Cliff Mass: It’s too early to predict a ‘super El Niño’ this year
Apr 9, 2026, 6:19 PM
Several climate scientists are warning the public that there is a growing chance of a super El Niño later this year, which could significantly affect hurricanes.
“Cliff Mass, is it really super duper?” KIRO host John Curley asked.
“Well, I think it’s a little early to go for super duper,” Mass answered. “We’ve been in a La Niña. That means colder-than-normal water, and the models are suggesting we’ll transition to an El Niño, which is warmer-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific, but it’s a little too early to go for super duper.”
Mass is a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington (UW) and author of the Cliff Mass Weather Blog. According to Mass, most modeling systems worldwide are predicting a weak-to-moderate El Niño, not a super one. One modeling group in the European Center is predicting a super El Niño so far.
El Niño is a cyclical and natural warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific that then alters the world’s weather patterns, while La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average waters.
“There’s another problem, our skill forecasting El Niños is not good in the spring,” Mass said. “In fact, there’s even a name for that. It’s called the forecast barrier. The skill is really very moderate right now. It’s not until we get to probably July that we will really have a good idea of what’s going to happen. It’s way too early to get revved up about it right now.”
Mass stated that conditions are certainly moving towards El Niño, but maintained that weather forecasters should be careful not to assume the Super El Niño prediction is correct.
“Again, I mean, I just think we should refrain from these predictions at this point,” Mass said. “We really don’t know how strong. It’s too early, and some of these media groups are just getting ahead of things.”
Watch the full discussion in the video above.
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