Democrats trust Harris slightly more than Biden on climate change, AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON (AP) — As the Democratic National Convention approaches, a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that Democrats have slightly higher trust in Vice President Kamala Harris’ ability to address the issue of climate change than President Joe Biden.

The survey found that 85% of Democrats have “a lot” or “some” trust in Harris to address climate change, while about three-quarters say the same about Biden. That’s more true of Democrats under 45: about three-quarters of this group say they have “a lot” or “some” trust in Harris to handle climate issues, compared to about 6 in 10 who say that about Biden. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to trust either Biden or Harris.

The finding is an early indication that Democrats may be making distinct evaluations of Harris when it comes to key issues, rather than seeing her as interchangeable with Biden on policy, including issues like climate change where many Democrats are anxious and want to see government action. It also reflects the broader satisfaction Democrats have with Harris as their party’s standard-bearer, and gives her an opportunity to appeal to younger Democrats, who are particularly likely to be concerned about climate change. Harris faces Republican nominee Donald Trump in the November election.

Aaron Hash, a 43-year-old Democrat and union worker, said he listened to some of Harris’ speeches after Biden stepped down and thought, “those are the right words. I’d like to see actions to follow.” He believes that the Democratic Party is “still a little bit on the back foot” compared to the Republican Party when it comes to fighting for key causes, including climate change, abortion access and gun control.

But Harris, he thinks, could change that.

“I feel hopeful that we’ll see some meaningful protections put back into place,” said Hash, who works in chemical manufacturing in Washington state. “I would like to see Democrats hopefully maintain power in the (executive branch) and then take back Congress and pass some protections that were previously protected by Chevron,” referring to the Supreme Court’s recent decision that reduced the power of agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency.

The problem of climate change is broadly recognized by Democrats. The AP-NORC poll found that 9 in 10 Democrats say climate change is happening, and most say the primary cause is human activities. About 7 in 10 Democrats say they have become more concerned about climate change over the past year. And they want to see government action on the issue: About 8 in 10 Democrats say the federal government is doing too little to reduce climate change, compared to about 6 in 10 independents and about 3 in 10 Republicans.

Younger Democrats are especially likely to feel the emotional weight of climate change. About 6 in 10 Democrats under 45 say “anxious” describes their emotions extremely or very well when they contemplate climate change, compared to about one-third of older Democrats. Younger Democrats are also less likely to say they are feeling motivated or hopeful about climate change. About 7 in 10 younger Democrats say “hopeful” describes their emotions as either “not very” or “not at all” well, compared to 45% of older Democrats.

Alex Campbell, a 29-year-old Democrat in Philadelphia, said there is “a lot of existential dread” among Millennials and Gen Z about what the world will look like in 50 years. Campbell gives Biden credit for passing the Inflation Reduction Act, and he thinks Harris would expand on those efforts. He hopes that by having a younger Democrat at the top of the ticket, she might care more about the importance of addressing climate change immediately.

But Campbell is pessimistic that, even if elected, Harris could make significant progress on climate change without Democratic control of Congress. Like other Democrats, Campbell worries about the role of the Supreme Court in further eroding environmental protections.

“I would probably have more hope with Harris,” Campbell said. “Because she is younger, I think she will be more aggressive in her policy proposals. But at the end of the day, if there’s no House and Senate that are going to pass these bills, it doesn’t really matter.”

About half of Americans say the outcome of the presidential election in November will be extremely or very important for the issue of climate change — and the issue of climate change is especially resonant for Democrats. About three-quarters of Democrats say the result of the 2024 election will matter for climate change, compared to 44% of independents and about 2 in 10 Republicans. Older Democrats are slightly more likely than younger ones to say this election is extremely or very important for climate change.

Nikolas Ostergard, a 21-year-old construction worker in Utah, said he thinks Harris is a stronger communicator than Biden is, and he believes that will allow her to make “an even better impact” on issues that matter to Democrats, including climate change. As a Democrat who will participate in his first presidential election in November, Ostergard is still waiting to hear Harris articulate her own environmental policy plans. He is hopeful that she “will listen more” to the public than Biden did.

“At first, I thought it wasn’t going to be much better with (Harris) because she was Biden’s vice president. But, it does seem like she is taking different approaches, so my hope has gone up,” Ostergard said. “My hope for Harris’ policies is better than it was for Biden’s. And definitely way over my hope for Trump’s policies.”

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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.