How’s the winter weather outlook?

In September, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicated increased odds on warmer than average temperatures and below normal precipitation thanks mainly to a developing weak El Nino. In the midst of the winter season, how has this seasonal weather outlook been doing in western Washington?

After a wet October, November through much of January has had below average precipitation with the exception of the central coast into the Olympia area. After a record warm 2014, the mild winter has continued into January.

The combination of warm and relatively dry winter weather has created a well below mountain snow pack. According to the Northwest Avalanche Center, snow depth ranges from just 13 percent of normal at White Pass to 54 percent at Paradise on Mount Rainier. National Resources Conservation Service mountain river drainage precipitation totals show precipitation has been close to seasonal normal, but snow water equivalent is well below normal, meaning the snow pack is not in good shape.

What does it look like for the rest of the winter? The latest seasonal forecast continues the warm trend through at least this spring while precipitation odds remain in the drier category before improving this spring to equal odds of wetter, drier or close to average. This trend does not bode well for the mountain snow pack.

Can the mountain snow situation turn around? Last year, it did. After a dry December and January, precipitation returned in earnest with a very wet February and March. By early April, the mountain snow pack had recovered to about average snow depths. If the latest seasonal weather outlook continues to be on track, this season’s mountain snow pack may not make that kind of comeback.

Monitor www.weather.gov/seattle/ for the latest area forecasts and use the Seasonal Weather Outlook headline to view the latest 8 to 14 day, 30-day and seasonal outlooks.