Upcoming El Nino to be among the strongest in history
Aug 13, 2015, 1:43 PM | Updated: Aug 14, 2015, 11:27 am
Get ready. It’s coming.
El Nino.
The climate phenomenon, which throws weather conditions out of whack, is expected to hit the northern hemisphere in the fall and is likely to be among the strongest El Ninos in recent memory.
As for what to expect in Washington, Deputy Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Mike Halpert said it can go one of three ways: very wet, very dry, or a mix of both. In any case, it will be extreme.
Related: Is it OK to water shame your neighbors during Seattle’s drought?
Halpert said the forecast “continues the expectation of a strong El Nino during the late fall and winter with El Nino lasting until the spring. What’s new this month is that we’re predicting that this El Nino could be among the strongest El Ninos on record dating back to 1950.”
NOAA released the updated El Nino forecast on Thursday. It outlines an El Nino that will take its place along side the top three others on record — in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98, with the latter being the most extreme. The current forecast favors above-average temperatures in the Northwest from Alaska to Washington, and would rank this upcoming El Nino just behind the most severe 1997-98 event.
What to expect in the Northwest
Halpert notes that weather predictions can be difficult, especially when looking months into the future. But current forecasts favor a scenario with below average rainfall; a situation that will not help Washington’s current drought conditions.
“Certainly a dry winter would exacerbate things, for sure,” Halpert said.
“The current outlooks along parts of the Pacific Northwest favor below average precipitation and that’s something we see often with stronger El Ninos, in terms of the jet [stream] shifting south of normal,” he said. “The Pacific Northwest could be dry. We’ve seen a couple cases where it was actually wet up and down the coast, but those are more small-scale type of events.”
A drier, warmer winter will have consequences for 2016, not only for drought conditions.
“If we get the warmer than average temperatures, which is typical for El Nino in the winter season, the average snow level in the mountains is going to be at a higher elevation,” NOAA Warning Coordinator Meteorologist Ted Buehner told KIRO Radio. “As a result you tend to have less mountain snow pack, and after this past weather season with such a meager snow pack, that can be a problem for our water supply.”
“And what does that mean for wildfire season in 2016?” he said. “We’ve seen what an active wildfire season it has been for 2015, as well as for what it has been for our stream flows.”
But a dry El Nino for the Northwest isn’t the only possibility. Halpert notes that weather prediction is complex and there are always surprises.
Another scenario could mean the Northwest will see more rain, should the atmosphere collect enough moisture and energy. That was the situation in 1997-98, when massive flooding and winds pummeled the West Coast. That El Nino was the second warmest on record and the seventh wettest since 1895, according to NOAA.
“The jet stream across the Pacific could be so energized that it becomes wet, like in 97-98 it became wet coast to coast. There were very few areas that didn’t have a wet winter that year,” Halpert said.
A third scenario might keep the moisture on the west side of the state and keep the east side dry.
In any case, severity is the only certain outcome. That is because some El Ninos rise to the title of “super El Ninos” bringing more powerful weather patterns. The upcoming season is expected to be such an event.
