Iran has likely carried out an undeclared missile test, satellite photos analyzed by the AP show

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran has likely carried out an undeclared missile test at its Imam Khomeini Spaceport, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press showed Thursday, underlining Tehran’s effort to maintain its weapons program despite the 12-day war with Israel in June.

Iran has not formally acknowledged the test last week, carried out at a circular pad that has hosted other major launches by the country’s civilian space program. A single lawmaker in Iran’s parliament, however, claimed, without offering evidence, that Tehran tested a possible intercontinental ballistic missile.

The test and the claim raise concerns that Iran may be trying to expanding the reach of its missiles as tensions remain high ahead of United Nations sanctions, which are likely to be reimposed this weekend over Tehran’s nuclear program — as it also repairs missile sites that were struck by the Israelis.

“Israel’s successes in the 12-day war against Iran’s missile attacks reinforced for Tehran the importance of developing more ballistic missiles and qualitatively better versions of them,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The think tank has long been critical of Iran and has been sanctioned by Tehran.

“Consider this part of Tehran’s efforts to build back better, and as quickly as possible,” he added.

Scorch marks seen on the launch pad

Last Thursday, Sept. 18, Iranian social media users posted images of the sky over Semnan province, showing what appeared to be a rocket’s contrail at sunset. Iranian officials did not acknowledge what caused the contrail, nor did Iranian state media report on the incident.

Satellite photos taken prior to that by Planet Labs PBC show the circular pad at Imam Khomeini Spaceport — about 230 kilometers (145 miles) southeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran, in Semnan — painted blue ringed with red, white and green lines — the colors of the Iranian flag.

But in satellite images since Sept. 18, the pad appeared discolored, though it wasn’t fully clear until a more-detailed Planet image requested by the AP taken this Wednesday.

That image shows significant scorch marks, the pattern of which resembled scorching seen at the pad following past launches. When rockets launch, the flames from their engines pour down onto pads.

Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies missiles, said the scale of the scorching suggested Iran launched a solid-fuel missile, as burning aluminum oxide particles cause such marks.

The north-south marks suggest a blast deflector being used as well to channel the flames, he said.

The claim of an intercontinental ballistic missile

Iranian parliament member Mohsen Zanganeh, appearing on Iranian state television on Saturday, claimed that the Islamic Republic had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday. He portrayed it as a sign of Iran’s strength as it faces challenges from Israel and the West.

“We have neither abandoned (nuclear) enrichment, nor handed uranium over to the enemy, nor backed down from our missile positions,” said Zanganeh, a member of parliament’s budget committee from Iran’s Khorasan Razavi province.

“The night before last we tested one of the country’s most advanced missiles, which until now had not, so to speak, been trialed — and that test was successful,” he said.

“In other words,” he added. “I mean to say that even under these conditions we are conducting a security test of an intercontinental-range missile.”

Zanganeh did not elaborate on where he got his information, nor did he provide any evidence to support his assertion. Iranian parliament members have made exaggerated claims in the past.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles typically have ranges greater than 5,500 kilometers (3,415 miles). That would extend far beyond the range reportedly allowed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which is 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles).

The range of 2,000 kilometers encompasses much of the Middle East, including Israel and American military bases in the region. An intercontinental missile would at least put all of Europe and beyond in rage. The U.S. military’s Central Command, which oversees its Mideast operations, did not respond to a request for comment.

Questions remain over the launch

Despite the lawmaker’s claims, there are still many questions surrounding the launch — including just what Iran sent into the sky.

Iran has in the past used the pad to launch solid-fueled missiles called Zuljanah, named after a horse of Imam Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and a key figure in the Shiite faith who was massacred with his fighters at Karbala in the 7th century.

The Zuljanah can launch satellites in space. However, the fact that it uses solid fuel and is capable of reaching space has raised concerns by the U.S. government that Iran could potentially build an intercontinental ballistic missile.

“If, as is increasingly being alleged, the test was of a space-launch vehicle, it represents a desire by Tehran to potentially threaten targets outside the Middle East, like the European continent and even the American homeland,” Taleblu said.

Such missiles can deliver nuclear weapons, but Iran long has maintained its nuclear program is peaceful. U.S. intelligence agencies also assess that Iran is not actively pursuing an atomic bomb, though it had been enriching uranium to up to 60% purity — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iran also would need to miniaturize any possible nuclear bomb to put it atop a ballistic missile.

With Iran not formally acknowledging the launch and the erratic contrail that was left behind, the likelihood is that the launch may have failed. There’s also no acknowledgment by U.S. space officials of Iran putting any new satellites into space on Sept. 18.

Iran may also have used the launch to signal to the West that it will continue its missile program, despite sanctions and pressure — though without a formal confirmation, it remains unclear just what Tehran was trying to do.

“The problem is that so much happens with Iran,” Hinz said. “It’s hard to say what is coincidental and what is a pattern.”

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Associated Press writer Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.