Seattle climatologist says wildfire deaths could have been avoided
Aug 24, 2015, 2:02 PM | Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 10:26 am
University of Washington professor Cliff Mass told KIRO Radio's Dave Ross that the forecast the day before a wildfire turned deadly showed changing winds that would have been cause to rethink sending people in.
The three firefighters that died while assessing spreading wildfires in Central Washington shouldn’t have been there in the first place, according to climatologist Cliff Mass.
The University of Washington professor told KIRO Radio’s Dave Ross that the forecast the day before showed changing winds that would have been cause to rethink sending people in.
Related: The latest news on the largest wildfires in Washington’s history
Forecasts for Aug. 19 “clearly showed” changing wind direction and wind speed, Mass said. So the reports saying the weather conditions, which fueled the flames that killed three men and critically injuring a fourth, were unpredictable, is not exactly true.
“It wasn’t unpredictable, chaotic or random,” Mass told Ross. “This was forecast the day before. This is something we knew was going to happen.”
Mass’s criticism of how officials handled the situation come while one firefighter, Daniel Lyon continues to fight for his life. About 60 percent of Lyon’s body was burned by wildfire from the Okanogan complex.
Related: Families of fallen firefighters trying to come to terms with loss
But how much time did officials have before the men were killed? Was there really enough advance notice that could have been used to save them? Dave asked.
Computer models showed the changing air movement across the mountains on Aug. 18, Mass said. Forecasters knew “way, way before.” There was confirmation of the changing weather hours before, he added.
“This isn’t a weather forecasting problem,” Mass said. “It’s a communication problem.”
The firefighters need to have meteorologists watching their back at all times during these types of fires; especially with the largest fire in state history. The problem is, according to Mass, that weather experts aren’t brought in until a fire reaches a certain size.
“You need someone with meteorological background,” Mass said. “Someone watching the area in real time.”
Mass’ criticism hasn’t received the warmest reception. He told Dave that people on his blog have questioned if the information was necessary to publish. He’s been told he should have kept the information to himself and to wait for the final report.
However, fire season isn’t over, he argues. By showing that the change in wind was predictable — and potentially loss of life — maybe something will be changed sooner, rather than in six months to a year when the report comes out.
