoggie wrote...
    Zagnut
    September 18, 2012 7:44 am
    Knowing the Republican establishment, they will start running the ads in mid November.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • ConservativeThinker wrote...
    Better....
    September 18, 2012 12:12 pm
    Better than using pictures of the Russian Navy and the Turkish Air Force to salute our service members for their service.. I am surprised the Retire Navy personnel asked to speak - did not see the Russian Navy on the REALLY BIG SCREEN.. and refuse to speak...
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  • Hayduke wrote...
    And which states do these 47% of good-for-nothings reside in?
    September 18, 2012 12:01 pm
    I know the GOP hates the fact checkers, but apparently Romney is disparaging his own party with his 47% gaffe:

    http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/09/17/fact-checked-romneys-47-of-non-taxpaying-americans-from-red-states/

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    47 Percenters, 99 Percenters.....
    September 18, 2012 12:34 pm
    Tomato, to-mah-to, potato, poe-tot-oh. It's time for some Roundup!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Cbrew wrote...
    Mynorthwest is downplaying Obama's advantage as best they can
    September 18, 2012 12:49 pm
    They keep mentioning slight lead here, slight lead there... Look at the electoral college... Obama needs to win like 2 or 3 swing states and this election is over... Contrary to what the fools in this blog feel, Obama is on track for reelection and it's not very close... it might be closer than Obama vs McCain but it's still not very close... Obama isn't trailing in any of the battleground states... he's winning the most crucial ones and Romney's support is fading fast... he's already giving up on Michigan, he's getting beat all over the map really... Romney will win the states that have always voted Republican... but he's not making in-roads in traditional battleground states... All these Polls show relatively close races... but Obama would have to lose all those races where he's showing leads in the polls right now in the battlegrounds for Romney to pull this off... it's over for Romney, question is will Dems take back Congress?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • It's me! Ha ha! wrote...
    Look at the electoral college... Obama needs to win like 2 or 3 swing states and this election is over..
    September 18, 2012 1:59 pm
    Cbrew Just how much ahead, Don't count the overbalance of Liberal voters, is Obama in those states? Let's revisit this in a week, or less, and see how much of a "Lead" Obama may have.

    And, of course, let's not forget about the 6th of November. Romney, at the will and vote of us Americans, becomes PRESIDENT ROMNEY!

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Cbrew wrote...
    It's Me! Ha ha! - you can dream i suppose
    September 18, 2012 2:23 pm
    but it's not happening... There's been no bounce for Romney, he gained all of his voters early... lost steam, and has only lost more and more and more... at his very best... he never held an advantage over the president ESPECIALLY in the electoral College. Romney is a waste of a candidacy, he's a fraud that the American people will never get behind... What's wrong with you Republicans is you've decided all you want to do is please Republicans... that doesn't work.. you will NEVER win an election with only YOUR party's support... You need the center... the independents.. you need the balance... you've driven so far away from the middle that what you used to consider conservative, is now liberal in your eyes... and you've failed to work with anybody else... that's not how politics work, that's not how a DEMOCRACY works.. you've failed this nation and your candidate is a failure as well... Get a guy with LEADERSHIP qualities and a willingness to be open to the American people I.E. not a guy that refuses to show his Tax returns even though his own Father pushed for ALL politicians to be open with the American people... Find somebody that can lead... isn't divisive... isn't absolutely ignorant to the rest of the people in America... and you might have a shot again... you need to quit pandering to the extreme right wing and the tea party, you'll never regain the Presidency like this.
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