Hiring likely stayed modest in December, capping a year of weak job growth

WASHINGTON (AP) — Hiring likely remained subdued last month as many companies have sought to avoid expanding their workforces, though the job gains may be enough to bring down the unemployment rate.

December’s jobs report, to be released Friday, is likely to show that employers added a modest 55,000 jobs, economists forecast. That figure would be below November’s 64,000 but an improvement after the economy lost jobs in October. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 4.5%, according to data provider FactSet, from a four-year high of 4.6% in November.

The figures will be closely watched on Wall Street and in Washington because they will be the first clean readings on the labor market in three months. The government didn’t issue a report in October because of the six-week government shutdown, and November’s data was distorted by the closure, which lasted until Nov. 12.

Another wrinkle: The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, mostly because federal government employment fell 162,000, reflecting a purge of federal workers earlier last year by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. That drop won’t be repeated.

Still, sluggish hiring in December would underscore a key conundrum surrounding the economy as it enters 2026: Growth has picked up to healthy levels, yet hiring has weakened noticeably and the unemployment rate has increased in the last four jobs reports.

Most economists expect hiring will accelerate this year as growth remains solid. Yet they acknowledge there are other possibilities: Weak job gains could drag down future growth. Or the economy could keep expanding at a healthy clip, while automation and the spread of artificial intelligence reduces the need for more jobs.

Economists do expect Friday’s jobs report to have some good news, driven partly by a rebound from the government shutdown, which likely drove a higher unemployment rate in November. Still, should the rate remain at 4.6% or even tick higher, that would be a cause for concern.

“I’m really looking for a lot of that weakness to reverse in December,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, “and if it doesn’t, I am going to start getting much iffier about the labor market.”

Either way, December’s report will cap a year of sluggish hiring, particularly after “liberation day” in April when President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries, though many were later delayed or softened.

The economy generated an average of 111,000 jobs a month in the first three months of the year. But that pace dropped to just 11,000 in the three months ended in August, before rebounding slightly to 22,000 in November.

Even those figures are likely to be revised lower in February, when the government completes an annual benchmarking of the jobs figures to an actual count of jobs derived from companies’ unemployment insurance filings. A preliminary estimate of that revision showed it could reduce total jobs as of March 2025 by 911,000.

And last month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the government could still be overstating job gains by about 60,000 a month because of shortcomings in how it accounts for new companies as well as those that have gone out of business. The Labor Department is expected to update those methods in its report next month.

Last November, the U.S. economy had just 770,000 more jobs than 12 months earlier, down from 1.9 million in the 12 months ending in November 2024 and the smallest yearly gain since early 2021. The benchmark revisions next month will likely reduce that figure even further.

With hiring so weak, the Federal Reserve cut its key short-term interest rate three times late last year, in an effort to boost borrowing, spending, and hiring. Yet Powell signaled that the central bank may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months as it evaluates how the economy evolves.

Should December’s jobs report come in surprisingly weak, it could strengthen case for a rate reduction at the Fed’s next meeting Jan. 27-28.

Even with such sluggish job gains, the economy has continued to expand, with growth reaching a 4.3% annual rate in last year’s July-September quarter, the best in two years. Strong consumer spending helped drive the gain. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts that growth could slow to a still-solid 2.7% in the final three months of last year.

Many economists are optimistic that growth will pick up in 2026, in part because Trump’s tax legislation, approved last summer, should lead to outsize tax refunds this spring. If growth does accelerate, it’s possible hiring may as well. At the same time, there are signs that companies are using technology and other tools to make their workers more efficient, which can spur growth without requiring more jobs.

At the same time, inflation remains elevated, eroding the value of Americans’ paychecks. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in November compared with a year ago, little changed from the beginning of the year and above the Fed’s 2% target.