Every Democrat’s favorite statistician, the New York Times’ Nate Silver, is wading into the world of sports again, this time for March Madness.
Sure, Nate Silver nailed the most recent Presidential election, getting all 50 states correct … and dozens of congressional races too.
But what about the statistical nightmare that is the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where upsets are the rule?
Well, did you know Silver correctly predicted last year’s winner? That’s right, he picked Kentucky to win it all and they did. He got March Madness right!
Then again, Silver freely admits that they were already one of the favorites and that result was as much a matter of luck as skill. Even his own forecast at the time said Kentucky only had a 27 percent chance to take it all. So even then, Kentucky bucked the odds, only a one in four chance to win.
This time out, Silver is staying in the state of Kentucky for his pick, but it’s Louisville who he says has the best chance – but again, they’ve only been given a 23 percent chance of winning. It’s just better than any other single team’s chances.
What does he think of Gonzaga’s chances? Well, the good news is he thinks it has the best chance among the 16 teams in the West Regional to make it to the Final Four.
But overall, he only gives the Bulldog’s a 6 percent chance to win it all.