MICHAEL MEDVED

Election numbers make ‘faith based civil war’ less likely than before

Nov 12, 2020, 4:41 PM | Updated: Nov 13, 2020, 10:23 am

During the tumultuous and eventful four years of Donald Trump’s presidency, passionate partisans on both sides warned of the potential for a new civil war – a dreadful domestic conflict based, at least in part, on differences in religious outlook.

After this year’s fateful election, however, there’s reason to feel reassured that such faith-based differences have become less dangerous in shaping the polarization that afflicts our present politics.

Looking back at the exit polls from 2016, it’s easy to see why many observers saw religious conviction as the primary force driving Trump’s surprise victory.

Without the overwhelming support of self-described “white Evangelical, or Born Again Christians” the Boisterous Billionaire would have sunk beneath a blue tidal wave in a defeat of overwhelming proportions. Some 26% of all voters identified as Evangelicals, and went for Trump by a massive margin of 81 to 15%. But among the rest of the electorate of every other faith tradition (or of no religious affiliation at all), Hillary Clinton proved the overwhelming choice, 59 to 35%.

In 2020, religious distinctions still mattered in shaping political preferences, but played a measurably less significant role. This time, Evangelicals preferred Trump by a margin of 52% – not the huge 66% difference of four years earlier. Joe Biden made a concerted effort to win Born-Again voters this year and gathered nearly a quarter of them (24%), a significant improvement on the previous Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, who earned a paltry 15%.

At the same time, President Trump’s close identification with Evangelicals during his time in office didn’t stop him from making major inroads among the 15% of voters who say they have “no religion” at all — scoring 35% of that voting bloc, compared to the 30% he won four years earlier.

What such numbers show is that a Democrat like Biden can make himself more competitive within the devout Christian community than did Hillary in her misbegotten campaign of 2016, and President Trump, after a full term in office, could still score a higher percentage of the growing segment of the population that’s not attached to any faith.

This news doesn’t suggest a long-term, over all advantage for either party, or for any candidate. But it does indicate that religion isn’t as divisive or decisive a political factor as seemed to be in 2016, and desperate alarms about a looming, irrepressible religious war look more and more exaggerated and overblown.

Michael Medved on AM 770 KTTH
  • listen to michael medvedTune in to AM 770 KTTH weekdays at 12pm for The Michael Medved Show.

Michael Medved

Gaza attacks...

Michael Medved

Medved: The sad, ‘crazy’ tale of a Gaza water park, and Hamas’ war against fun

After barely three months of operation in 2010, the dream of a fanciful facility to attract tourists and delight locals lay in ruins.

6 months ago

2024 presidential debate...

Michael Medved

Medved: Will 2024 be the year of crucial political debates on TV?

It’s not difficult to imagine either Biden or Trump uttering some inaccurate or incoherent combinations of words that could undercut any momentum.

6 months ago

medved populism...

Michael Medved

Medved: GOP heading to irrelevance as party fails to embrace demographic changes

The spreading speculation about a new civil war isn't based on regionalism this time, but on distinctions in education and identity.

7 months ago

biden...

Michael Medved

Medved: How Biden learned money misdeeds can hurt most of all

The doomed example of "Tricky Dick" demonstrates the way that financial wrongdoing and personal enrichment can upset the public more than sex scandals.

7 months ago

Trump...

Michael Medved

Picking the right running mate could powerfully boost Trump’s prospects

It’s impossible to forecast who Donald Trump will pick as his running mate for the upcoming election of 2024, but it’s safe to say who he won’t select.

8 months ago

trump campaign...

Michael Medved

Medved: Can a new Trump victimhood campaign win back the White House?

Facing more than a half-dozen hostile legal proceedings before next year’s presidential election, can Donald Trump mount an effective campaign?

8 months ago

Election numbers make ‘faith based civil war’ less likely than before