Update: Reynolds Sports Management, the agency that represents Justin Upton, posted on its Twitter account Tuesday that "Contrary to prior reports, the Seattle Mariners are NOT on Justin Upton's No Trade List."

Although the spotlight will fall on the four days that all of baseball gathers at the winter meetings, it typically is the week before and two weeks after the event that impacts signings and trades are made. We are in that window right now and the question is what impact moves will the Mariners make or not make? Will Jack Zduriencik stay the course slow and steady with his young additions to the farm system or will he look to close the gap with a high profile addition through a trade? In some years the choice would be made for him, the desired players simply wouldn't be made available.

That is not the case this year.

Justin Upton is the name that has been on everyone's lips the past week as the Diamondbacks put out the word that he is a available. Upton (who reportedly has a limited no-trade clause that includes Seattle) is available but only at a high price. Two top prospects would be the starting point we have heard. Count on surrendering a combination of Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, Justin Smoak or Franklin Gutierrez. The price is steep and this is by design. Arizona does not make the trade unless they win the trade. Chances are not good that the Mariners would not be able to land him. What the talk has done however is give us the opportunity to take a closer look at the values of these players to the team. It is a good exercise because others could come calling for these players and as tough as it may be to give them up, in certain situations it might be the right thing to do.

In the Upton case, at first blush I winced at the thought of giving up Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda. Quite frankly it sounded prepostrous. On closer look I would almost do it. The hard one to give up would be Pineda. Ackley, on the other hand, could be a huge bargaining chip that I would be comfortable parting with. I like Ackley. This is not a case of take the guy who has already done something at the big-league level over the guy who is supposed to do something. I do not think holding on to Ackley now would be anything like holding on to hot prospect Joel Pineiro 10 years ago. Pineiro has had a nice career but was not the ace or even solid No. 2 starter the organization thought he would be. I believe that Ackley is going to live up to expectations offensively. I believe he will get on base and he will score runs. I believe that he will be more than a singles hitter but that it will take some time, years, for consistent power to develop. I am not sure what he is going to be defensively at second but I do not think he will be a liability there. The problem is I am not sure he fills a crucial need on this team, not just next year but in the next three years. On a team that already has table setters in Ichiro and Chone Figgins, is the biggest need another one? Gutierrez is not a middle of the order hitter either. Again, Ackley is a very nice player, perhaps one to build around. The problem is you are already building around somewhat similar players.

All of this could change if they were able to trade Figgins, a move that would be at the top of my try-to-get-done list. Again, Figgins is a nice player but not an optimum fit on this team as it is now. It appears that going forward this team will utilize Figgins as a light-hitting third baseman and pay handsomely to do so. They also will be playing him out of position, not in the field but in the lineup. Figgins is a leadoff hitter. His value is maximized in his ability to get on base and get on in. To get things going, to set the tone. The Ichiro-Figgins one-two punch that looked so good on paper simply did not work. Figgins lost something while hitting second. Some who have known him over the years have also argued that he has lost something being kept at one position. It would appear that his value could be maximized elsewhere and there are teams looking for leadoff hitters. If the M's could move him, even if it meant taking on some of his salary it might not be a bad move for the future.

The Mariners need middle of the order hitters and they most likely will not be able to buy them on the free agent market. If the M's make an impact move in the next two months it will be through a trade. Upton is certainly a case of reaching for the stars and it is good (though not surprising) to see that Zduriencik would at least entertain the idea, even at such a high cost. What about those at a slightly lesser cost? An Upton-lite if you will. St. Louis' Colby Rasmus is said to be available and the Mariners have what the Cardinals are looking for in middle infielders. Could he be a better fit for this team over the next three years than Ackley? Which do you feel better about scoring runs, Guti/Smoak/Rasmus or a Guti/Ackley/Smoak? I don't have an answer. It would help if we knew for sure that Ackley would make a seamless transition to the major leagues but we don't. We know most do not. Such a move would be made only if Zduriencik thought it would close the gap.

Why fight to close the gap? Why not be slow and steady, stick with the prospects you are growing? You have made big commitments to guys who are already there. I am not saying mortgage the farm system. Do not give up top prospects for established veterans but do explore deals, some painful, for impact players who can help you now yet remain under club control for at least three more years.

In a television interview Felix Hernandez gave in Venezuela after winning the Cy Young Award last, week he looked straight at the camera and said, "I dream of putting the Mariners in the playoffs." He has got four years to do it and he needs help.

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