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Political analysts say President Obama's overwhelming victory with minorities and women exposes a fundamental flaw in the GOP the party must address if it wants any shot at the White House in the future. (AP Photo)

What the election means for Obama, GOP

BY Josh Kerns  on November 7, 2012 @ 11:19 am (Updated: 12:38 pm - 11/7/12 )

President Barack Obama's overwhelming victory over Mitt Romney and passage of gay marriage and marijuana measures in a number of states is being hailed by some as a resounding win for progressives, and an even bigger indictment of the state of the Republican Party.

But noted political analyst David Mark with Politix.com told Ross and Burbank it's not so clear cut because the nation remains almost evenly divided along party and ideological lines.

"Mitt Romney still got about 49 percent of the popular vote, the House of Representatives is still in Republican hands and Republicans did knock off some Democrats," Mark said.

And he pointed out most importantly, Obama only narrowly won the statewide vote in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

"It doesn't undercut his win. He defeated Mitt Romney, no doubt about it. Democrats had a nice night, but it's not a fundamental sea change. We're still a closely divided nation and Democrats right now have the upper hand. I'd rather be in the Democrat's position rather than the Republican's, but this may not be long lasting."

Still, Mark and many other analysts say it's clear the Republicans have a fundamental problem: a growing base of predominantly white voters while the nation becomes more ethnically diverse.

"That is a group of voters that's getting smaller and smaller and they can no longer write off the people who live in cities, the people of color, the people of a certain age," said KIRO Radio's Luke Burbank. "And a day of reckoning is coming for the Republican party because their model for getting voters is inherently flawed at this point."

Romney captured just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote, while John McCain took 31 percent in 2008. The Republicans also got trounced among women and young voters.

But Mark said he doesn't expect the GOP to dramatically change overnight.

"It's going to take a while. And the 2010 election showed if Republicans want to motivate, frankly white voters, they can still do so. It's tougher to do in a presidential race when you have so many people voting, but you can't dismiss that. White voters are still 72 percent of the electorate," he said.

In the meantime, things in Washington are seemingly unchanged with President Obama returning to the White House, Republicans maintaining control of the House and Democrats the Senate. Some predict four more years of gridlock and bitter partisan divide. But there is some precedent for compromise, such as President Clinton's second term when he begrudgingly crafted deals with the GOP led House before becoming embroiled in his impeachment scandal.

Still, Mark wouldn't be surprised if Obama simply tried to maneuver around Congress with executive orders and other procedural moves to push his agenda in his second term.

"I think that President Obama may try and do an end run around Congress wherever possible."

Mark does predict Congress and Obama will find a way to work together in the short term as the nation faces a so-called "fiscal cliff" of mandatory budget cuts that threaten to slash defense and social programs along with a looming two percent payroll tax hike if an agreement isn't reached by the end of the year.

"I believe they will get something done, but it's not going to be pretty because their activist bases won't allow it," Mark said. "They'll have to go into it kicking and screaming and having PR fights. So I think it's going to be right up to the deadline and then we'll get a deal that neither side really likes, but has to live with. I think it's the best we can hope for right now."

Josh Kerns, MyNorthwest.com Reporter
Josh Kerns is co-host of KIRO Radio's Seattle Sounds (Saturday nights 7-8) and a digital content producer for MyNorthwest.com.
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Comments (6)


  • Add A Comment

  • cdbtx wrote...
    A revealing number
    November 7, 2012 12:27 pm
    Obama won by +12 in Washington State

    Inslee appears to win by +2.5

    Initiative 1185 - +29

    The Democratic promise - "Free Stuff", much like Western Europe

    Obama +12, Inslee +2.5 trend toward the promise of "Free Stuff", The OVERYWHELMING win of 1185 by +29 (Which blew gay marriage and pot away), Take away the conservative votes which trend towards lower taxes and smaller gov't - which leaves a large percent of Liberals which voted for "Free Stuff".

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  • HLC wrote...
    What would make anyone think?
    November 7, 2012 12:40 pm
    The president who uses the term It's My Way Or the Hiway is willing to work with you unless you go his way. He will not try to work with the right, he will use the back door deals he used the first four then blame it on Bush.
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  • TwoTrees wrote...
    Four more years. Oh dear...
    November 7, 2012 2:32 pm
    Who's Obama going to blame for the mess he just inherited?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • mpgunner wrote...
    Welcome to the US of Entitlement
    November 7, 2012 9:17 pm
    Great job on honoring failure...
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  • TheSymbolForBoron wrote...
    This line that 60 million people want 'free stuff' and are failures
    November 8, 2012 6:22 am
    While you're waiting for Karl Rove to tell you that you actually won Ohio...

    Got news for you delusional righties. Half of the country doesn't want free stuff. That's just something you heard Palin say on Fox. I heard it too but, unlike you, I think she's just a vapid media hoar who should be a comedian.

    We'd just like people like Romney to either pay a little more in taxes OR we can take away their ability to hide their money offshore, therefore avoiding their substantial tax obligations.

    Of course you have to rationalize your way out of the fact that it was precisely your simpleton 'thought' process that got your as$es to you in the election.

    Your VP candidate thinks that rape is just "another means of conception". "Legitimate rape" that is. NPR is not what is wrong with the country. Planned Parenthood is not what is wrong with the country. We need to keep you nuts away from the selection process for the Supreme Court. THAT's what 60 million people told nuts like you. Stay away.

    So keep whining. The world has changed and you are fast becoming irrelevant. You are becoming irrelevant because of the way you think and because of the opinions you've voiced here.

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  • longwayhome wrote...
    The symbol
    November 10, 2012 7:38 pm
    Well said. The persons who vote republican need to re-examine.....what am I thinking... that will never happen. They will continue to lose elections and will not know why. It's pointless to argue with someone that is deaf to the truth, and blind as well.
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