The Seahawks have won and covered the spread in all seven of their home games this season. Now they face the Rams on Sunday at CenturyLink Field as 11-point favorites.
It's easy to understand why the line's so high. The Seahawks have outscored their opponents 150-30 in their last three games, easily covering the spread against Arizona, Buffalo and San Francisco.
The Rams are no longer the pushovers of the NFC West under new head coach Jeff Fisher, and they have a Week 4 win over the Seahawks to prove it. (AP)
That was a big game. A playoff berth was on the line.
But this game? Yes, it would be nice if the Seahawks could win their fifth game in a row to keep the momentum going into the playoffs. And yes, there's a chance they could still be the NFC West champs if Arizona beats San Francisco on Sunday.
But the chances of that happening are slim, as you know. The Cardinals are 17-point underdogs. The game's in San Francisco. The 49ers are upset about the blowout loss to the Seahawks. The Cardinals are starting Brian Hoyer at quarterback and have lost 10 of their last 11 games.
As a result, human nature comes into play. The Seahawks are in a letdown spot, not really needing this game. Win or lose, they will likely end up with the No. 5 playoff seed on the NFC side of the bracket.
Even if the Seahawks needed to win, the Rams shouldn't be 11-point underdogs. Jeff Fisher's a great coach. The Rams were 2-14 last year and are 7-7-1 in Fisher's first season.
The Rams have a shot at their first winning season since 2003. They have offensive weapons in Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson and my favorite Ram, Brandon Gibson, the former Coug who leads the team with five touchdowns.
Defensively, the Rams have recorded 46 sacks, 9.5 by Robert Quinn and 8.5 by Chris Long. Don't forget, too, that the Rams are 4-0-1 against the NFC West, beating the Seahawks 19-13 in September.
They also have Legatron, Greg Zuerlein, who booted four field goals against the Hawks, including cross-country boots of 60 and 58 yards.
Also keep in mind that the Rams have won their last three road games.
When you add it all up, this looks like a game that Seattle will win but won't cover the spread.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 23.
Season record against the spread: 12-3.