Warning signs flash red for Republicans as Iran war drives up gas prices and Florida district flips

WASHINGTON (AP) — Political warning signs that have privately worried some Republicans for months are starting to flash red ahead of November’s midterm elections, as the war in Iran keeps gas prices high, travelers face unprecedented airport security wait times and Americans remain concerned about steep costs of living.

The latest sign of trouble came Tuesday from President Donald Trump’s own backyard as Democrat Emily Gregory won a Florida special election to flip a state legislative district that encompasses his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.

Against that backdrop, Trump will work to rally the GOP on Wednesday night when he addresses the National Republican Congressional Committee’s annual fundraising dinner at Washington’s Union Station.

The gathering comes as polling shows most Americans believe the U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far and voters are more and more worried about Trump’s failure to address affordability issues. That, coupled with a weakening labor market and worries about renewed inflation, means Republicans could face a string of glaring liabilities as they try to maintain control of both the House and Senate.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican from Alaska, said her constituents are asking about the path forward in Iran and whether Trump will deploy troops there.

“There’s a lot that people want to know, so whether it’s how it’s being communicated in the media, or how it’s being communicated here in the Congress, I think it’s lacking right now,” Murkowski said.

Trump suggests the Iran effect is a mere economic blip

Trump has so far mostly responded by continuing to point to record-high stock markets and low gas prices that evaporated after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. He’s also insisted that the current economic jolt will be temporary, and that he can bring the conflict to a close quickly — all of which defy the more complicated and nuanced political and economic realities.

Gas prices were $3.12 a gallon when Democratic President Joe Biden left office and were just under $3 before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in Iran. Today’s average is $3.98, according to motorist group AAA.

Higher prices at the pump tend to cascade through the economy, raising costs at the grocery store, in the service sector and in most other areas — meaning the worst of the political fallout might come in the months closer to Election Day.

In the meantime, about 59% of Americans say U.S. military strikes in Iran have been excessive, while 45% are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford gas in the next few months. That’s according to a poll released Wednesday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

That is up from 30% in promises that he would improve the economy and lower the cost of living.

Inflation is expected to rise with the jump in gas prices and longer-term interest rates have risen, pushing up the cost of mortgage loans, auto loans and business borrowing. That comes as employers cut 92,000 jobs last month.

In another political headache, the partial government shutdown has dragged on for five weeks, lately sparking chaos at some of the nation’s top airports.

The White House blames congressional Democrats who have blocked funding for the Department of Homeland Security as they press for restrictions on enhanced immigration enforcement operations. But efforts to broker a deal have stalled, and his administration insists it won’t back down on immigration.

“The American people are tired of the chaos. They’re tired of the excuses. And they’re tired of watching Washington fail,” said Rep. Mark Alford, a Missouri Republican who was among the party’s lawmakers who held a news conference Tuesday at Washington’s Ronald Reagan National Airport to blame Democrats for the shutdown.

A Democrat win on Trump’s home turf

Democrats, though, are bullish about their chances in November. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterm elections, and Democrats feel there are stronger political headwinds at play for Trump this year considering the war in Iran and the shockwaves it sent through an economy many voters were already wary of.

They got an extra boost Tuesday with Gregory’s win in the solidly Republican district including Mar-a-Lago. While she will have to run again in November, when turnout will likely be far higher, its repercussions weren’t lost on either party.

“If Democrats can win in Trump’s own backyard, we can win anywhere,” said Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin.

Through it all, Trump has suggested that the war in Iran is worth some short-term political jitters.

“I have to do what’s right,” Trump said recently aboard Air Force One. “I can’t say that ‘Gee, I don’t want to have any impact on oil prices for three or four weeks, or two months, and we’re going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon.’”

Some Republicans urge patience

Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., said voters in his Long Island-based district are concerned about affordability and safety. But he also said that the war in Iran means “the president is right to think about America’s long-term security.”

On whether Iran policy will be an anchor for Republicans, LaLota encouraged taking a wait-and-see approach leading up to November, and said any fallout could depend whether the U.S. has stopped Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think this could be a thing that bolster conservatives’ approach to national security,” he said.

Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, similarly said it was too early to jump to political conclusions.

“If we’re still at this stage in the war in the fall, then I’ll talk to you about that,” Hudson said. “But the president says it’s going to be short, so I believe him. I think he did the right thing by doing what he did.”

As for higher gas prices, Hudson said, “Voters are smart enough to know this is a temporary increase.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he trusts Trump’s assurances that Iran-related economic disruptions won’t last: “We’ll see how it shakes out, but our gameplan is exactly the same.”

“We’re going to go out and sell promises made, promises kept, our good record and we’re excited about that campaign.”

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Associated Press writers Kevin Freking and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.