Income tax on millionaires faces uncertain future as WA legislature enters final days

A proposed income tax on millionaires faces an uncertain path to passage as Washington lawmakers enter the final week of their legislative session, with about a dozen moderate Democrats holding leverage over one of the most consequential tax votes in years.

The bill needs 50 votes in the state House to pass. With 37 co-sponsors among 59 Democratic members and unified Republican opposition expected, supporters must secure roughly a dozen additional votes from wavering moderates.

“We’ve really entered into kind of the vote-buying stage of this period,” said Paul Queary, a political reporter for the Washington Observer on Substack, speaking Thursday on “Seattle’s Morning News.” “If you’re in that sort of about a dozen, maybe about 10, you’re going to want something for your vote, because this is one of the most consequential and potentially politically risky votes in a long, long time.”

Moderate Democrats hold leverage over consequential tax vote

Governor Bob Ferguson has signaled the measure might not advance this year, echoing a pattern from last session when his push for a bipartisan budget deal faltered. Queary said Ferguson hasn’t received the tax relief provisions he sought in the income tax package.

The holdout Democrats overlap significantly with those who recently sided with Republicans to modify the Keeping Families Together Act, highlighting a growing rift between progressive and moderate factions within the party.

“That conflict can get pretty harsh behind the closed doors of the caucus,” Queary said. “The moderates used to have kind of a lot of power and a lot of sway, because they were really the margin between having the majority and not having the majority. Nowadays, that’s just less true.”

With a nine-vote cushion, he added, “it can be kind of lonely to be in that handful of moderates and just get dragged along by the rest of the caucus.”

The swing-vote Democrats are seeking various concessions, including tax relief measures elsewhere in the state tax code, passage of favored legislation, and capital budget projects for their districts.

“On the bottom line, I think what you’re looking at basically is money and changes to state law that are in play right now,” Queary said.

Supporters believe 2026 midterms favor Democrats if tax faces ballot challenge

If the income tax passes, supporters expect it to face a ballot challenge. Democrats believe the political climate favors them, pointing to the 2026 midterm elections during President Donald Trump’s second term.

“This figures to be a really good year for Democrats. This is the second Trump midterms,” Queary said. “The last midterm in 2018 was a bloodbath for Republicans. You just figure that there’ll be a lot of reasons for progressives to come to the polls.”

Despite the tension, Queary predicted the bill would ultimately pass.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of drama, but I really expect this thing to get across the finish line,” he said.

Queary, who visited the Capitol on Wednesday, described an atmosphere thick with tension as lobbyists and lawmakers negotiated in the rotunda.

“A lot of people circling like vultures, trying to get stuff they need, trying to kill stuff,” he said. “It’s a really complex game of three-dimensional chess down there this time of year.”

The legislative session concludes on March 12.

Manda Factor is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. Follow Manda on X and email her here. 

Follow @MandaFactor