Voting on I-502 just beginning of long road for marijuana issue

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If the polls are accurate, Washington is set to become the first state to legalize the recreational use of marijuana for people over 21.

The University of Washington found 55 percent of likely voters were in favor of I-502. Their poll, conducted about one week before the election, found just 38 percent opposed the initiative.

The Washington Secretary of State’s Office describes the measure this way:

This measure would license and regulate marijuana production, distribution, and possession for persons over twenty-one; remove state-law criminal and civil penalties for activities that it authorizes; tax marijuana sales; and earmark marijuana-related revenues.

You can find the full language of the initiative here. (pdf)

Economics of Legalizing Marijuana

The financial issues might be even more complicated than either side realizes.

The first, obvious economic impact of I-502 is the taxes it would place on marijuana once pot is legalized. To figure out just how much money that will bring in, Professor Jonathan Caulkins at Carnegie Melon University says we first have to know the price of pot. He says that will change once it is legal.

“Marijuana is essentially an agricultural crop […] there’s no reason why it should be nearly as expensive as it is except for the prohibition,” Caulkins says.

Caulkins compares the production of legal pot to the growing of crops like apples or tea. There are estimates the price could drop by as much as 50 percent.

The Washington initiative sets up a three-tiered tax system where it would be taxed at 25 percent at the production level, at the distribution level, and at the point of sale.

“The price decline would greatly reduce the revenues relative to what you would naively project if you imagined that it was still going to be $10 or $12 a gram,” says Caulkins.

There is also a financial risk that comes along with legalizing marijuana. It could set up a battle with the federal government, which still considers the drug illegal.

While there might not be any large savings to the state by not enforcing the prohibition of pot, Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron says there would likely be secondary effects on our economy. For example, Washington’s 8.5 percent unemployment rate might drop.

“The number of people employed wouldn’t necessarily change very much. It would just be that someone who had been employed as an illegal marijuana grower would now be a legal marijuana grower,” Miron says.

There likely would be a positive economic impact from the legalization of marijuana. Unfortunately, there are too many variables for anyone to guess just how much.

Miron and Caulkins agree the financial argument should not be the main consideration for people deciding whether or not to support legalizing marijuana.

Driving Under the Influence of Drugs

Legalizing marijuana could affect more than just where users buy their drug of choice. It could seriously impact how those users are prosecuted for Driving Under the Influence of Drugs.

Initiative 502 sets up a limit of five nanograms of THC per milliliter of blood. Any more than that and drivers could be prosecuted. While they would face the same penalties currently in place, some say the threshold set by the new rules would be unfair.

“I’m a medical marijuana user. I wake up at 3 to 4 times the legal limits when I wake up in the morning, and I guarantee you I’m not impaired,” says Steve Sarich, spokesman for the No on 502 campaign.

Sarich worries the initiative to legalize recreational marijuana use in Washington state would result in the prosecution of medicinal users. While some users may be impaired at five nanograms, Sarich says he has built up a tolerance. He claims it takes a lot more of the drug to make him too affected to drive.

“At 50 nanograms I’m definitely not impaired,” says Sarich, “It is such an individual thing.”

While Sarich says studies are mixed on the effects of marijuana on driving ability, Forensic Toxicologist Dave Michaelson says it is clear to him. THC affects the hippocampus more than any other area of the body. Michaelson explains, that’s the computer portion of the brain that controls reactions to outside stimulus.

“What happens is it starts affecting how fasts you can respond if a child jumps out into the road you ability to quickly slam on the brakes is going to be affected. It’s going to take longer,” says Michaelson.

With DUI laws applying to liquor on the books for decades, many drivers have become used to being able to measure their intoxication level and wait the appropriate time before getting behind the wheel.

One problem with marijuana, according to Michaelson, is that the math is not so easy.

Not only does THC add up in a person at different rates based on how frequently they’ve used the drug in the past, it also can dissipate at different rates. That’s because alcohol is a water-soluble substance while THC is fat-soluble.

“If you spilled alcohol on your hands and washed them in the sink, that alcohol would be off in a matter of moments,” Michaelson explains. “But if you spilled oil on your hands and you then put your hand under a water faucet, it’s takes a lot of time if you’re not using soap to get that oil off your hands.”

For daily users of marijuana whose fat cells are already saturated with THC, Michaelson says it can take weeks or even months for the drug to get below the five nanogram limit set under I-502. Even though the user may not currently feel high, he says the THC is still affecting their ability to drive safely.

“Even though the driver won’t necessarily feel high,” Michaelson says, “the actual effect of that THC will continue on them to a lesser degree.”

Making “Medibles”

Whether or not I-502 passes, there’s already a vibrant marijuana industry in our state that includes more than just plants and dispensaries. There are dozens of bakers who will be eager to see the results of the vote.

‘Sally’ makes hand-made treats you might expect to find at a high-end chocolate shop. Many of them are decorated with ribbons of pink frosting, drizzled caramel or dusted with powdered sugar. It would be impossible to tell just by looking at them that they’re all infused with cannabis butter.

“Medibles are different for each person, so I always say to try half a piece,” says Sally.

It’s her first time working as a baker. She says she learned how to do it a few years back when she became a medical marijuana patient herself. She comes up with the recipes herself and even makes her own cannibis butter.

For now, they can only sell their sweets to medical marijuana patients. They have no problem keeping customers coming through their doors, but they’re careful to note they are not a business.

“We’re a collective,” says ‘Steve’. “We don’t sell anything. Everything’s donation.”

There is a small profit that comes from the bakery, but they say competition is fierce in Seattle. They keep their prices pretty low to compete.

As far as what I-502 might do for their business, they’re not sure yet.

“They didn’t put any protection in for us, so that may have to be fought out in court,” Steve says.

If the courts decide marijuana can only be sold through state-run stores, they may have to call it quits.