More Americans identify as political independents, a new poll shows

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are increasingly rejecting the two major political parties, according to new polling.

Just under half, 45%, of U.S. adults now identify as independents, a new Gallup survey found. That’s a substantial shift from 20 years ago, when closer to one-third of Americans said they didn’t identify with the Democrats or Republicans.

This group appears, increasingly, to be driven by their unhappiness with the party in power, according to Gallup’s analysis. That’s a dynamic that could be good for Democrats in this year’s midterm elections, but doesn’t promise lasting loyalty. Independents have gravitated toward the Democrats over the past year when asked which party they lean toward, Gallup found, but attitudes toward the party haven’t gotten warmer. That suggests that the Democrats’ gains are probably more related to independents’ increasingly sour views of President Donald Trump.

Younger people, in particular, are rejecting the parties at much higher rates than older generations. More than half of Generation Z and Millennials identify as political independents, while a majority of older generations side with a party. That’s different from the past, when more young adults identified with the Democrats or the Republicans. And it’s part of the reason why frequent, dramatic swings in political power may become increasingly normal.

Democrats regain the edge with political independents

Independents have long been the largest political group in the U.S., and their numbers have increased over the last 15 years. But often, they’re more inclined to side with one of the parties over the other.

This year, the Democratic Party gained the partisanship edge when independents were asked whether they lean more toward the Democratic or Republican Party. Nearly half, 47%, of U.S. adults now identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 42% are Republicans or lean Republican. This is an indication of how Americans are feeling about their political affiliations, and it may not be reflected in voters’ actual registration.

This shifted the 3-year party affiliation advantage that the Republican Party held while President Joe Biden was in office, reverting to where the Democrats stood during Trump’s first term.

While that’s certainly not bad news for Democrats as they look to regain one or both houses of Congress in November, it’s likelier that they’re benefiting from independents’ unhappiness with Trump, rather than building lasting goodwill for themselves. Trump’s approval among independents has fallen steadily over the year, while Democrats’ favorability remains historically low.

Young people drive independents’ strength

Younger Americans are driving the recent rise in U.S. adults identifying as independents.

The Gallup polling found majorities of Gen Z and Millennial adults – who were born between 1981 and 2007 – now identify as independents. Independent identity is softer in older generations, where only about 4 in 10 in Gen X currently call themselves independents and roughly 3 in 10 older adults do.

Young adults today are more likely than previous generations to identify outside of the Democratic and Republican Party. While 56% of Gen Z adults call themselves independents, that’s higher than in 2012, when 47% of Millennials said they were independents, and 1992, when 40% of Gen X adults identified that way, according to the Gallup analysis.

That means that this trend isn’t likely to shift, unless the parties are able to change the way younger people see them.

Independent Americans are increasingly the moderates

Americans who identify as moderates increasingly don’t see themselves in either party, Gallup’s polling shows.

More independents have described their political views as “moderate” over the last decade, while Democrats and Republicans have grown less likely to identity as moderates.

About half of independents, 47%, called themselves moderates in 2025, compared to about 3 in 10 Democrats and about 2 in 10 Republicans.

At the same time, Democrats and Republicans have become increasingly polarized in their ideology. About 6 in 10 Democrats now call themselves liberal, while the share that consider themselves moderate is among the lowest it’s ever been. Among Republicans, 77% consider themselves conservative, and moderate identity is also at a low point.

That creates another challenge for the parties to contend with, since appeals to the center to win the growing pool of independents could risk alienating the most committed people in their base.