A high-stakes fight for state political power heats up, with Trump’s agenda on the line

Political power in legislatures and governors’ offices is at stake in the November elections in more than one-third of the states, creating down-ballot drama in the midterms that could have significant implications for President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Outside groups aligned with the two major parties have pledged heavy spending in a battle for control of closely divided legislatures in at least a half-dozen states. But that’s just the tip of the spear in their political jousting.

In numerous other states, the parties are striving to make or break a legislative supermajority — an important threshold that allows them to enact laws with little regard to dissent. And in several states, competitive gubernatorial races could determine whether one party achieves a political trifecta, grasping hold of both legislative chambers and the top executive spot.

Party control of state governments can shape policies on contentious issues including abortion, school choice, data centers and the use of law-enforcement surveillance cameras. In a few states, the electoral outcomes this cycle could also have congressional redistricting implications for 2028.

The state races also carry significant implications for Trump’s agenda, because the elected officials can either aid or resist his immigration enforcement actions, social safety net limitations and efforts to alter voting procedures.

All told, voters in 46 states will choose more than 6,100 lawmakers in November, accounting for about 83% of all legislative seats nationwide, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections.

Trump’s approval ratings could swing state legislatures

Historically, the party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections. That also is true of state legislative seats.

In midterm elections over the past 50 years, the president’s party has lost an average of 7.9% of its house and assembly seats up for reelection in states, according to research by Steven Rogers, a political science professor at Saint Louis University. In Trump’s first midterm, in 2018, Republicans lost 8.7%, Rogers said.

A similar showing this year could spell the end of Republican control of legislative chambers in Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Minnesota currently has the nation’s tightest margins, with an even split between Democrats and Republicans in the House and a one-seat Democratic edge in the Senate.

Trump’s poor public approval ratings could play a role in those states. For voters choosing state house and assembly candidates, presidential approval typically has three times the impact of state legislative approval, Rogers said.

Edith Jorge-Tuñón, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, conceded that her party is in a defensive position.

“I think we knew going into this cycle, Democrats have an advantage,” said Jorge-Tuñón, whose group works to elect Republicans to legislative seats and statewide offices. But she argued that voter frustration with Democratic leadership in states like Minnesota or Oregon could provide a buffer against that advantage.

Racine could be key to Wisconsin political control

Wisconsin provides an example of how political power could swing. Democrats haven’t fully controlled Wisconsin’s government since 2010. But new legislative districts, ordered by the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court, give Democrats a shot at flipping both Republican-led chambers.

Democrats’ hopes run through downtown Racine. Located along the shores of Lake Michigan north of Chicago and south of Milwaukee, Racine is a Democratic stronghold known both for its rich manufacturing past and as the kringle capital of Wisconsin. Danish immigrants brought the buttery, oval-shaped pastry to the area in the 1800s, and bakeries in downtown Racine continue to make the sweet treats and ship them around the country.

Under Republican-drawn maps enacted in 2011, most of Racine was removed from the 21st Senate District to make the seat safe for Republicans. But the new map added back the city’s north side and more Democratic-favorable areas in Milwaukee County and removed conservative rural areas.

The Republican incumbent decided to retire rather than seek reelection under the more competitive lines, further bolstering Democratic hopes.

Democrats are optimistic they will pick up the two seats needed to flip control of the Senate in November. They need to flip five seats to gain control of the Assembly. An open governor’s office, also on the ballot, gives them a shot at full control.

“In a year like this with the president and his war jacking up the prices of gas, Democrats are in a really strong position,” said Will Karcz, spokesperson for Wisconsin Senate Democrats.

A single seat could sway power in some states

In North Carolina, Republicans need to gain just one state House seat — without losing any Senate seats — to reestablish a three-fifths supermajority. That threshold is important because it gives Republicans the ability to override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Josh Stein without needing any Democratic votes.

Iowa Republicans face a similar math equation to regain a two-thirds legislative supermajority, which could matter even more if Democrats win the race to replace Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who chose not to seek reelection.

A loss of just one state Senate seat could cost Republicans a supermajority in Florida. Meanwhile, a pickup of one seat could result in a new Democratic supermajority in New York.

Among other battlegrounds, a swing of just a few seats could break a Republican supermajority in Missouri and gain Democratic supermajorities in Colorado and Nevada.

This year’s state elections could affect 2028’s congressional elections

If Democrats are able to win full control in Minnesota, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, they could use their new trifectas to redraw U.S. House districts ahead of the 2028 elections. They would be copying tactics employed by Republicans ahead of this year’s elections in states such as Texas and Florida and by Democrats in California.

Republicans currently hold 20 of the 33 total congressional seats in those three northern states. So Democrats could make notable gains if they redraw districts to their advantage.

In Arizona and Michigan, where Republicans also hold an edge in congressional seats, redistricting would be more difficult because the task is assigned to an independent commission. California was in a similar situation. But Democratic lawmakers there placed an amendment on the statewide ballot last year allowing them to sidestep a commission to enact a new congressional map.

Both major parties are openly fundraising off the partisan redistricting stakes.

“Every election in this moment … potentially is about redistricting,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.