In using public opinion polls to
predict electoral outcomes, it’s crucial to consider not only what people feel but how passionately they feel it. That’s why some of the interior details of a new AP-GfK poll should terrify Democrats even more than its broad outlines.
The public not only disapproves of the president’s performance by a margin of 20 points, but a mere 14% say they “strongly approve” of this president. More than twice as many-36%-strongly disapprove. On all nine issues posed to the public, respondents disapproved of Obama’s management by margins ranging from 9 to 27 percentage points.
On the economy, 22% say it’s “very poor” and a mere 2% rate it “very good.” It’s not just overall numbers, but the intensity and fervor of the president’s opponents that could give the GOP a sweeping victory of historic significance.