Listen to business owners and voters in Erie, Pennsylvania. They could help decide the White House.

ERIE, Pa. (AP) — It wasn’t much when he bought it, but Michael Hooks has made the old garage his own haven. And the city of Erie knows it. Half a dozen cars honk as they pass by one October afternoon, the people hanging out of car windows to wave hello at him.

About a dozen cars await servicing in the shop as a dog Hooks adopted the day before barks in its new cage. Exercise equipment, motorcycles and power tools abut the kitchen on the side of the renovated building where his wife cooks a meal. At 6 feet, 2 inches, and with a sturdy build, Hooks has a graying beard and a head of curls he says could be laced with snow flurries by this time of year.

“I’ve got to be one of the only Black businesses on this street,” he says, noting that his repair shop stands on Peach Street, one of the city’s main traffic arteries. He appreciates the greetings from passersby. But he says many people who know him from the neighborhoods where he grew up will never step foot in the shop. Almost all his customers are white.

Hooks, 58, is a member of a coveted demographic in this year’s election — a Black man and a business owner in a swing state. Both presidential campaigns have targeted Black entrepreneurs with their messaging, offering a range of economic policies and legislation that each side says will boost the careers and lives of African Americans.

How Erie business owners and voters such as Hooks view each candidate’s economic vision could determine control of the White House. Erie County has gone for the candidate who won Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992. Both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have visited the city of 94,000 in recent weeks.

“Erie is a pivot point,” said Rhonda Matthews, co-founder of Erie Black Wall Street, a business group that supports local Black entrepreneurs. From population rates to business startups, the future of Erie’s economy and politics have shown where the country may be heading. “I think if you want to know about what’s happening economically writ large in the country, you can look and see what’s happening in Erie.”

Concerns about ‘a lack of predictability’

Harris has rolled out a series of economic proposals meant to tackle affordability and boost small businesses. Trump has stressed his promise of sweeping tariffs, new corporate tax cuts and an unprecedented crackdown on illegal and legal immigration to the country.

Local leaders are weighing the impact of each agenda on their plans to renew the Rust Belt.

“A lack of predictability would be the worst possible thing,” said Drew Whiting, CEO of the Erie Downtown Development Corporation, which is directing more than $100 million in private investment to the downtown area.

Whiting praised federal policies such as Qualified Opportunity Zones, which are meant to spur economic development in low-income communities and were created as part of the Trump administration’s 2017 tax overhaul, as well as the investments in Erie enabled by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law spearheaded by Democratic President Joe Biden.

But Whiting added that “broad brush” policies such as Trump’s proposed 20% tariffs on all foreign goods threatened to be “an inflation bomb that would crush small businesses” like those he works with. Whiting viewed Harris’ proposed investments for small businesses to be a potential boon. A no tax on tips policy, which both Harris and Trump favor, would be a welcome innovation for workers, he said.

The Harris campaign has zeroed in on affordability as a key concern of voters amid rising inflation. Her proposals to punish companies that gouge prices and her promises to expand support for health care and child care are issues where the campaign believes they can lower costs for working families. Trump, by contrast, would lower the corporate tax rate to 15%, extend his tax cuts and further cut other individual and family taxes, including by eliminating taxes on Social Security.

Most mainstream economists agree that Trump’s proposals would worsen inflation.

Local business owners who spoke with The Associated Press expressed cautious optimism about Harris’ proposals to support small businesses, though most were largely skeptical about the impact that federal policy could have on their lives.

“There’s just so many factors, things to consider from right here and global factors,” said Gus Paliouras, owner of New York Lunch, a local diner. Paliouras’ family immigrated to the United States from Greece and bought the diner in 1970, when it was one of dozens of bustling businesses on top of a post office, school and church. Now Paliouras’ diner is the only storefront left on the block.

“I try to keep it like Geneva in here,” he said, referring to the city in famously neutral Switzerland. “In this town, we could have Trump, Kamala and Kennedy supporters sitting right next to each other at the bar.” Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in the race until August, when he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.

One business owner sees his city’s divisions

Hooks considers himself a survivor.

Born and raised in Erie, Hooks grew up in poverty and with few options, support or direction for his life. At 23, he was sentenced to 30 years for dealing marijuana. He served eight years in prison, an experience he described as “the best thing that ever happened to me.”

Prison was the first place Hooks was exposed to scripture — the Bible and Quran — as well as stories about travel, business and history.

While he has transformed his circumstances and overcome “trials and tribulations that made me a better man,” he finds the distinctions that some draw between poor, working and middle-class people to be meaningless.

“It’s because we have people in this country that want to be better than someone else,” he said in a recent interview. “You drive a Toyota Camry, I drive the Lexus. It’s the same … car. It’s just a different name, but it’s a higher status.”

“For example, (Harris) says she wants to give us a $50,000 tax break or whatever,” he added, referring to the vice president’s proposed tax credit for new small businesses. “But that could never come into fruition with people that think they better than somebody, but you live next door to me, and your sign says Trump.”

In addition to his car care company, Hooks now runs a food catering business. On the weekends he goes back to the neighborhoods where he grew up to feed, clothe and cut hair for kids for free. His charity efforts are focused on making sure children never have the experiences he once faced.

Hooks is skeptical of the ability of politicians to change fundamental problems facing everyday Americans, but says he’ll be voting for Harris.

“Trump had the opportunity to be great,” Hooks said, but called Trump’s first term a “disaster.” Hooks said he preferred “going with someone who may at least try and help the little guy.”