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Comments (14)
Do the math: Mariners destined to finish 4th
It's opening day of baseball season and even long-suffering fans can say their team is in first place. Yes, even the Pirates, the Cubs, the Astros and the Mariners. But sadly, it's likely none of those teams will finish where they started, in first place. How do we know? Do the math.
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  • Lessmith50 wrote...
    Does this really suprise anyone?
    it doesnt suprise me. I hope they have a winning season. I really do. I just dont have any faith whatsoever with this regime. Be it the front office or the ownership group. I know they stepped up for Felix. ITS about DAM TIME they kept one of their own. Too bad they did not figure that one out 10 -12 yrs ago. They should have never ever let their hall of famers walk. NEVER. I dont care what anyone says if you were a good front office in the first place those players would have never ever asked to be traded or walked. I truely believe that. I believe they did not care about anything but finances. You dont win anything in this league or any professional league when the bottom line is the ONLY thing. I hope they do good this year. Because if they throw out a 75 or less win season this year. There will be heck to pay. I believe that. this fan base is teetering on bailing for good.
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  • The Live Chicken wrote...
    Lessmith
    I understand your front-office frustration, but it really is no longer warranted given the moves we have made this offseason and the offers we attempted to make. At some point you need to switch your focus. Your argument has no credibility IF this team turns it around and starts to string together winning season, and it's hard to even say it has credibility if they don't. Time to realize that the performance of the players on the field has little if anything to do with who is sitting in or absent from the luxury skybox.
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  • The Live Chicken wrote...
    Sorry to nail you again, Lessmith
    But someone has to call you out. You are always consistent with railing on the FO for the Mariners. Above, though, you say that it is about time they stepped up for one of their own (Felix), but on a different thread you post this:

    "They did spend on players. They dumped Fort Knox on a pitcher that plays only once a week and has only won on average about 14 games a year. Yea that was worth at least 250 million instead of 175. Then they picked up all those blue light veteran specials at K-mart. Raul I love! He will be a huge asset in the clubhouse. He will hit too. I just hope Morse is off the juice and Morales i hope ankle holds out. Regardless none of them will be on the team next year. So how good were those signings"

    So, you hate the front office, except when they protect their players, but you thought the Felix deal was not worth it? And out of all the moves the M's made, you love Raul the most? Do you stop following the team when Raul is not there, and only look at the teams record?
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  • seaboyd wrote...
    Don't nee a magic formula...
    I hate to burst your bubble Professor but a little time and the knowledge of arithmetic can get you the same answer...not the same numbers but the same order of teams. However, I am making my preseason bet that Texas slides to 4th and the Mariners go into 3rd place. I can say for certain that the difference between the Rangers and the Mariners is not 16 (Professor) points. We'll have t come back to this article in say Aug/Sep??? Ed Boyd
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  • specracer47 wrote...
    No Way..
    This guys predicting 21 more wins for the A's? He's got to be kidding. M's will be a .500 team this year. Bank on it.
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  • Marinerman87 wrote...
    Haeck...more like hack
    Stick to what you know. This lineup is way better than last year's lineup. The pitching is solid. Last year's team won 75 games with an offense with Montero and Smoak floundering in the middle of the lineup without any protection. This team will probably not make the playoffs but you can bet on 82-85 wins.
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  • Largent803 wrote...
    That is more Realistic
    In looking at the M's this year I think they are an improved hitting team. I believe with their defense and the improvement in their offense they are right in between 81 and 85 wins this year.
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  • sfk360 wrote...
    cool story
    bro
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  • The Live Chicken wrote...
    here's where the credibility of this flies out the window a little
    "My model really uses past data, how the individual player has done for the past three years so if you have a team whose players haven't been around for that long, it probably doesn't reflect as well in my numbers."

    There you have it. Ackley, Seager, Montero both entering effectively their 2nd season. Michael Saunders has only had 1 full season. Jason Bay and Franklin Gutierrez have been injury plagued the last two, Kendry Morales missed the entire 2011 season. If his predictive model is based on the sentence above, then it does not accurately project the M's because several of the players on the offensive side can't be projected over three full major league seasons.

    And what about the A's? Their pithing: Straily, Griffin, Milone, and Parker, are ALL sophomores with one season under their belt, save for Straily who has lesss then half of one. There is not enough data to project their success this season based on his model. Cespedes, Reddick, and Sogard will also be playing in their second full season, save for Sogard who is a rookie, Jed Lowrie is always finding a way to get injured, and Chris Young has maybe had 1 season where he didn't strike out less than 200 times and bat over .240.

    I agree with alot of posters here: I don't expect a season like last years A's, but these Mariners are at least a .500 team.
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  • The Live Chicken wrote...
    Also, did anyone read the last line here?
    "And why not, on opening day, the Mariners are just one half game behind the first place Houston Astros, who opened the season Sunday night by beating Texas."

    Good grief the season is 162 games! Oakland took the lead on Texas last season by winning the final game of the season, against texas, after an improbably September run.

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  • Zoeller wrote...
    "Do the math"
    The numbers tell me that the M's will be in bottom of the MLB standing's in 2013.
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  • uralnutjobs wrote...
    astros are already in first place
    too bad tim didnt watch the game last night your math is already suspect.
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  • ron prevost wrote...
    Every year, if you 'do the math', you're right less than half the time.
    That's what makes baseball great. .. Who knew in 1995? Who expected Oakland last year with the big bats in Anaheim and Texas?

    We just might have a Detroit / Washington World Series, Who'd a thunk THAT 4 years ago ?

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