With a stalemate in Ukraine and discontent at home, Putin seems ready to escalate his war

Facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians, President Vladimir Putin appears ready to try to change the narrative around the conflict.

He looks likely to sharply escalate the Russian aerial attacks on the Ukrainian capital in the hope it will shore up his sagging domestic approval ratings and persuade an increasingly pessimistic audience at home that Moscow is winning the war, now in its fifth year.

Russia’s warning to carry out “consistent and systematic” missile strikes on Kyiv, accompanied by a call for evacuating foreign embassies from the capital, signals Putin’s intention to expand Russia’s barrage despite the heavy costs and potential international outrage.

Massive drills of Russia’s nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of belligerent statements from Moscow warning Kyiv’s European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks have underlined Putin’s intention to up the ante.

As Russia’s advance stalls, Ukraine boosts long-range strikes

After a series of gains last year, Russia’s advances along the over 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line have ground to a near halt recently, and Ukraine’s armed forces have launched successful counterstrikes and reclaimed some ground.

“The character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis. “Russian forces’ rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare.”

The battlefield gridlock undermines Putin’s declared goal of quickly capturing the eastern Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. Kyiv has rejected his demands to withdraw from the region as a condition for a ceasefire.

At the same time, Ukraine has significantly expanded its long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities and arms factories, inflicting increasing damage.

Putin scaled down the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, fearing Ukrainian drone strikes. Days later, a massive drone attack on Moscow’s suburbs killed three and showed that even the densely protected capital isn’t fully immune from assault, shattering Kremlin efforts to cast the conflict as something distant that doesn’t affect ordinary Russians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks were “significantly changing the situation — and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war.”

Acknowledging the growing threat of Ukraine’s deep strikes, Russian lawmakers this week approved a bill that says the country’s banks should bear the cost of installing drone-jamming systems on their premises, rather than rely on the military.

“From Russia’s perspective, these attacks are just going to get worse,” said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute in London. He added that Ukraine’s increasingly audacious drone attacks were “exacting not only a political but an economic cost in Russia.”

The war is taking a toll on the Russian economy and morale

Russia’s economy has stagnated as the initial boost from massive military spending has petered out. The government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the budget deficit under control. And even though the U.S. war in Iran has meant windfall oil revenues for Russia, fundamental economic challenges remain.

Putin is expected to play down the negative dynamics at next week’s international economic forum in St. Petersburg, an annual event intended to showcase Russia’s achievements.

Nigel Gould-Davies of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an analysis that “war-fueled high prices of capital, labor and goods, as well as rising taxes, have begun to depress the civilian sectors,” resulting in “a dual economy of overheated military output and civilian stagnation.”

While Russia has relied on volunteer soldiers to fight the war, offering them comparatively high wages and other benefits, Gould-Davies argued that “there are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit.”

To sustain the war, the Kremlin will have to forcibly mobilize human and material resources, requiring it to “curtail the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, labor freedom, and freedom of movement,” he said.

In a sign of brewing discontent, some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin have started to openly criticize government policies.

A move by authorities to restrict cellphone internet and block popular messaging apps has upset daily routines for millions, causing open grumbling. Natalya Kasperskaya, a prominent IT entrepreneur and a staunch Kremlin supporter, harshly criticized the shutdowns and attempts to block virtual private networks, warning that they cause massive damage to the tech sector.

Tatyana Stanovaya, a Russia expert who founded the R.Politik newsletter focused on Kremlin politics, noted the spreading Ukrainian drone attacks along with mobile internet shutdowns and rising taxes have eroded Putin’s standing. While he faces no immediate threats to his rule, “the gradual fading of Putin’s credibility is real,” she said.

In early spring, Russian opinion polls, including one by a government-run pollster, recorded a dip in Putin’s approval ratings, although they rose slightly in May in the state-controlled poll after the organization changed its methodology to include face-to-face interviews. Many observers believe the numbers may be inflated amid a widespread crackdown on dissent.

“Putin is losing his magic,” Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Power remains undivided in his hands, but its spell is fading. Even loyalists complain about the mounting restrictions and repression, and once-upbeat businesspeople are now despondent.”

Russia’s new threats to Ukraine and the West

Citing a May 22 Ukrainian drone attack on a college dormitory in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine that Moscow said killed 21 people, Putin ordered a massive missile strike on Kyiv and its surrounding region. Sunday’s barrage that involved Russia’s new hypersonic Oreshnik missile killed two, injured scores of others and destroyed or damaged many buildings.

On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will launch “consistent and systematic” strikes on Kyiv to target drone-making facilities and “decision-making centers.” It urged foreign diplomats to leave the capital — a demand rejected by Ukraine’s allies.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn him of the coming strikes and push for the evacuation of its diplomats.

“The danger in all of these wars as they continue and then they go on is that they always have the threat of escalation, of spreading into something new,” Rubio told reporters after the call.

The Iran war has effectively put U.S. mediation efforts in Ukraine on hold and drained American missile arsenals, delaying the delivery of U.S.-made Patriot missiles that Ukraine desperately needs to fend off Russian attacks.

Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev said Russia sees the shortage of air defense assets in Kyiv as an opportunity.

“Kyiv’s air defenses have been exhausted enough to make a massive attack efficient,” he said in a recent commentary.

Accompanying the declared blitz on Kyiv, Russia issued a barrage of threats aimed at Ukraine’s European allies.

The Defense Ministry published a list of facilities in Europe that it said were involved in manufacturing drones and their components for Ukraine. And Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned the Baltic nations that their NATO membership won’t protect them from Moscow’s retaliation if they allow Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory. Those allies have denounced Moscow’s claims.

“We are actually very, very close to direct military confrontation,” said Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.