More than Boeing employees concerned over company’s future in Puget Sound

Boeing announced Tuesday that it expects the world will need more than 35,000 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, but just where will those planes be built?

Boeing’s 20-year market outlook shows increases in the projected number of planes needed and the dollars the company will be competing for: 35,000 new planes worth an estimated $4.8 trillion. That’s what Boeing is looking to cash in on.

But what piece of the pie will Puget Sound get out of that?

The nagging concern that Boeing will someday pull up its stakes and move out of Puget Sound comes up every time there’s an expansion in South Carolina or a shift in work out of state. It’s been happening since the company moved its headquarters to Chicago 12 years ago.

Boeing has put Puget Sound on notice recently that it will have to compete for future work, now that it has more options.

But what’s the likelihood that the company will simply walk away from Washington?

Ray Goforth is the executive director of the engineers’ union SPEEA. “The company’s not going to shut down factories where it has billions of dollars invested and move all that work,” he said, but he understands that could change. “The company leadership has been fairly clear that when it’s placing new work, (it’s) going to go to places where the government will write them huge checks.”

That means over the next 20 years, as Boeing looks to take advantage of the projected $4.8 trillion in airplane demand, more of that work will be done elsewhere.

Aviation analyst Scott Hamilton said Puget Sound has nothing to fear over the next 20 years, but he’s worried where the successors to the 777, 787 and 737 MAX will end up.

“When you start looking at clean-sheet designs, that’s where I think Puget Sound needs to be concerned as to whether or not the Boeing of the 2020 decade, 2030 decade, is going to keep those airplanes here,” said Hamilton.

This is more than a Boeing worker concern. For every one Boeing job in Washington, about four others are needed. That’s nearly 350,000 jobs in this state that rely on Boeing and its people.

Analyst Richard Aboulafia also doesn’t see Boeing taking off, and he doesn’t see a huge impact of these smaller company decisions, like moving engineering work.

“I don’t think you’re going to see any tectonic shift, and of course, the greater Washington state economy is plenty well diversified,” he said. “While it might miss out on growth here and there, I don’t think it’s going to take any kind of a body blow as a result of these Boeing changes.”

With a backlog of more than 4,000 airplanes to build, Boeing has more than enough work to keep Renton and Everett humming for years, even if a small chunk of those planes and parts will be built in South Carolina.