The numbers don’t lie; but which poll numbers are you looking at?
When it comes to poll numbers, candidates and their campaigns want two things, according to KIRO Radio’s Dave Ross.
They want the real numbers to help their campaign strategy, but they also want numbers that will show the public they’re going strong and have a real chance of winning.
That’s why many conservatives so strongly disdain New York Times poll guru Nate Silver. According to Silver’s numbers, Barack Obama has an 86 percent chance of winning enough votes in the electoral college to receive a second term as President of the United States.
Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog on the New York Times has become the target of conservatives who feel that the author’s personal bias is getting in the way of the numbers. Silver correctly predicted the popular vote split in the 2008 presidential election and was only four votes off of correctly predicting Barack Obama’s number in the electoral college. This year, in graphs that show Obama’s chance of winning from June until now, Romney has always been the underdog, often times significantly so.
When it comes to those maps that divide our country in two: red and blue, Silver’s blue is overwhelming especially when compared to Dean Chamber’s map from Unskewed Polls.
“This isn’t a guy (Chambers) in the Wall Street Journal or a part of the journalism establishment,” said Luke.
Chambers doesn’t want his polling data to be swept under the rug, so he went on the attack and aimed is fury at Silver.
Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he’s made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.
Luke has examined Silver’s data, and said he feels confident in those numbers, and in the 86 percent chance of an Obama victory.
“And to the people who are saying [Silver] couldn’t possibly know what he’s talking about because he’s a slight, effeminate (read: gay) man in their estimation and he couldn’t possibly know what’s going on,” said Luke, “but tomorrow night, we’ll know who was right.”
Luke says that he’ll be interested to hear what KTTH’s Michael Medved has to say Tuesday night on Your Vote 2012 if the election is called for Barack Obama. Luke assumes Medved doesn’t look at Silver’s polling models in a favorable light. “Alternately, if Mitt Romney wins I will have to jump off a bridge,” said Luke. “Because I’ve been believing Nate Silver’s data, and I’m clearly a fool for doing so.”
Something interesting is going to happen – no matter what.