DAVE ROSS

Are you ready for 2020?

Oct 10, 2013, 5:41 AM | Updated: 10:25 am

There is a mathematical formula created by a professor at the University of Connecticut which appears to be predicting a huge social shift – and which may explain why we’re in the shutdown and debt ceiling crisis.

Professor Peter Turchin has spent years developing a model that uses numbers to explain historical cycles – like the fall of the Roman Empire, the Rise of Communism.

He measures things like income inequality, the minimum wage, and health – which he measures by life expectancy and the average height of the population.

And the bottom line is – the wider the gap between rich and poor, the unhappier the general population is, and the closer people get to revolution.

We are, right now, climbing that inequality curve and all the signs are there: low taxes on the rich and low wages for workers.

And there’s another warning sign: a rising number of wealthy, educated elites competing for a fixed number of high political offices. The stiffer the competition, the more ruthless they become.

Professor Turchin’s formula predicts that the income gap finally reaches a breaking point where violence – or the threat of violence – finally brings the pitchforks to the gates of the upper classes and they get scared enough to raise their own taxes, embrace unions and redistribute wealth, which mollifies the masses.

Professor Peter Turchin. He is quick to say that this is not some prophecy. It’s mathematics.

“You can’t have two great divisions, economic and social divisions.”

According to him, the numbers say that unless something changes to reduce inequality, the leading indicators show political instability in America will peak in the year 2020. Which tells me that Congress should reach agreement promptly at midnight, December 31, 2019.

Related:

Boehner offering Obama short-term debt extension

Dave's Commentary

Dave Ross on KIRO Newsradio 97.3 FM
  • listen to dave rossTune in to KIRO Newsradio weekdays at 5am for Dave Ross on Seattle's Morning News.

Dave Ross

kamala harris...

KIRO Newsradio staff

From the audience: Kamala Harris needs to lead next generation of Democrats

Joe Biden merely needs to hand over the reins of power to his second in command, Vice President Kamala Harris, and sooner rather than later.

3 days ago

biden...

KIRO Newsradio staff

From the audience: How my father’s age makes me scared for Joe Biden

A KIRO Newsradio listener shared his views: As I watch my dad, sometimes what I see in me – I feel it's time for Joe Biden to "let it go."

4 days ago

Image: A driver used a fake "dummy" passenger so he could drive in the HOV lane on I-405 in June 20...

Dave Ross

Dave Ross dedicates one of his hits to the commuter caught with a dummy

It happened again last month: A commuter was caught in the carpool lane with a very lifelike dummy. Although, it did not fool the police.

7 days ago

biden trump presidential debate...

Dave Ross

Ross: Now I get my say on Biden, Trump during the presidential debate

The real catastrophe was that Biden’s terrible performance seems to have caused everyone to forget this little exchange with Trump during the debate.

12 days ago

ten commandments louisiana...

Dave Ross

Ross: As Louisiana requires the Ten Commandments in classrooms, don’t limit anti-sin campaigns to schools

The State of Louisiana has passed a law requiring the Ten Commandments to be posted in every school in the state.

19 days ago

supreme court pro-life...

Dave Ross

Ross: Supreme Court rules against pro-life challenge, so what’s next for the Christian Nationalists?

The Supreme Court last week unanimously turned down the pro-life challenge to the FDA’s decision to make Mifepristone widely available.

26 days ago

Are you ready for 2020?