UW modeler: Vaccine will provide relief, but still ‘a few rough months ahead’
Dec 4, 2020, 5:04 PM | Updated: Dec 7, 2020, 6:48 am
Medical workers train at a COVID vaccination clinic. (Photo by Steve Parsons - WPA Pool/Getty Images)
(Photo by Steve Parsons - WPA Pool/Getty Images)
With a COVID-19 vaccine expected to arrive in Washington sometime in the next few weeks, modelers at UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) are issuing a warning to keep expectations in check in the short-term.
Washington begins preparing for December arrival of COVID vaccine
Vaccines will likely start being distributed to frontline medical workers and first responders by the end of December, with the elderly, child-care workers, law enforcement, and other high risk groups expected to follow in the ensuing weeks and months.
With members of the public who are not in that high-risk bracket not expected to receive the vaccine until much later, the IHME is urging people to stay cognizant of COVID restrictions and continue exercising caution.
“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” IHME Director Dr. Chris Murray said in a Thursday news release.
Dr. Murray expects vaccines will begin to have an impact on reducing COVID cases and deaths beginning in April 2021, assuming it is rolled out quickly. Up until April 1, the IHME predicts that the vaccine will likely reduce the death toll from the virus by about 9,000 people, cutting the expected total from 548,000 down to 524,000.
Virologist: We need to adjust expectations for the COVID vaccine
From there, “warmer temperatures and rising vaccination rates” will continue to drive down cases and deaths in the months to follow.
In the meantime, Dr. Murray threw his support behind imposing limits on large-scale gatherings to reduce transmission.
“It’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks,” he said. “Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out.”
Assuming it gains FDA approval, Pfizer’s vaccine, said to be 95% effective, will be administered in two doses three weeks apart. A Moderna vaccine boasted a 94% effective rate, administered in two doses 28 days apart. Neither led to any serious safety concerns in the trial phase, although minor side effects — including fatigue, headaches, myalgia, and redness at the injection site — were seen in a small percentage of patients.
Pfizer tells state officials that it will have roughly 62,400 doses of its vaccine available for Washington initially, and up to 200,000 doses by the end of December, followed by regular weekly shipments starting in January 2021.
