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According to Silver's numbers, Barack Obama has an 86 percent chance of winning enough votes in the electoral college to receive a second term as President of the United States. (AP Photo/File)

The numbers don't lie; but which poll numbers are you looking at?

BY Alyssa Kleven  on November 5, 2012 @ 6:23 pm (Updated: 6:33 am - 11/6/12 )

MyNorthwest's Election Night: Listen, watch, and get live results

When it comes to poll numbers, candidates and their campaigns want two things, according to KIRO Radio's Dave Ross.

They want the real numbers to help their campaign strategy, but they also want numbers that will show the public they're going strong and have a real chance of winning.

That's why many conservatives so strongly disdain New York Times poll guru Nate Silver. According to Silver's numbers, Barack Obama has an 86 percent chance of winning enough votes in the electoral college to receive a second term as President of the United States.

Silver's Five Thirty Eight blog on the New York Times has become the target of conservatives who feel that the author's personal bias is getting in the way of the numbers. Silver correctly predicted the popular vote split in the 2008 presidential election and was only four votes off of correctly predicting Barack Obama's number in the electoral college. This year, in graphs that show Obama's chance of winning from June until now, Romney has always been the underdog, often times significantly so.

When it comes to those maps that divide our country in two: red and blue, Silver's blue is overwhelming especially when compared to Dean Chamber's map from Unskewed Polls.

"This isn't a guy (Chambers) in the Wall Street Journal or a part of the journalism establishment," said Luke.

Chambers doesn't want his polling data to be swept under the rug, so he went on the attack and aimed is fury at Silver.

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Luke has examined Silver's data, and said he feels confident in those numbers, and in the 86 percent chance of an Obama victory.

"And to the people who are saying [Silver] couldn't possibly know what he's talking about because he's a slight, effeminate (read: gay) man in their estimation and he couldn't possibly know what's going on," said Luke, "but tomorrow night, we'll know who was right."

Luke says that he'll be interested to hear what KTTH's Michael Medved has to say Tuesday night on Your Vote 2012 if the election is called for Barack Obama. Luke assumes Medved doesn't look at Silver's polling models in a favorable light. "Alternately, if Mitt Romney wins I will have to jump off a bridge," said Luke. "Because I've been believing Nate Silver's data, and I'm clearly a fool for doing so."

Something interesting is going to happen - no matter what.

Alyssa Kleven, MyNorthwest.com Editor
Alyssa Kleven is an editor and content producer at MyNorthwest.com. She enjoys doting over her adorable dachshund Winnie - named for Arcade Fire front-man Win Butler.
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Comments (28)


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  • ron prevost wrote...
    Well, Dave. in only 26 hours or so, we should know which polls (and pols) were right.
    November 5, 2012 6:02 pm
    Except, of course, in Washington State where we need wait at least a week for the wonderful all mail in ballots to be counted. ... And then, of course, if the favorite democrats aren't loosing too badly, more time to fine those 'discovered' pallets of ballots in King County.

    But don't be surprised if it's not Ross colored glasses that turn the country red election night.

    And Luke, you might start looking for some low, safe bridge tonight.

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  • logical open mind wrote...
    I used to have some respect for Dave R with the "crusaders for common sense" but since Dave ran for office and lost he has turned into a political hack.
    November 5, 2012 7:10 pm
    I rarely listen now. Picking sterotypical lefty Luke was a bad choice for intellecual listeners who care about more than Luke and his hip friends topics they discuss at the latest trendy cafe.
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  • jaiden73 wrote...
    Election
    November 5, 2012 9:08 pm
    Hi, new to the site and really don't know if left wing or right. I'm Independent because left or right wing have there religious views and I like to be independent so I can read both sides and give my input. So here is my take on the election. Silver is not always correct in his poll evaluations. Obama has an 80% of being re-elected? I don't think that is even a close bet. So I have my reasons not voting Obama back in. 1. 800 Billion failed stimulus. 2. He should have been a Senator for the whole term to know the ropes. He didn't. He was Senator for 143 days into his first term. 3. Obama added 6 Trillion to the deficit, but Bush spent 10.1 Trillion counting the fiscal year. 4. Obama was given money by 2 colleges to right some law report or something, but instead he wrote his autobiography. 5 In noway did Obama deserve the Noble Peace Prize. That is given to people who have achieved many things to make the world better. Not because they think he will do for the country. 6. No need to train Afghanistan soldiers, because that vould back fire on us. 7. This is tricky because of how Romney said it and how the public percieved it. The 47% thing was wrong to say but in away it would not make people angry. Heres the kicker the 53% are pretty much pissed off because they are paying for the 47% that need help. So that is something not to take very serious because it could hurt Obama. 8. Michelle Obama appears on a kids show called iCarly? Then the biggest mistake she made cost Obama big time. His wife hugged the Queen Of England. That is one thing you do not do, is to even touch the Queen. So they were are not allowed back ever to the Palace. I'm using numbers so you can give input from both sides. Ok now 9. Obama kneeled down to Saudia Arabian King or whatever they call them. That was not something he should have done because it makes us look weak. Finally the race is closer than we expect it to be, and CBS, NBC, ABC and others will not put up poll numbers until that state is finished. As far as polls are, you have Gallup, Pew, and others and there are to many miscalculations. But as I said I'n Independent and like to here both sides on there take. So I hope I di not anger anyone. I just like to put my say in matters. Whoever wins has to get this country back on it's feet. We need to stop being the world police because we are having a hard enough time trying to kil each other. Don't know much about Romney, if I did he would have things said he has done wrong. Sorry it's a long post. I hope I can still be a member. Thanks
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  • gaymarriedchristianfromhollywood wrote...
    Let me help you out with a few points.
    November 6, 2012 4:59 am
    47% of the country pay no income taxes, this is true. But there is no fair accounting in which 47 percent of Americans take no “personal responsibility and care for their lives.” A mathematical breakdown follows: - 53.6 percent of households pay the federal income tax. - 28.3 percent of households pay no federal income tax, but they pay payroll taxes. That means they don’t need Mitt Romney to convince them to “take personal responsibility and care for their lives.” They already have jobs. - Most of the households in this group don’t pay any federal income tax because they qualify for enough deductions that their income tax liability has shrunk to zero. See this Tax Policy Center report for more, which gives an example of “a couple with two children earning less than $26,400. They get an $11,600 standard deduction and four exemptions of $3,700, and that takes their liability to zero.” Indeed, it’s worth noting that many of these deductions and credits were part of the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts, which Romney wants to extend. — 10.3 percent of households pay no federal income tax because they’re retired and elderly. Many retirees aren’t taxed on their Social Security benefits, which they earned by paying into the system over many years. If Mitt Romney secretly thinks that these households are all irresponsible freeloaders, he has a weird way of showing it, as he keeps insisting that he doesn’t want to cut Medicare or Social Security benefits for those over the age of 65. — That leaves 6.9 percent of households which are non-elderly and have incomes less than $20,000 per year and aren’t paying the payroll tax. These poorer households pay neither income taxes nor payroll taxes. Perhaps Romney thinks that they should all pay more in federal taxes. It’s hard to say. But this is also a much smaller fraction of Americans. Also, the vast majority of Americans still pay state and local taxes — in fact, these taxes tend to be more regressive. When you add up all the different types of taxes, most income groups in the United States tend to pay an amount that’s roughly commensurate with their share of the national income.
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  • Hayduke wrote...
    "Romney has always been the underdog,...."
    November 5, 2012 9:16 pm
    Considering his dog once rode above him on the roof of his car, I'd say karma's a bittch!
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  • rational wrote...
    Considering his dog once rode above him on the roof of his car, I'd say karma's a bittch!
    November 6, 2012 12:44 am
    LOL...you better hope not or what sort of karma is in Obama's future for having eaten dogs?
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  • Hayduke wrote...
    jaiden73: "new to the site,....I hope I can still be a member."
    November 5, 2012 9:41 pm
    You'll learn soon enough. All you need to do to "be a member" is to constantly talk smack to people here you disagree with politically.

    For example, one of my favorite foils here goes by the nickname, "It's me, HaHa" You will be challenged to find a post of his that don't employ the words "left-wing parrots, Dear leader," and "Re-immac chances." If you're looking to read some mishmash of barely intelligible garbage, he's your go=to guy.

    Another goes by the name of "Bill Law," who never fails to insist that anyone who thinks differently than him is "clinically insane."

    You'll also learn that putting forth cogent, well-thought and sourced arguments is waaay down on the list for being a member here. Posts like that don't get read, much less addressed with thoughtful responses. That doesn't stop me from trying, but I've come to realize and accept that this site is simply about doing battle for the sake of doing battle, nothing more. And guess some of us need that, no matter what side of the aisle we sit on.

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  • C"mon Man wrote...
    What difference does it make? They are both the same.
    November 5, 2012 10:21 pm
    Is a analogy I hear a lot, but what really happens is that the stall wart Far left and far right line up behind whom ever they trot out, then their is group in the middle who is courted. What am I talking about? like over at the DC country club known as congress, where 14 elitist known as the gang of 14 can set policy because their leadership is bent on partisanship. President Obama was the guy who was the alternative to 8 years of the GOP machine,and now a white bread Gov. is offering a alternative to a leader who explained to Joe the plumber that he wanted to "spread the wealth". America is now weary of the political machine,the real problem is congress,living large and flying under the radar, any POTUS can propose anything, but the congress has a single digit approval rating, and both sides are dead set against working together, and the victory will be hollow, as elitist on both sides will side with their checkbook holding leaders, as opposed to you and me.
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  • Publius wrote...
    The elephant in the romm
    November 5, 2012 10:32 pm
    What are Gary Johnson's numbers looking like? All the people that ignored him in their polling, may get bitten in the keister. He won't win, but he may meet or beat 5%, which could be a game changer coming down the road. The votes he won, may determine the outcome.
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  • flipper wrote...
    Who's Gary Johnson?
    November 6, 2012 11:06 am
    According to Ross and Burbank the Constitution party candidate, Virgil Goode, who I've heard of maybe once is the leading third party candidate. I believe everything Ross and Burbank say... ;-)
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  • jaiden73 wrote...
    All The Same
    November 6, 2012 6:35 am
    I have to agree that they are all the same. What I do hate i when we have someone run for president promising and saying they will change things. They all lie just to get elected into office. It has been like that for years and will go on for many more. Polls are Polls. Oh just call me Jaiden please.
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  • rational wrote...
    No matter what...
    November 6, 2012 12:43 am
    about half the country is point to be ticked off...and many Obama supporters have vowed to riot and assassinate Romney.

    Hopefully we'll see soon who wins and which polls were wrong.

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  • sportsguru wrote...
    I don't know
    November 6, 2012 6:24 am
    That last post by CH was actually pretty well thought out and intelligent and actually on point. At least pat the man on the back when he makes a good point.
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  • Zoeller wrote...
    The numbers don't lie But-
    November 6, 2012 6:27 am
    Number crunchers do.. Just like what Ross & Burbank do every day take real facts and then twist and distort them into something they like.
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  • Pat McGrone wrote...
    "Failed Stimulus" tells all
    November 6, 2012 8:08 am
    The Stimulus did not fail. When the economy is retracting, and consumers stopped buying due to home value loss and job loss, the only way to keep the economy from free fall is for the government to spend and inject money into the economy. Leading economists agree the stimulus worked and most said it should have been bigger. Millions of jobs were saved and created. New investments in technology, checkout out what ARPA-E is working on. Yes some investments failed, about 8% which is better than Bain Capitals failed investment rate.
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  • Cbrew wrote...
    The numbers do not lie
    November 6, 2012 8:58 am
    Republicans do all day long though. They got their collective heads in the sand ignoring the facts that Obama is leading in Ohio, leading in most of the swing states... The numbers are fine, they're accurate, the problem is Republicans refuse to believe them. They're so absolutely delusional they think this is going to be close, and as far as the Popular vote, it may be, but not in the electoral college. He'll win by a fair margin in the electoral college... What this means is, Republicans have succeeded in 1 thing this election cycle, they've turned Red states even more red... They have achieved further divisiveness as well... Repubs have been completely brainwashed by their propoganda machine Faux News. Like how they put out the BS Benghazi reports from supposed "CIA" agents with orders to go help that were "ignored" and all this trash... The CIA agents they're talkin about, went to the compound 20 minutes after the first reports, most of that time was spent gearing up and getting ready, this is not some cooked up report, this is what the agents on the ground said, this is why Republicans can't be trusted, they're so stupid they'll take Fox news at its word and forget it's a far right source of propaganda, not news.
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