Researchers, UW scientists forecast volcano eruption

Up until now, predicting when volcanoes will erupt has been a mix of science and best guesses.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration researchers and University of Washington scientists have used a new theory on an undersea volcano off the coast of Oregon that might eliminate the guesses.

Based on actions leading up to an eruption in 1998, scientists were able to forecast the Axial Seamount’s eruption.

“Their prediction was that based on the 15 centimeters per year inflation rate, they would hit that point where it would be ready to erupt before the year 2014,” explained David Butterfield, an oceanographer working on the project. “The theory was that when it re-inflated back to that same level, refilling the magma chamber with magma, then it should be ready to re-erupt.”

The sea volcano erupted in April 2011, confirming the theory.

Geologists used sensors to measure vertical movements of the sea floor, much like scientists use GPS to measure ground movements.

Butterfield said they’d like to get to the point where they can successfully predict a range for eruption on a volcano in the Cascades, but they’re not promising the same theory applies.

“The geological setting on the Mid-Ocean Ridge is different from what we have here. I don’t think you can directly predict that there will be an eruption at a certain point of inflation on one of the Cascade volcanoes,” said Butterfield.