Many Washington schools are not prepared for a major earthquake

Washington state has thousands of school buildings and many are unprepared for a major earthquake, which experts say looms on the horizon.

“These buildings really are benchmarks for our communities,” said Corina Forson, chief hazards geologist for Washington Geological Survey with the Department of Natural Resources. “This is where people gather following a natural disaster. This is where we would potentially have shelter options. In my mind, it’s critical that these schools be upgraded to withstand earthquakes that will happen in the future.”

A new study on school seismic safety in Washington considers how well the state’s school buildings can withstand a major earthquake. Geologists and other researchers visited a sample size of 222 schools in Washington, assessed the geography of the area, and looked into structural conditions. They found that many of the state’s school buildings are not prepared for a shakeup, especially older buildings.

Upgrades and retrofits will be required to make the buildings safe and able to resist an earthquake. The state adopted seismic building standards in 1975, and many Washington schools were built prior to that.

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The assessment was delivered to the Legislature on Friday. It was also delivered to the 222 schools involved in the study. That’s a small sample given that there are 4,444 school buildings in Washington state.

The Seattle Times reports that state officials estimate that a magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami could kill about 7,600 students. It also reports that neighboring areas like British Columbia, California, and Oregon have already spent considerable funds on the issue. Washington, however, has no money set aside for addressing earthquake risks to older school buildings, nor does it require seismic upgrades.

“The median building is expected to be 43 percent damaged in one of these large earthquakes,” Forson said. “The majority of these buildings, greater than 53 percent, are expected to receive a red tag, meaning the building will be unsafe to occupy following an earthquake … we approximate that one fourth of the buildings will not be repairable following this design-level earthquake and may require demolition.”

According to DNR, about 200 schools are within a mile of a known active fault trace, 72 percent of schools are within a high seismic hazard zone, and 314 schools are in zones that are a high risk of liquefaction during an earthquake. The study could be used to inform future retrofitting and building upgrades to better protect against earthquake damage.

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The costs to address these damages vary from small to large buildings. Those costs can range from $63,000 to more than $5 million, Forson said. The average cost is $1.7 million. She notes that it is much cheaper to fund retrofits than to pay for damages after the fact.

The recently released study is just the first phase of an ongoing project. Researchers will now look into another 350 school buildings before the 2021 school year is out.

One point that Forson noted was that the study did not look at districts like Seattle.

“Seattle Public Schools is doing a wonderful job of upgrading and retrofitting their facilities,” she said. “In the appendix of the report we highlight that as a case study on these larger, wealthier school districts; they have the bond capacity to upgrade their school system.”

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