Many Democrats don’t think they’ll see a woman become president, AP-NORC poll finds

NEW YORK (AP) — Democrats are harboring strong feelings of stress and gloom as the new year begins. And many are questioning whether their party’s commitment to diverse candidates — especially women — may lead to further political struggles in the Donald Trump era.

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Specifically, about 4 in 10 Democrats said it’s “not very likely” or “not at all likely” that a woman will be elected to the nation’s highest office in their lifetime, according to a December AP-NORC poll. That’s compared with about one-quarter of Republicans who feel the same.

While despondency is hardly unique for a political party after a high-profile loss, that finding reflects the deep depression that has set in among Democrats about the country and their party after Trump soundly defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.

Such concerns may already be shaping the Democratic National Committee’s search for a new leader. For the first time in more than a decade, the top candidates for the job are all white men.

And looking further ahead, the party’s pessimism is influencing early conversations about the contest for the 2028 presidential nomination.

“We knew men hated women. The last election showed, for some of us, that we underestimated the extent to which some women hate other women,” said Gilda Cobb-Hunter, a Democratic state representative from South Carolina and former president of the National Black Caucus of State Legislators. “America is as racist and misogynist as it has always been.”

Democrats have nominated a woman to run against Trump in two of the past three presidential elections. In both cases, Trump won decisively, over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Harris in 2024. The Democrat who unseated Trump — Joe Biden in 2020 — was a white man.

Adding insult to injury for many Democrats was the long list of allegations brought by women against Trump. He was found liable in civil court for sexual abuse and convicted for a hush money case involving an adult film star. He was once caught on tape bragging that he could grab women’s genitals without consent because he was a celebrity.

Still, Trump narrowly carried every key swing state in November. Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than Biden’s. Trump’s support held steady among white women, with slightly more than half supporting him, similar to 2020.

Most Democrats — about 7 in 10 — believe 2025 will be a worse year for the U.S. than 2024, the AP-NORC poll found. That’s compared with about 4 in 10 U.S. adults who feel that way.

The poll also found that Democrats were less likely to be feeling “happy” or “hopeful” about 2025 for them personally. Instead, about 4 in 10 Democrats said “stressed” described their feelings extremely or very well, while roughly one-third of Democrats said this about the word “gloomy.”

Meanwhile, majorities of Republicans and conservatives said “happy” described how they feel about 2025 at least very well. A similar share said the same about “hopeful.”

“It’s so dark out there right now,” said poll respondent Rachel Wineman, a 41-year-old Democrat from Murrieta, California. “My family and I are circling the wagons, trying to keep our heads down and survive.”

There are early signs that this loss has triggered questions about a core commitment of the modern-day Democratic Party to support minority groups, including women, while pushing diverse candidates into positions of power.

Some Democratic leaders fear that Trump’s strong success with working-class white voters — and his modest gains among Blacks and Latinos in the election — may signal a political realignment that could transform the political landscape for years to come unless the party changes its approach.

The vote for a DNC chair offers the first clue as to the direction of the party during the second Trump administration. The election is three weeks away, and the leading candidates are Ben Wikler, the Wisconsin state chair, and Ken Martin, the Minnesota state party chair.

Either would be the first white man in the job since Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine left the position in 2011.

Martin and Wikler are considered the strong front-runners in a field of eight candidates who qualified for a DNC candidate forum Saturday, the first of four such gatherings before the Feb. 1 election at the committee’s winter meeting in suburban Washington.

Two candidates are women: former presidential contender Marianne Williamson and Quintessa Hathaway, a former congressional candidate, educator and civil rights activist.

The outgoing chair, Jaime Harrison, who is Black, said in a statement that the committee will be well-positioned to compete in future elections and push back against Trump’s policies.

“Democrats stand ready to hold him accountable,” Harrison said. “We will continue to invest in all 50 states to build power from the local level on up and elect Democrats across the country.”

Meanwhile, some rank-and-file Democrats in early primary states are openly wondering whether the party’s next White House nominee would be at a disadvantage if that person is not a straight white man who is Christian. Barack Obama is the only Black man to have been elected president in American history.

New Hampshire Democrat Thalia Flores said Harris’ loss has made her rethink the political viability of rising stars such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is gay, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish, or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the most prominent woman expected to weigh a 2028 presidential bid.

“Kamala’s loss can impact those kind of candidates, too, because anybody who’s not a mainstream white guy is maybe not a good bet,” Flores said, indicating that such concerns would not affect her personal vote in the next presidential primary. “It’s a shame that we’re even having the conversation.”

She added, “The American people can’t seem to support a woman.”

Overall, the AP-NORC poll found that about one-quarter of Americans said it was extremely or very likely that the country will elect a woman as president in their lifetime. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults thought it was somewhat likely and about one-third said it was not very likely or not at all likely.

Such feelings are consistent among Americans regardless of age or gender, although Black Americans are more likely than white or Hispanic adults to say it’s “not very likely” or “not likely at all” to happen in their lifetime.

Sarah Burnett, a 49-year-old small business owner from Edgerton, Missouri, said she’s feeling “dread” about the direction of the country in 2025.

“All of us are not looking forward to the next four years,” she said.

As for whether she thinks the U.S. will elect a woman in her lifetime, she said she’s trying to be optimistic.

“Yes, there’s going to be sexism involved, misogyny, the patriarchy and all of that. … But we did have a Black president,” Burnett said. “So yes, I would expect a woman to be elected. Do I have high expectations? No.”

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Sanders reported from Washington.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,251 adults was conducted Dec. 5-9, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.