With apologies to Dori, walking and biking safer than driving

I hope you heard the fireworks on Thursday’s Dori Monson Show when Dori talked with Seattle Transportation Director Scott Kubly.

Kubly wrote an op-ed about the reason they’re taking away car lanes on Westlake for Transit.

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“It’s simple math,” Kubly said. “If South Lake Union already has as much traffic as it has, and it’s going to continue to grow which is a good thing, then we have to carry people in more efficient ways.”

So he’s saying they’re taking away the lanes to make room for more buses and make roads safer for bikes and pedestrians.

Dori challenged him to a lie detector test.

“I think that you guys, in general – in transportation planning – have contempt for those of us who must use their cars.”

“I disagree with that, but you’re entitled to how you feel,” Kubly said.

“Can I get a polygraph expert in here and ask that question of you when you come in studio with me? Let’s do that. Wouldn’t that be dramatic radio?” Dori said.

“I’m sure it would be great radio, but not great transportation planning,” Kubly said.

“And if you don’t have contempt then I’ll apologize and I’ll become your biggest cheerleader.” Dori said.

Clearly the stakes here are sky high.

That’s when they got into the statistics that Kubly put in his op-ed about safety. The big one being that pedestrians are involved in 3 percent of the accidents, but 50 percent of the fatalities.

“Are walking and biking the most dangerous conveyance?” Dori asked.

“No, I would argue it’s actually the safest, but it’s just that if you’re hit by a car that’s going too fast, it becomes very dangerous,” Kubly said.

“You said in your op-ed walking or biking represents 3 percent of collisions, but 50 percent of fatalities. Clearly it’s the most dangerous means of conveyance,” Dori said.

“We also want people walking because we have a climate change issue that’s happening. We want people walking and biking because it’s healthy.”

This was driving me nuts. Kubly actually thinks he’s going to change Dori’s mind with a climate change argument?

So let’s take this a step at a time.

The quote was that “pedestrians and cyclists represent 3 percent of collisions, but 50 percent of fatalities.” The 50 percent of fatalities is the number that jumps out at you. But that’s obvious. In a collision with a car, cyclists and pedestrians always lose. I’m surprised it’s not 100 percent.

The number they were ignoring is the first one. If walkers and cyclist are involved in 3 percent, it means that motorists are involved in the other 97 percent.

Sure enough, look at the overall figures for 2014:

Your chances of dying while pedaling a bicycle: 1 in 4,974

Your chances of dying while walking: 1:723

Your chances of dying while in a car: 1:112

You are 44 times more likely to die in a car than on a bicycle.

But, with apologies to Dori, arguing that more bikes would increase fatalities just isn’t supported by anything I could find.

I’ll just give you one stat on that. We’d agree that Manhattan is quite a bit larger than Seattle with many more bikes on the streets. A million and a half commuters take all modes of transportation. Total number of bicycle deaths in 2014: 2.

I can’t wait for the polygraph.