AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia’s special congressional election

WASHINGTON (AP) — All political roads lead to Rome. Rome, Georgia, that is.

Or at least they will on Tuesday, when voters in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District will elect a replacement for former Republican U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned in January following a public rift with President Donald Trump.

Republicans hold a slender majority in the chamber, and a Democratic upset in a district Trump carried with 68% of the vote in 2024 would tighten the GOP margin even further.

A crowded field of 22 candidates initially filed to run for the vacant U.S. House seat, but that number fell to 17 active contenders after a handful of withdrawals from the race. All candidates will compete on the same ballot regardless of political affiliation. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top two vote-getters will advance to an April 7 runoff.

Among the 12 Republicans competing in the special election are Clay Fuller, a state district attorney who has Trump’s endorsement, and former state Sen. Colton Moore.

Three Democrats are also vying for the seat, including Shawn Harris, a retired Army brigadier general who challenged Greene in 2024. Harris eclipsed the rest of the multi-party field in fundraising as of Feb. 18, with about $4.3 million raised and about $290,000 in the bank. Fuller had the second-largest war chest, with about $238,000 in the bank. He had raised about $787,000 over the course of the campaign.

The 14th Congressional District, in the northwest corner of Georgia, borders Alabama and Tennessee. It spans 10 counties, with Paulding the most populous, followed by a portion of Cobb. It is home to the cities of Rome, Dalton, Acworth and parts of Kennesaw.

Harris received about 36% of the district vote in his 2024 bid. His best performance was in Cobb, where he received about 49%, compared with 51% for Greene. He received about 41% of the vote in Paulding County, his second-best showing.

Greene received about 63% districtwide, with her best showing in Murray County.

Trump’s endorsement should be a boost for Fuller, considering Trump outperformed Greene across the district. But with the Democratic vote split among just three candidates compared with 12 for the GOP, Harris could snag one of the two runoff spots if he performs at his 2024 level.

Voters in state Senate District 53 will elect Moore’s replacement, while state House Districts 94 and 130 will also hold special elections to fill vacant seats. Republicans control both chambers of the state Legislature, and Tuesday’s special elections will not threaten their majorities.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Desk will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the special elections for the 14th Congressional District, state Senate District 53 and state House Districts 94 and 130.

Who gets to vote?

Any registered voter may participate in the special election in their district.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Thursday, there were about 521,000 registered voters in the 14th Congressional District. Georgia voters do not register by party.

About 378,000 votes were cast in the 2024 general election in the 14th District, which was roughly 74% of registered voters. About 76% of votes in that election were cast before Election Day.

Nearly 54,000 ballots had already been cast in the U.S. House special election as of Friday.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in the 14th Congressional District at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. By 11:24 p.m. ET, about 99% of the total vote had been tabulated. The last vote update of the night was from Cobb County at 4:46 a.m. ET, with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

When are early and absentee votes released?

All 10 counties in the 14th Congressional District tend to release some or all of their absentee voting results in the first vote update of the night. Four counties, including the two largest, Paulding and Cobb, also tend to include all of their results from early in-person voting in the first vote update. Since the 2020 election, Democrats have been more likely to cast their votes early or by mail. In jurisdictions that release mail and early vote results at the start of the night, this could result in the Democratic candidate taking an initial lead in the vote count until votes from in-person Election Day ballots are tallied.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 238 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.