Omicron likely to drive up King County COVID cases ‘suddenly and rapidly’ over next week
Dec 17, 2021, 8:22 AM | Updated: 11:50 am
People walking through downtown Seattle. (Getty Images)
(Getty Images)
The omicron variant of COVID-19 has continued to spread rapidly in the Puget Sound region, with modeling pointing to further increases in the near future.
Emerging omicron variant ‘does not change our approach to fighting pandemic’
Early in the week, a test of just over 200 recent positive COVID-19 samples from UW Virology found that around 13% contained the variant strain, an increase from 7% just a day earlier, and 3% the day before that. Not long after, roughly 20% of samples contained markers for the omicron variant.
Using data from omicron outbreaks in South Africa, Denmark, Germany, and the United Kingdom, Fred Hutchinson scientist Dr. Trevor Bedford believes that it likely won’t be long before omicron triggers a surge in COVID-19 cases that would far exceed what the region saw from the delta variant in August.
“If we do a very simple 10-day projection of this rate of growth we get ~2,100 daily Omicron cases in King County on Dec. 22,” Bedford tweeted on Thursday. “This is ~3.5 times the Delta peak in King County in August and this is only 1 week away.”
Statewide, the delta variant drove the largest surge in cases Washington had seen over the course of the entire pandemic, as well as the second largest surge for King County.
Moving forward, Bedford expects “case loads to climb suddenly and rapidly in a large number of well connected cities over the next week.”
I expect case loads to climb suddenly and rapidly in a large number of well connected cities over the next week. This will take many by surprise but was baked in as soon as we knew Omicron Rt. 12/12
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) December 17, 2021
That has local health officials warning King County residents to continue taking precautions as we enter into the holiday season.
“This projection quantifies the explosive spread we’ve been talking about,” King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin said on Twitter in response to Bedford’s projections. “Once again we need to do whatever we can to decrease the spread and protect our already strained healthcare system. If you can do anything to improve your (COVID-19) prevention measures and decrease risk at home, work, or community, this is the time to do it.”
Still ‘a lot we don’t know’ about omicron variant, says Washington hospital official
Duchin advises that if people do gather for the holidays, they do so with vaccinated, boosted family members and friends, with rapid testing for the day of the gathering. The prime concern at this point is the danger this surge would have to high-risk populations, and a resulting strain on the hospital system.
“Bottom line is to limit the number of people becoming ill in a short time that could overload our already stressed healthcare system, potentially compromising the care it can deliver when we need it,” Duchin noted.
