How Seattle City Council could change in just one day

For the first time in more than 100 years, every Seattle City Council seat &#8212 nine in total, including three uncontested positions &#8212 is up for grabs during a single election. It could mean a complete overturn of City Hall in a single day.

The 2015 election will not only be the first glimpse of how Seattle’s new district-based system will work, but also a test to determine if the old government maxims &#8212 money and power &#8212 remain effective.

“When the voters voted for districts, they were saying they didn’t like the status quo and they wanted different types of city council members, ones that were closer to them and pay more attention to their interests,” said former Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn, who is watching the election closely as he has already endorsed three candidates, including incumbent Kshama Sawant for position 3, Debadutta Dash for position 5, and John Roderick for position 8.

How the 2015 election could change the Seattle City Council overnight

Seattle voted in 2013 to elect seven of its nine council members by districts, instead of voting citywide. Those seven candidates now vie for votes in their corner of the city alone. The remaining two candidates are selected by all Seattle voters.

Map: City Council districts

That means the five running incumbents can’t run the same kind of races that got them their current council seats. And it could mean that their incumbency won’t guarantee winning another election.

“These races are often decided with pretty small margins and pretty small voter numbers, especially when you are talking about district-based races,” said Joel Williams, project director for municipal government for Ballotpedia, an almanac of American politics and elections, covering every elected position in the nation.

Incumbents Kshama Sawant, Bruce Harrell, Mike O’Brien, and Tim Burgess may now face fiercer competition for their positions.

With only one term on the council, Seattle voters will determine if Sawant’s outspoken criticisms and Socialist politics will continue to be a factor at City Hall. She has two candidates giving serious chase for her council position.

Godden has been on the council since 2004, but has one person attempting to take her council position.

The creation of new districts could be why a flurry of candidates have come forward &#8212 a total of 47, more than any time in recent history. Seattle’s current average of five candidates vying for each position is double the national average for 2014, according to Ballotpedia.

Competing for votes on a hyper-local level, could be why some council members are choosing not to run this year. Longtime council members Sally Clark, Nick Licata, and Tom Rasmussen have all announced their resignations. Most recently, John Okamoto stepped in to temporarily replace Clark.

Money

The district council races will also test whether money will play as much of a role in Seattle’s council elections, and could be another reason that the races have attracted so many candidates with a sentiment that their local presence can beat campaign dollars.

Of the five incumbents, Sawant and Burgess face some degree of financial competition.

In Sawant’s District 3, Pamela Banks has raised $48,433, and Rodney Hearne has raised $47,397. Both have raised more than half of incumbent Sawant’s $81,756.

Council member Bruce Harrell has held his position since 2007, and sits on 11 different committees or boards. He has raised $136,442 to start his race against only one challenger, Tammy Morales. Morales has raised $33,916.

Council member Tim Burgess has raised far more than his rival John Roderick. Burgess has $147,243 for the District 8 race. Roderick has $55,585. Roderick, however, also has buzz going in his favor, such as an endorsement from former Mayor McGinn.

“Under the old at-large system where you had to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars to run citywide, now with districts, a candidate can potentially knock on enough doors and talk to enough voters to knock off an incumbent,” McGinn said. “That’s why you are seeing so many candidates come forward. Incumbency is always an advantage, but before it was an overwhelming advantage. Now I think some of these incumbents are in trouble.”

But incumbency could still provide a considerable leg up for six current council members who can raise more money than their competition before the August primaries. Money historically packed a punch in the fight for votes.

“All the incumbents who are still running have a major advantage in terms of contributions raised, which is also an indicator of how well they’ll do in the election,” Williams said.

“There’s a pretty strong correlation between funds raised and how big of a competitor you can be in your race,” he said. “On the local level, funds are much smaller. I think in the District 1 race, the leader has more than $30,000, and there’s a couple people in the $20,000s. Even just a small amount there can show who the real players are in that race.”

To be exact, Thomas Koch has raised $36,000 and Lisa Herbold has raised $37,547 so far. They are trailed by Shannon Braddock with $27,518.

Council member Rasmussen raised nearly $45,000 before announcing that he would not run in the 2015 election earlier this year.

“It’s kind of a good barometer to show how strong a candidate is, but maybe not necessarily how many votes they will end up getting,” Williams said.

What it boils down to

What is guaranteed, according to Williams, is that there will be three new council members in 2016 from uncontested positions in districts 1, 5, and 9. It opens the possibility for more diverse voices, even ones that stray from the pack; which is novel for the Seattle council that usually agrees.

“You’re a little bit further from getting a majority/minority voting block,” Williams said. “But it could be a start toward that.”

Incumbents may not be able to spend their way to votes on such a local level. Which is why voting for a new candidate is important, Williams said. They might be around for a while.

“If you elect someone the first time, that person is likely to stick around for a couple of terms, barring some huge calamity,” Williams said, noting that on average, 88 percent of incumbents fare well in a re-election.

“Incumbency is such a big advantage,” he said. “You want to make sure the people that are getting into office, you want them there for a while. Because chances are, they will be.”

*Money raised as of May 20, 2015 &#8212 the start of the council races.