Will Seattle become more bike-friendly after the ‘Big One’ hits?

Officials have made it pretty clear that when an earthquake the likes of which none of us have ever experienced shakes the Pacific Northwest, infrastructure will likely be nearly unusable.

Even if our infrastructure isn’t left unrecognizable, the state has said roads will likely be closed to the public for some time in order to give first responders priority access.

So how will people get around in a timely fashion? That answer should be obvious to many who live in the Greater Seattle area.

“Bikes are my plan,” John Vidale, professor at the University of Washington and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, wrote during a reddit discussion.

Though Vidale commutes by bicycle every day, he makes a good point: During rush hour, cars are backed up while traffic on the Burke-Gilman Trail is moving along just fine.

“I, too, plan on using my bicycle to get to work IF the roads are impassable when the next earthquake hits,” wrote Maximilian Dixon, geologic hazards manager with the Washington Emergency Management Division. “I prefer a lighter bicycle that I can pick up and carry over debris, with a rack on it so I can bring my go bag/preparedness materials with me.”

The discussion over how people in Western Washington would get around was sparked by the Great ShakeOut!, an earthquake preparedness drill that more than 50 million people participated in. More than 1 million participated in Washington state.

If a magnitude-8.7 to 9.2 earthquake hits, the Northwest edge of the continental shelf will drop as much as six feet and then rebound 30 to 100 feet to the west. All the elevation gained will be lost within minutes, displacing an almost unfathomable amount of water that will go both east and west. A “liquid wall” will reach the coast in about 15 minutes.

Though the chances of a high-magnitude earthquake vary depending on who you ask, it’s higher than many would like.

“There is a lot of discussion in the scientific community about the probability of a M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in the next 50 years,” Dixon wrote. “Depending on who you talk to, this ranges from 10 to 14 (percent) or even higher probability within 50 years.”

And here’s the response from a reddit user:

Those are some scary numbers…

Just make sure you have plenty of supplies stored away and a bike in your garage.

State largely unprepared for mega-quake

Speaking of supplies, the state received a failing grade when it comes to preparedness for a massive earthquake, according to a draft report that was reviewed by The Seattle Times. That means — among other things — people will need much more food stored away than officials suggested in the past.

Instead of asking people to have three days worth of food and water on hand, officials are going to recommend people have enough resources for two weeks.

The report from FEMA was based on the four-day training exercise in June, where more than 20,000 emergency responders prepared for a devastating earthquake. FEMA found that a humanitarian disaster is possible within 10 days of a major earthquake, the Times reports. It was also found that emergency management operations are in bad shape, with low staffing and budget shortfalls that could impact the state’s ability to efficiently respond in the event of a disaster.

There would be long delays to get major roads reopened after damage and a failure in the satellite phones that were supposed to be used to coordinate a response, according to the report.

Emergency management officials will meet with the governor to discuss the study in January.

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