Updated Apr 4, 2011 - 7:52 pm

Remember May?

By Dave Cameron

(Editor's note: Dave Cameron of USS Mariner writes a weekly column for the Brock and Salk blog focusing on baseball from a statistical perspective. Salk will be writing for USS Mariner as well, and actualy finished a post that will be up there shortly.)

Let's play a quick game called "Remember May?", though I make no promises that this game will be fun for anyone involved.

Even though the team fell apart that month, three players on the team were highly productive. Here are their lines in May:

Mike Seweney: .310/.349/.555 (BA/OBP/SLG), 63 PA
Franklin Gutierrez: .264/.396/.396, 111 PA
Josh Wilson: .300/.364/.413, 88 PA

Sweeney provided the power, launching six home runs while spending a decent amount of time at DH. Gutierrez provided the patience, drawing 20 walks in a single month. Josh Wilson provided surprising offense from the shortstop position, knocking six extra base hits and drawing seven walks. All three players were hailed for their offensive surges. In the case of Gutierrez, I was right there with everyone else, talking about how his new found patience could be a legitimate step forward and something that could make him a more valuable offensive player going forward. Others were sold on Sweeney or Wilson, arguing that they just needed regular playing time to prove what they could really do.

Well, here's how those three have performed since June 1st.

Mike Sweeney: .230/.299/.311, 67 PA
Franklin Gutierrez: .221/.258/.319, 320 PA
Josh Wilson: .227/.278/.278, 209 PA

Sweeney stopped hitting for power, as he has one home run since May ended. Gutierrez stopped walking - 11 unintentional walks from June through August. Josh Wilson stopped doing anything useful at the plate. Not only did they not carry forward their newfound gains, they took dramatic steps back, even from what they had been previously. Their performances in May were, in reality, illusions. Gutierrez still hasn't figure out how to lay off the breaking ball away. Sweeney still doesn't have any power. Josh Wilson still can't hit major league pitching.

For one month, they made people think that something was different, that they had magically improved their abilities in a short period of time. It wasn't real, though. It was just the normal variance you see over the course of a long baseball season. Guys go hot and cold, and they do so for no reason whatsoever. Once we are all able to accept that not every hot or cold streak has a cause or an explanation, the better we'll be able to figure out what to expect in the future.

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Stevil wrote...

Be Fair

September 2, 2010 8:01 am

Sweeney went on the disabled list shortly after that streak. To say that he "magically" improved his abilities, is BS. When he's healthy, he is solid. He didn't hit 200 home runs in his career or make 5 all-star appearances, because he sucked. Josh Wilson is starting to get consistent with his hitting again and you can make the argument that regular playing time does make the difference. You could also make the argument that there's a learning curve. Maybe you forgot, but Jack Wilson did make it back for a while. Think that could have had an affect? Of course it could! Negative or positive, it kept Josh off the field. As you said, guys go hot and cold. But there are reasons. You as a blogger, and someone who follows the Mariners closely, should know that. Injuries and playing-time are perfect examples. Change of location and position may be other reasons, though I don't want that to sound like excuses for Figgins, Bradley, or Lopez. Just wish you would stop with the negativity. Everyone knows the team bombed. To slam on the little that has been good, doesn't do anyone any good. You going to slam Felix next? How about Ichiro for hitting below his career average?

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erikec wrote...

negative?

September 2, 2010 8:51 am

Dave isn't being negative, he is being realistic. If he wanted to be negative he would point out that this team is much further from being average than the 101 loss 2008 team was. Or that Felix, Vargas (and Lee for half a season) had career years and the Mariners are still going to lose over 100 games. Or that the Mariners are building their future with players the division leader felt were expendable because they have even better talent to bring up. Or that they have to pay Figgins for 3 more years and Bradley for one more year. Or that Gutierrez has regressed. I could go on, but I won't.

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Stevil wrote...

It is negative

September 2, 2010 8:40 pm

So what is the alternative? Are fans not suppose to get excited when a player is on a hot streak or does well?! Not suppose to "believe big" or show confidence when there are signs of life?! Of course he was being negative. Sweeney isn't even on the team any more, so even dropping his name was a low-blow, and his blog is ripping on some of the few highlights this team has had this year! Not to mention, it was focused on the month of May, rather than August. Sure, there are many other things to be down about, or to worry about. But the last thing any fan (or writer who claims to be a fan) should do, is write-off (pun intended) the good things that have happened. Seriously, what was the intent? To make fans think twice about getting excited during hot streaks or have confidence in their team?! His blog sounds bitter and negative. And the fact that Felix and Jason have had career years, should be celebrated! Not viewed as a waste because the team as a whole will finish poorly. Negative it is (the blog). I'm not happy about the way the team has done as a whole this year, nor is any fan, but that's not going to stop me, or prevent me, from feeling good about the highlights or the remaining wins and accomplishments to come!

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Brock Huard

Brock Huard has co-hosted "Brock and Salk" since 2009. After earning Gatorade Player of the Year honors at Puyallup High School, Brock went on to a record-setting career at Washington and then spent six years in the NFL, including four with the Seahawks. Brock has also spent five years with ESPN working as a college football analyst in the booth and the studio. Brock makes his home on the Eastside with his wife Molly and their three young children.

Mike Salk

Mike Salk is the host of "Brock and Salk" on 710 ESPN Seattle and "SportsCenter Saturday with Mike Salk" on the ESPN Radio Network. He is also the regular fill-in host for the "Doug Gottlieb Show," also on ESPN Radio. Born and raised in Boston, Salk is a graduate of Pomona College (Go Sagehens!) and also lived in Los Angeles. He has been at 710 ESPN Seattle since its launch in 2009 and lives in Phinney Ridge with his wife Heather, daughter Avery and their french bulldog Wendell.

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