Democrats seek to flip Nevada governor’s seat in a key test for the party’s chances in 2028

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Voters in Nevada will decide Tuesday whether to give Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo another four years in office or hand control of the state over to Democrats in an election that could offer a glimpse at the political forces shaping the next presidential race.

The contest between Lombardo, a former Las Vegas -area sheriff, and Democrat Aaron Ford, the state’s attorney general, comes as Nevadans grapple with some of the highest gas prices in the country, a shortage of tens of thousands of homes, a lagging education system and a decline in tourism that’s crucial for the economy.

Lombardo wants to expand on his first-term accomplishments, which include working with the Democrat-controlled state Legislature to boost education funding by $2.6 billion and invest $183 million into housing. He hopes to recruit more healthcare workers and increase per-pupil funding.

Ford, who would be the state’s first Black governor, has campaigned on affordability. He promised to tackle student loan debt and crack down on the development of artificial intelligence data centers.

Lombardo sought to portray the attorney general as soft on crime and insisted Ford’s policy goals would be too expensive. Ford has tried to paint the governor as a staunch loyalist of President Donald Trump, who won Nevada in 2024 by less than 50,000 votes.

In his single term, Lombardo has vetoed more legislation than any other Nevada governor, portraying his veto pen as the last line of defense against Democratic bills he views as harmful.

If Democrats win the governorship and keep their majorities in the state Legislature, it’ll be their first trifecta since Lombardo was narrowly elected in 2022, giving Ford a much freer hand to make the changes he wants.

The race for governor casts a shadow beyond Nevada

The westernmost battleground state has a distinctive electorate that doesn’t always follow national political trends.

Democratic strength in Las Vegas is counterbalanced by heavily Republican rural areas, and the true wild cards are the nonpartisan voters who make up nearly 40% of the electorate. The steady flow of people into and out of the state, as well as the large number of working-class and Latino voters, make it difficult to predict statewide races.

Demographers anticipate that the rest of the country will look more like Nevada in the next couple decades with increasing diversity, making what happens in the state an early indicator of the nation’s future. Although Nevada only has six electoral college votes, potential 2028 presidential candidates have flocked to the state to show support for either Ford or Lombardo. Both parties have Nevada as an early state in their nominating calendar.

The economy takes center stage

Democrats want to connect Lombardo with the economy under Trump, saying the president’s tariffs harmed Las Vegas tourism, which saw a 17% drop in Canadian visitors in 2025. Trump has feuded with Canadian leaders, and the two countries are in the middle of a trade dispute.

Ford criticized Lombardo for vetoing legislation the Democrat said would make life more affordable, such as a bill to limit home purchases by corporate investors.

The governor portrayed Ford as a threat to the state’s business-friendly climate and sought to tie him to California Gov. Gavin Newsom, claiming Ford would bring the “Newsom playbook” of high taxes and more regulations. Newsom was among the big-name Democrats and potential 2028 presidential hopefuls who campaigned for Ford. Former Vice President Kamala Harris also visited.

Law enforcement backgrounds are key to the race

Both candidates faced scrutiny for how they exercised their authority in law enforcement.

Ford’s campaign criticized Lombardo after he avoided a traffic ticket in Las Vegas, interrupting the police officer to say “I’m Joe Lombardo.” Meanwhile, the governor’s campaign blasted Ford for sponsoring consideration of a clemency application for a man who killed a pregnant woman in 2017.

Lombardo secured a major boost when the Democratic district attorney for Clark County, which covers Las Vegas, endorsed the governor instead of his fellow Democrat.

The governor served in law enforcement for over 25 years before becoming sheriff of Clark County in 2014. He became well known in 2017 while overseeing the investigation into the Las Vegas mass shooting, the deadliest in modern U.S. history. Lombardo was born in Japan to a U.S. military family stationed overseas and served in the Army and the Nevada National Guard.

Ford, a former state senator who was a math teacher before going to law school, has described growing up in poverty, frequently telling the story of how his father brought home stale candy bars from the grocery store he worked at for the family’s dinner. Since being elected attorney general in 2019, he has secured millions in settlements from opioid manufacturers, and he successfully sued a student loan servicer and the gaming platform Roblox.

The race may not be called on election night

Nevada allows for mail ballots to be accepted up to four days after the election as long as they are postmarked on Election Day.

Late-arriving ballots only make up about 2% of the total mail ballots, but races can often come down to just one or two percentage points. Lombardo won in 2022 by 1.5 percentage points.