In defense of meteorologists: Don’t get mad at forecasts

Weather comes and weather goes, and meteorologists are there each step of the way to offer predictions of what tomorrow’s conditions will be like — sunny with scattered showers; cold and overcast with a chance of sun breaking through; rainy and 85 degrees.

They keep predicting. We keep listening. And everyone gets frustrated when things don’t turn out exactly as meteorologists say.

Check local weather conditions

But local meteorologists argue that uncertainty is the biggest factor in predicting the weather. While they may know how certain factors could offer certain results, there’s always uncertainty. For example, it was predicted that snow would fall in the lowlands on Monday morning. It did. But meteorologists were careful to say it was a “possibility.”
On the other hand, there is the now infamous windstorm that never was last October. High winds were supposed to blast the Puget Sound region in what was expected to be a historic storm. But nothing happened.

“When that low (system) didn’t move in like I thought it was, I was devastated,” KIRO 7 meteorologist Nick Allard recently told the Dori Monson Show. “Not because I wanted a huge destructive storm. But you put yourself out there … and it’s a blow to the ego.”

Then consider Tuesday, Dec. 6. Meteorologists, Allard included, predicted that snow was likely to fall from Port Angeles to Everett, and possibly down to Seattle — and to the tune of a few inches. Port Angeles saw some snow flakes. But everywhere else … got rain. A convergence zone that would have provided that Puget Sound snow never occurred as expected.

“When I was in meteorology school one of my professors used to say, ‘No matter what you say, somebody that day is going to think you are wrong,’” Allard explained. “Say, if I said that it will be partly sunny with a shower or two – Lynnwood sees a shower, Edmonds doesn’t. Was I right, or was I wrong? I don’t know, and I think it’s a fair point.”

Meteorologists and probability

It comes down to probabilities, and most people don’t consider that when it comes to the weather. For example, snow in Western Washington.

“It is hard to predict snow,” UW Professor and Climatologist Cliff Mass told the Ron and Don Show. “First, it doesn’t happen here very often. The reason for that is it is very difficult to get snow, while it is easy for us to be wet and mild, and not so hard to be cold and dry. But to be wet and cold at the same time, you need just the right conditions. And that is hard.”

Even though many areas around Seattle saw snow at low elevations, not everywhere saw it Monday. So were meteorologists right to say snow was going to fall? It was a similar prediction for more snow Monday night — a narrow band of snowfall moving through the region that wouldn’t hit everyone was predicted.

Ron Upshaw drew an example from the recent election. Some predictions showed Hillary Clinton had a 70 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump. But at the same time, it also meant that she had a 30 percent chance of losing. Sure, it was only 30 percent, but there was a chance.

Mass emphasizes having a healthy perception of probabilities, which is what you are getting from a forecast.

“People have to know that we can’t say this is what is going to happen with 100 percent assurance,” Mass said. “It’s always probabilities. There’s always uncertainty in forecasts.”

“Elections are the same thing,” he said. “Polling has a lot of uncertainties and they have to use probabilities. Probability is the most honest way to communicate what we know.”

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