The Mega Millions jackpot has soared to $1.25 billion. Here’s how hard it is to win
Aug 2, 2023, 7:13 AM
(AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)
NEW YORK (AP) — There’s no shaking it. Your chances of winning the lottery are extremely slim.
After no big winner Tuesday night, the Mega Millions jackpot climbed to an estimated $1.25 billion. If someone wins it all on Friday, when the next Mega Millions drawing takes place, the prize would one of the largest in U.S. lottery history.
But don’t plan on entering a new tax bracket anytime soon. The odds of winning a Mega Millions jackpot — no matter the size — stand at about 1 in 302.6 million. And chances of taking home a top prize for Powerball, which had an estimated jackpot of $95 million Wednesday, are near 1 in 292.2 million.
Because of the almost impossible chance of winning big, experts stress that you shouldn’t spend all your money on lottery tickets. If you choose to play, it’s important to be mindful of what you can afford — and maybe consider other places to put your money, even if it’s just a few dollars at a time.
Lottery tickets are “definitely not good investments,” Matthew Kovach, an assistant professor in Virginia Tech’s economics department told The Associated Press last month. “They’re not even investments … there’s an expectation you will always lose money.”
Here are some things to know about the odds of winning the lottery.
There’s a long list of rare events that are more likely than winning the Mega Millions or Powerball jackpot.
A common comparison is the odds of getting struck by lightning once in your lifetime, which stand at about one in 15,300. Even if you bought a lottery ticket for every drawing over 80 years — two times a week for Mega Millions and three times a week for Powerball — you would still be far less likely to win than to be struck by lightning one time in your life, Syracuse University mathematics professor Steven Diaz said.
“A slightly darker example,” Kovach added, is comparing the odds of winning the lottery to getting into a fatal car accident on the way to a store. “Imagine you have to drive half a mile to buy your lottery ticket, so you have a 1 mile round-trip. It’s about 4 times as likely that you die in a car accident on the trip to buy your ticket than you are to win,” he said.
Of course, both Mega Millions and Powerball offer a handful of tiers below the top jackpots — with the lowest prizes starting at $2 and $4, respectfully. For both games, the odds of winning any prize stand at about 1 in 24.
Yes. Winning the lottery has become harder in recent years, causing jackpots to grow bigger and bigger — and that’s by design.
Such big jackpots comes down to math and more difficult odds. In 2015, the Powerball lottery lengthened the odds of winning from 1 in 175.2 million to 1 in 292.2 million. Mega Millions followed two years later, lengthening the odds of winning the top prize from 1 in 258.9 million to 1 in 302.6 million. The largest lottery jackpots in the U.S. have come since those changes were made.
When someone wins a lottery jackpot in games like Powerball or Mega Millions they have two options: an annuity that is distributed over 29 years or a (significantly smaller) cash payout.
The estimated $1.25 billion jackpot seen for Mega Millions’ Friday drawing, for example, is the annuity option — and the cash value for this prize is nearly half that, standing at $625.3 million. Most jackpot winners opt for the cash.
Federal and state taxes will also lower the money you take home, with deductions depending on where you live.
Because winning is so rare, experts maintain that lottery tickets are horrible investments — but note that every person’s reason for playing the lottery is different.
Some people might buy a $2 lottery ticket as a form of entertainment and find satisfaction in “the excitement of thinking you might win,” Diaz said. Meanwhile, others may enter the lottery out of feelings of desperation or financial struggle — with experts pointing to consequences that have disproportionately impacted low-income communities.
The lottery has historically acted as a regressive tax on the poor, meaning the people that can least afford to lose their money buy the most tickets, Lia Nower, a professor and the director of the Center for Gambling Studies at Rutgers University, previously told The AP.
She said her “concern with lottery is really more people who are buying it every day or two or three times a week” as opposed to those who purchase one ticket as the jackpot nears $1 billion.
A $2 ticket may not seem like much — but it can add up for those who are regularly entering the lottery over time. Alternative spending options could include opening an investment account that allows you to invest in small amounts or buying partial stock, Kovach said.
“In reality, it’s probably best to diversify by something like an index fund — but if you’re just starting out, I would… (suggest putting it) in the stock market or something like that,” he said. “You will actually probably see a return over time.”