Crowded Democratic field in California governor’s race might provide a rare opening for the GOP

LOS ANGELES (AP) — How many Democrats are too many?

In the race for California governor, so many Democratic candidates have crowded into the contest that party insiders have become fearful of a historic calamity in the making. It’s become mathematically possible that Democrats divide their vote so much that two Republicans advance from the June primary to the general election.

“It’s the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could this happen?” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell said.

The uncertainty in the outcome stems from the state’s unpredictable “ top two ” primary system. All candidates appear on a single ballot but only the two top finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of party. It’s the first time since voters approved that system more than a decade ago that there’s been a governor’s race with no clear frontrunner, helping feed a “Why not me?” mentality among the large number of Democrats flooding into the contest.

“There’s a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November’s ballot,” the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, warned in a recent fundraising pitch.

A political shock in the making?

Though it remains a distant longshot, it’s hard to understate the political shock that would come with two Republicans perched atop California’s midterm ballot. The state is known as a Democratic fortress, and a GOP candidate hasn’t won a statewide election in two decades. It would also have implications for races down the ballot, including congressional battlegrounds that could determine control of the U.S. House.

Why so many candidates? The governor’s chair in California has always had magnetic allure — it’s one of the most powerful political platforms in the nation. The state — by itself — is ranked as the world’s fourth-largest economy. It’s the nation’s top agricultural producer and is home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The state budget tallies nearly $350 billion in annual spending, an amount roughly equal to the market value of Netflix.

Candidates lured by a wide-open election

With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from seeking a third term, it’s the most wide-open contest for governor in a generation.

Dozens of people have filed paperwork to run, from a college student to a billionaire. Among them are at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising machinery to seriously compete.

That list includes current and former members of Congress — Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; former state controller Betty Yee and schools superintendent Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, a former majority leader in the state Assembly.

With the Democrats occupying much of the same ideological turf, candidates are highlighting other markers to break away from the pack. Swalwell, for example, has campaigned partly on his role as a House manager of Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan, the newest candidate in the race, has been a frequent critic of Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer is among Mahan’s top critics, saying he’s too aligned with tech interests.

Some Democrats hope to see the field narrow on its own.

It would be best for “the lower-tiered people to drop out,” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. “You are looking at people who are never going to break through.”

Uncertainty comes with ‘top two’ primary

Mitchell said he used available polling data to run a series of simulations to assess the likelihood of a twin GOP breakthrough and found it was possible, though with long odds. The leading GOP candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump.

California is one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide, Democrats have held every statewide office since 2010 and Republicans have been reduced to powerless spectators in the Legislature.

In a primary, the Democrats are expected to divide roughly 60% of the vote, Republicans, 40%. The math gets challenging for Democrats if the party has a long list of credible candidates in the race, cutting up their share of the vote.

“It’s a small probability but one that would be a massive, massive deal,” Mitchell said. The quandary for Democrats: “There isn’t somebody who is going to come in and tell these lower-tier candidates they can’t run.”

Republicans, for their part, are also concerned about the tricky math. Hilton has been calling on Bianco to drop out in hopes that Republicans would consolidate to push one candidate into the November election.

“We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent debate.

Democrats in search of a national leader

The race is displaying some similarity with the rapidly developing 2028 Democratic contest for president, where a large field is assembling to contend for an open seat. Democrats are still regrouping from the thrashing the national party suffered in 2024 and candidates in both races are testing messages they hope will galvanize voters in the midterms and beyond.

With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the abundance of candidates is a sign of both energy and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.

The common denominator between the races: “We have to learn how to focus on the game of expansion and strengthening our coalition,” Seawright said.