Exiled crown prince’s plan for Iran is mostly aimed at Trump, experts say

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — No pursuit of nuclear weapons. Confronting drug trafficking. An immediate recognition of the state of Israel. Exporting copious amounts of oil and gas.

Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi laid out his aspirations Thursday for Iran if its theocracy is toppled — and experts say they sound exactly like what U.S. President Donald Trump wants to hear.

That plan likely is aimed at trying to secure support to lead Iran if the nationwide protests succeed in ousting the Islamic Republic. Activists describe a bloody crackdown by security forces that has killed 2,637 people and broadly smothered the demonstrations.

But Trump has yet to fully embrace Pahlavi.

“He’s really struggling to win Trump’s approval, to give the impression he has that strong support, but it doesn’t seem to be working,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington think tank and author of several books on Iran. Many of his goals also dovetail with the wishes of hard-line Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has forged a close partnership with Trump.

“He’s trying to get support from the U.S. government because he’s not trying to do a revolution from below, but he’s trying to get installed from above. That’s a reflection of the lack of confidence and shows he has a real lack of a base of support,” Parsi said.

Pahlavi’s father, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ushered in the current Islamic Republic. Pahlavi urged protesters onto the streets last week as Iranian authorities shut down the internet and launched their crackdown.

“The fall of the Islamic Republic and the establishment of a secular, democratic government in Iran will not only restore dignity to my people, it will benefit the region and the world,” Pahlavi posted in a video on X, laying out his plan. Pahlavi did not immediately respond to a request seeking further comment on his plans.

Seeking Trump’s approval

“He’s trying to tick the boxes of everything that can correlate with Trump,” said Danny Citrinowicz, who once headed research on Iran in one of the Israeli military’s intelligence branches and is now a senior researcher with the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli defense think tank.

Around the world, many protesters held up his photo. But how much support Pahlavi has among the public inside Iran is unclear, although he does seem to have a “small modicum,” Parsi said.

People are yelling “Pahlavi” in the streets of Iran, not because they actually want him, but because there’s no other name to yell, Citrinowicz said. Nearly 50 years of theocratic rule has left little opportunity for major opposition figures to coalesce, leaving Pahlavi as one of only a few recognizable faces. Pahlavi himself has done little to build or strengthen an opposition movement during more than four decades in exile, Parsi added.

“They don’t want to replace one dictatorship with another, and he’s not a unifying figure,” Citrinowicz said. “He has been trying to build himself as the role of the successor, but it’s not there.”

Trump’s reservations over a ‘nice guy’

Trump also expressed reservations about Pahlavi, frequently calling him a “nice guy” in interviews but raising doubts about whether Iranians would accept his leadership.

“He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country,” Trump told Reuters on Wednesday. “And we really aren’t up to that point yet.”

The president added: “I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.” Pahlavi released his video on X soon after the interview.

Diehard Iranian monarchists in exile have long touted dreams of the Pahlavi dynasty returning to power. But Pahlavi has been hampered in gaining wider appeal by factors including bitter memories of his father’s rule and suppression of any opposition by the feared SAVAK intelligence agency. There’s also the perception that he and his family, who have lived abroad for nearly 50 years, are out of touch with their homeland.

Iranian state media, which for years mocked Pahlavi as corrupt, has blamed “monarchist terrorist elements” for the recent demonstrations.

On Thursday, the Student News Network, a media agency that is believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard’s Basij force, broadcast interviews with people on the street that were dismissive of Pahlavi.

“He’s making a big mistake. Tell him to get lost,” one person said. Another yelled, “Death to the shah!”

An appeal that’s seen for a foreign audience

Pahlavi’s video on his post-theocracy plan was made in English, not Farsi, because he’s trying to appeal to Trump, rather than the Iranian people, Citrinowicz said.

Pahlavi’s only hope of gaining power is with Washington’s support, including U.S. military intervention, he added. Trump has appeared to walk back threats of U.S. military intervention in recent days but hasn’t ruled it out.

Pahlavi has long cultivated a relationship with Israel, which had a close relationship with Iran before the Islamic Revolution. Pahlavi visited Israel in 2023 and met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime hawk on Iran whose criticism of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal fueled Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the accord.

Israeli media on Thursday made passing reference to Pahlavi’s promise to renew Israeli-Iranian relations but focused more on the immediate threat of Israel getting dragged into a possible war if the U.S. attacked.

Both Iran and Israel are still recovering from the 12-day war last summer. Israeli strikes on Iran killed 1,190 people and wounded another 4,475, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, while Iran’s missile barrages killed nearly 30 people in Israel and wounded 1,000.

The current demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions levied in part over its nuclear program.

The death toll of 2,637 since last month — also from the Human Rights Activists News Agency — exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades. The agency has been accurate through multiple years of demonstrations, relying on a network of activists inside Iran that confirms all reported fatalities.

With communications greatly limited in Iran, The Associated Press has been unable to independently confirm the group’s toll. The theocratic government of Iran has not provided overall casualty figures for the demonstrations.

___

Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed.