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New York Times number-guy Nate Silver accurately predicted the outcome of all 50 states in the Presidential election - now he's predicting who will make it to the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/File)

Nate Silver picks the Super Bowl

BY Dave Ross  on January 11, 2013 @ 5:45 am (Updated: 9:47 am - 1/11/13 )

I'm pretty even-handed on most issues, but as a Seattleite, I cannot resist reporting as authoritatively as I can the latest prediction by New York Times oracle Nate Silver - the man who correctly called all 50 states in the last election, and who now predicts that the two Superbowl teams will be New England and Seattle.

Now, Seattle is a city which hasn't won a national trophy in a professional sport since 1979. And all we have from that is a dusty banner hanging in an empty arena, because the NBA team that won it was sold to Oklahoma City.

So when Nate Silver predicts the Seahawks will again make it to the Super Bowl, the Space Needle stands a little straighter.

He is using a very sophisticated database called Football Outsiders that ranks teams based on how they perform in crucial situations - which is interesting since the Football Outsiders site itself is actually picking San Francisco to win the NFC which would mean Seattle wouldn't make it to the Super Bowl.

Nate Silver acknowledges that if you just go by the book San Francisco does have an edge.

"With Seattle though, you really saw a team that was blowing people out in the second half of the year," adds Silver.

So he's decided to work in a little fudge factor called momentum.

"I do think with the Seattle team that did come on so strongly in the second half, you worry - can other coaches readjust to them potentially? Talent wise I'm not sure it's a team that has as much talent."

Stop with the qualifiers. We spend the winter in this remote corner of America, sitting in a perpetual mist, praying for just a little global warming to take the chill off, staring at our 34-year-old NBA championship banner from a team that isn't even HERE - I don't see why one Super Bowl trophy is too much to ask.

Dave Ross, KIRO Radio Talk Show Host
Dave Ross is co-host of The Ross & Burbank Show on KIRO Radio (weekdays 9-Noon) and never too far from the spotlight.
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Comments (11)


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  • mnpat wrote...
    Dave says, "I'm pretty even-handed on most issues"
    January 11, 2013 7:03 am
    ROFLMAO!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Chuck Gould wrote...
    My heart says "Seahawks", but head says maybe not.
    January 11, 2013 7:44 am
    This is the best Seahawks team we have had in many years. Maybe that we have ever had. It's as good a team as most cities will ever have. Several very highly talented players, including the quarterback and our "beast mode" running back, are fresh young players. We're not fielding as many of the worn-out cast offs, just past their prime, the Seahawks so often used to hire from other teams. The coaching staff is doing a fabulous job of getting the players to perform cohesively.

    Do they have enough raw talent to beat the top teams with a little more experience? That's the question that will be resolved this weekend, and perhaps extend to the weeks beyond.

    I think the Seahawks have a huge future, if they stay healthy. Will 2013 be the year the Hawks claim the first ever NFL Championship for Seattle? That would be fantastic. But if not this year, watch out in '14 or '15. If this team continues to improve, they will be in a league of their own.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • logical open mind wrote...
    one thing for sure is Russell Wilson has been fantastic, is a leader and as corny as this may sound a role model.
    January 11, 2013 8:27 am
    Wilson, RG3 have given all young boys, and especially black boys a true man,leader to look up to. I hope they have years and years of success.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • messiah101 wrote...
    Logical
    January 11, 2013 8:56 am
    "BOYS" who look to athletes as role models of some type should be taught to look elsewhere.Wilson has done a FANTASTIC job as the QB of the Hawks but lets wait a while before Saint hood is bestowed upon him OK?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • SALIFE wrote...
    This guy is late!!S3AHAWKS GOIN ALL DA WAY!!!
    January 11, 2013 9:06 am
    There's something bout 201(3)is different for da HAWKS! 8(3) was last time, bout (3)0 years ago wen HAWKS....DANGERUSS Is #3 QB...the last (3) out of the rookie QB still in da game! All I'm sayin is dis da year of da S3ATTLE S3AHAWKS 201(3) all da way to da Super Bowl and to win da Super Bowl! For reals! Let's go HAWKS!!!!!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • soo purletiv wrote...
    Dave just offended
    January 11, 2013 7:39 pm
    half the population of Seattle, plus the entire gay community. Oh wait! I already calculated that half the population was offended.

    He stated that Seattle is a city which hasn't won a national trophy in a professional sport since 1979 .

    He may want to tell that to the Storm.

    By that comment, half the population (women, and effeminate men) of Seattle are now in tears. Add to those numbers the gay community, and, well I guess still only half the population are offended.

    Further, how does Dave define "trophy"? Since he didn't state "championship", one could argue the Sonics, the Mariners, the Sounders, as well as the Seahawks have all won "national trophies" since 1979.

    Either way, this numbers guy is just voodoo. It has no bearing in reality, and has nothing to do with the outcome of the game on Sunday. A lot of people have formulas for politics, sports and other "entities" that have certain success, until they fail.

    The only numbers that count, are the final numbers on the scoreboard.

    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • MmMerrifield wrote...
    oh by the way...
    January 13, 2013 11:08 am
    Voodoo is a valid form of magic. just because you don't believe in it doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Country_Dog wrote...
    I bet Nate Silver
    January 12, 2013 9:23 am
    has never watched a football game in his life. Just look at him.
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Rangerhawk wrote...
    It's America, anything is possible
    January 13, 2013 5:49 am
    In a year where a president with losing record wins reelection, it's not so hard to beleieve the Seahawks could win the Superbowl as a wild-card with a rookie QB!
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • MmMerrifield wrote...
    I'm confused...
    January 13, 2013 11:02 am
    Isn't the WNBA a Professional sport? didn't the Seattle Storm win back in 2010 and 2004?
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • Nolm N Sayn wrote...
    Epic
    January 13, 2013 11:14 pm
    FAIL
    { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }
  • { "Thumbs Up":"1","Thumbs Down":"-1" }